So just for fun, I decided to see if it’s possible to draw a VRA-compliant state legislative map of Arizona that would favor Democrats. (For those who don’t know, Arizona doesn’t have separate House and Senate Districts, they just elect two house members from each of their LDs). I was able to come up with something that would probably favor Democrats in a majority of districts (16) is neutral years, although it probably wouldn’t hold up in bad ones. For reference on the partisan numbers below, the 2008 numbers correspond to a 8.5 point Republican win statewide, whereas the 2010 averages correspond to a 12.5 point Republican win statewide.
Statewide:
District 1:
2008: 51.4% Obama, 47.0% McCain
2010: 48.7% Dem, 51.3% Rep
Voting Age Population: 70.5% White, 0.9% Black, 12.0% Hispanic 1.4% Asian, 13.6% Native American, 1.6% Other.
Most of Coconino County plus the Sedona area and Grand Canyonland. Should tilt Dem, but wouldn’t hold up in a bad year. has a decent sized Native American population, so this is an opportunity district for them, but it would probably elect a Flagstaff area Dem.
District 2:
2008: 33.2% Obama, 65.3% McCain
2010: 30.0% Dem, 70.0% Rep
Voting Age Population: 82.7% White, 0.8% Black, 12.7% Hispanic 1.3% Asian, 1.1% Native American, 1.4% Other.
Mohave and Yavapai County Republican District.
District 3:
2008: 52.6% Obama, 46.3% McCain
2010: 55.7% Dem, 44.3% Rep
Voting Age Population: 37.0% White, 0.7% Black, 10.1% Hispanic 0.9% Asian, 50.8% Native American, 1.0% Other.
Native American VRA district. Should easily elect a Native American Democrat.
District 4:
2008: 33,5% Obama, 65.3% McCain
2010: 31.4% Dem, 68.6% Rep
Voting Age Population: 63.5% White, 1.7% Black, 30.1% Hispanic 1.3% Asian, 2.1% Native American, 1.2% Other.
Lake Havasu to Yuma Republican vote sink.
District 5:
2008: 34.4% Obama, 64.5% McCain
2010: 32.1% Dem, 67.9% Rep
Voting Age Population: 85.0% White, 1.6% Black, 9.2% Hispanic 2.3% Asian, 0.7% Native American, 1.2% Other.
Northwest Maricopa County / Southern Yavapai County Republican District.
Maricopa County:
District 6:
2008: 40.1% Obama, 58.9% McCain
2010: 38.2% Dem, 61.8% Rep
Voting Age Population: 63.3% White, 3.1% Black, 24.6% Hispanic 3.7% Asian, 0.8% Native American, 1.6% Other.
Western Maricopa Republican district.
District 7:
2008: 34.4% Obama, 64.5% McCain
2010: 32.1% Dem, 67.9% Rep
Voting Age Population: 84.7% White, 1.9% Black, 8.4% Hispanic 3.1% Asian, 0.6% Native American, 1.3% Other.
Northern Maricopa Republican district.
District 8:
2008: 32.9% Obama, 65.8% McCain
2010: 32.5% Dem, 67.5% Rep
Voting Age Population: 81.1% White, 1.6% Black, 13.2% Hispanic 1.9% Asian, 1.1% Native American, 1.2% Other.
Most of this district’s population is in Eastern Maricopa County, although it spreads out to take in most of Gila County. Safe Republican.
District 9:
2008: 37.2% Obama, 61.7% McCain
2010: 35.8% Dem, 64.2% Rep
Voting Age Population: 86.4% White, 2.1% Black, 7.7% Hispanic 2.4% Asian, 0.4% Native American, 1.4% Other.
Sun City area Republican District.
District 10:
2008: 40.3% Obama, 58.4% McCain
2010: 39.8% Dem, 60.2% Rep
Voting Age Population: 74.1% White, 3.2% Black, 16.2% Hispanic 3.9% Asian, 1.1% Native American, 1.6% Other.
Oh look. More Republicans in Suburban Maricopa County. Fancy that.
District 11:
2008: 50.2% Obama, 48.5% McCain
2010: 50.8% Dem, 49.2% Rep
Voting Age Population: 46.3% White, 6.5% Black, 40.6% Hispanic 3.5% Asian, 1.5% Native American, 1.6% Other.
Dem-leaning district in Peoria, Glendale, and El Mirage. probably wouldn’t hold up in a bad year, but is a good opportunity for a Latino Democrat.
District 12:
2008: 50.4% Obama, 48.2% McCain
2010: 50.2% Dem, 49.8% Rep
Voting Age Population: 52.8% White, 5.6% Black, 34.5% Hispanic 3.3% Asian, 2.3% Native American, 1.5% Other.
Demographically and politically pretty similar to District 11, except based around Alhambra / Sunny Slope.
District 13:
2008: 39.7% Obama, 59.4% McCain
2010: 36.9% Dem, 63.1% Rep
Voting Age Population: 85.9% White, 1.5% Black, 7.2% Hispanic 3.8% Asian, 0.5% Native American, 1.2% Other.
Paradise Valley Republican vote sink.
District 14:
2008: 52.9% Obama, 45.7% McCain
2010: 50.0% Dem, 50.0% Rep
Voting Age Population: 61.2% White, 4.8% Black, 24.1% Hispanic 4.1% Asian, 4.0% Native American, 1.9% Other.
Parts of East Phoenix / North Tempe combined with some of the more purple areas of East Maricopa County. Leans Dem.
District 15:
2008: 52.2% Obama, 46.5% McCain
2010: 50.3% Dem, 49.7% Rep
Voting Age Population: 68.2% White, 3.6% Black, 22.6% Hispanic 2.3% Asian, 2.0% Native American, 1.4% Other.
