I spent months reading articles by many pundits predicting that Donald Trump would self-destruct and had no chance to win the nomination. Today, top notch pundits such as Charlie Cook think the general election has begun and its Clinton vs. Trump. The prestigious website Five Thirty Eight was skeptical for months, but now believes Trump owns most of the party. The Washington Post reports GOP elites are gradually accepting reality. You may even run into David Brooks at your local bowling alley. He now admits he’s spent too much time in professional circles disconnected from all that fueled Trump’s rise.
Looking back, the one writer I recall who got this election right is David Atkins of the Washington Monthly. In November 2015- when almost everyone said Trump had no chance he wrote an article "It Really is Trump's Republican Party Now." In that article he plainly stated:
sometimes paradigms do shift, and sometimes tipping points get reached. It seems to me that the GOP’s Southern Strategy/Tea Party monster has finally broken free of its cage and its master is powerless to control it anymore.
Yes, every few decades paradigms do shift and our country reaches a political tipping point. The old rules gradually don’t apply. Old coalitions fall apart and new ones form. Political parties that are unwilling to unable to adapt become minority parties or, less frequently, go away altogether. That happened in 1824, 1860, 1896, 1932 and most recently 1980. The last few years I agreed with those who believed we were near such a tipping point.
But note David Atkins words — “the GOP Southern Strategy/tea party monster has now broken free from its cage and its master is powerless to control it anymore.”
Why should this surprise Republican Party elites or their corporate allies? There were never enough country club Republicans to create a majority or win elections. That’s where the “"Southern Strategy" or the deliberate use of racism and religion to get white voters to vote against their own economic interests came in. As this Salon article notes, that was the beginning of the end of America’s middle class.
The Republican Party believed the Southern Strategy model would always work. They thought the country club Republicans would always remain in control, and the party would always be able to reign in the worst instincts of white racists and religious extremists. But they couldn’t because in any movement there are always more foot soldiers than generals. The old line Republicans from the 1970’s and 1980’s who walk into Republican Party gatherings today report they can’t tell if they stumbled into a Klan meeting or a church tent revival — here.
Where have people like New York Times columnist David Brooks been all this time? He knew about the Southern Strategy going back to the 1970’s. He knew about the right wing media infrastructure featuring Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, and others who did nothing but spew hatred. And one day he wakes up and says our country is at a “Joe McCarthy moment” and he’s spent too much time in his professional circles?
Why have so many Republicans such as him been silent all these decades refusing to speak out against the racism, sexism and classism taking over the party?? Were they too privileged and too disconnected from everyday Americans to realize this political model was unsustainable? Did they not realize it was morally wrong? Was it simply a business decision and everyone and everything is just a number on a spreadsheet? Was it Group Think? All of the above?
Didn’t they think they actually had to do something for their voters besides teach them who to hate and who to blame?
What happened to Republicans who did speak out? The Republicans who did speak out paid a price. Examples would be Mike Lofgren — here, David Frum — here, Frank Schaeffer here, and Bob Inglis - here.
We got Trump because, as David Atkins wrote, the GOP Southern Strategy/tea party monster did finally break free from its cage and the party establishment is unable to control it anymore. Yes, the inmates have now taken over the asylum and the Republican Party is rotting at its core.
We got Trump because the Republican base now believes a lot of what the party elites wanted them to believe. We got Trump because the Republican base also has nothing but contempt for Republican Party elites and the 1%.
If the House wasn’t so gerrymandered the GOP would now be a minority party.
I’ve been asking myself if we have Trump now, what’s going to happen when the next recession comes along? Trump came along at a time when elites think the economy is excellent. After all, the official unemployment rate is 5% and the stock market is near its high. This clearly isn’t trickling down to Main Street.
Look at this fascinating study by Pew Research. The study illustrates that 73% of Trump supporters oppose Social Security cuts compared to 72% of Bernie Sanders supporters and 71% of Hillary Clinton supporters? Also, a little over half of Clinton and Sanders supporters support free trade deals while a majority of Trump and Cruz supporters oppose these free trade deals? Also, note that most Republican voters think life has gotten worse the last 50 years for people like them but most Democrats do not.
Maybe paradigms are shifting and we are in the early stages of another political realignment that many feel is overdue?
Simply put, it looks like the Republican Party is becoming a white nationalist, fair trade, anti-abortion party that will also defend Social Security & Medicare rather than turn them over to Wall Street as a ruse to gut them. What’s the difference? The Republican Party is becoming a more overtly racist and sexist party but also one that’s less appealing to the 1% given its voter base’s opposition to free trade and Social Security and Medicare cuts.
The Republican coalition will continue to be overwhelmingly white and male, and that’s a political loser because the electorate keeps getting more diverse. The Pew Research study shows that in 1980, white voters made up 88% of the electorate. By year 2000, it was 78% and that's been declining by about 2% every 4 years — in 2004 75%, 2008 73%, 2012 71%, and in 2016 the electorate is expected to be 69% white.
The simultaneous support for Social Security/Medicare but not universal health care makes no sense. Is this the result of the right wing media lies about the ACA?
The Democratic Party is becoming a fully inclusive economically progressive party. Yes, I think to some degree Bernie Sanders economic populism is the future of the party, but it will be a