East Phoenix / Scottsdale based lean Dem district.
District 16:
2008: 70.0% Obama, 28.8% McCain
2010: 73.6% Dem, 26.4% Rep
Voting Age Population: 22.4 White, 7.4% Black, 65.1% Hispanic 2.1% Asian, 1.9% Native American, 1.1% Other.
Capitol District Hispanic VRA seat. Safe Dem, obviously.
District 17:
2008: 61.1% Obama, 37.9% McCain
2010: 63.9% Dem, 36.1% Rep
Voting Age Population: 22.9% White, 6.9% Black, 65.6% Hispanic 2.2% Asian, 1.1% Native American, 1.2% Other.
West End Hispanic VRA district. Safe Dem.
District 18:
2008: 51.7% Obama, 46.8% McCain
2010: 50.8% Dem, 49.2% Rep
Voting Age Population: 49.1% White, 7.3% Black, 37.0% Hispanic 2.6% Asian, 2.4% Native American, 1.5% Other.
Lean Dem district that connects heavily Democratic areas of East Phoenix with some of the less obscenely Republican areas of Mesa using a strip of Tempe. Good opportunity for a Latino Democrat.
District 19:
2008: 51.2% Obama, 47.5% McCain
2010: 49.8 Dem, 50.2% Rep
Voting Age Population: 64.9% White, 4.8% Black, 21.0% Hispanic 5.2% Asian, 2.5% Native American, 1.7% Other.
South Tempe based tilt Dem district with a big chunk of Chandler.
District 20:
2008: 52.6% Obama, 46.4% McCain
2010: 50.2% Dem, 49.8% Rep
Voting Age Population: 55.3% White, 8.8% Black, 25.8% Hispanic 7.0% Asian, 1.3% Native American, 1.7% Other.
South Maricopa County tilt Dem district.
District 21:
2008: 37.2% Obama, 61.7% McCain
2010: 35.2% Dem, 64.8% Rep
Voting Age Population: 79.3% White, 2.5% Black, 12.5% Hispanic 3.8% Asian, 0.7% Native American, 1.2% Other.
“Hi, we’re the fucking assholes who like to keep reelecting Joe Arpaio. You’re welcome.”
District 22:
2008: 36.0% Obama, 63.2% McCain
2010: 32.9% Dem, 67.1% Rep
Voting Age Population: 76.3% White, 3.4% Black, 11.8% Hispanic 6.6% Asian, 0.6% Native American, 1.3% Other.
“US TOO!!!”
Tucson:
District 23:
2008: 39.7% Obama, 59.1% McCain
2010: 38.2% Dem, 61.8% Rep
Voting Age Population: 68.7% White, 3.8% Black, 21.5% Hispanic 1.6% Asian, 3.3% Native American, 1.2% Other.
Pinal County Republican district.
District 24:
2008: 52.2% Obama, 46.6% McCain
2010: 50.8% Dem, 49.2% Rep
Voting Age Population: 48.7% White, 4.8% Black, 34.0% Hispanic 3.3% Asian, 7.7% Native American, 1.5% Other.
This District connects Dem-leaning leftovers from Pima County with Dem-leaning leftovers in South Maricopa County using the reservations in Pinal County and some unavoidable red connective tissue. Leans Dem.
District 25:
2008: 41.7% Obama, 57.3% McCain
2010: 40.6% Dem, 59.4% Rep
Voting Age Population: 68.8% White, 2.8% Black, 22.5% Hispanic 3.2% Asian, 1.3% Native American, 1.3% Other.
Republican southern Pinal / northern Pima district.
District 26:
2008: 55.6% Obama, 43.3% McCain
2010: 54.2% Dem, 45.8% Rep
Voting Age Population: 71.5% White, 3.1% Black, 18.9% Hispanic 3.8% Asian, 0.7% Native American, 1.7% Other.
North Tucson / Catalina Foothills Dem district.
District 27:
2008: 55.1% Obama, 43.6% McCain
2010: 54.3% Dem, 45.7% Rep
Voting Age Population: 66.1% White, 5.0% Black, 21.8% Hispanic 4.0% Asian, 1.2% Native American, 2.0% Other.
East / Central Tuscon dem District.
District 28:
2008: 67.8% Obama, 31.2% McCain
2010: 71% Dem, 29% Rep
Voting Age Population: 26.0% White, 3.2% Black, 66.1% Hispanic 1.5% Asian, 2.3% Native American, 1.0% Other.
South Tucson Hispanic VRA district. Easily safe Dem.
District 29:
2008: 55.6% Obama, 43.3% McCain
2010: 55.3% Dem, 44.7% Rep
Voting Age Population: 39.5% White, 1.0% Black, 54.5% Hispanic 0.7% Asian, 3.6% Native American, 0.7% Other.
Mexican border district designed to be Democratic. Combines Democratic southern Cochise County, all of Santa Cruz County, the reservations in eastern Pima, and the Democratic parts of Yuma. Also, while not required by VRA (since it almost certainly isn’t majority Hispanic by CVAP) it would be pretty likely to elect a Hispanic Democrat, as it is 54.5% Hispanic VAP.
District 30:
2008: 35.0% Obama, 63.7% McCain
2010: 34.9% Dem, 65.1% Rep
Voting Age Population: 72.1% White, 3.3% Black, 19.8% Hispanic 2.2% Asian, 0.9% Native American, 1.7% Other.
“Hi. We’re the people responsible for electing Martha McSally over Ron Barber. Shame on us. SHAME! SHAME!”
Thoughts? I think Democrats would be favored in 16 out of 30 districts in neutral years.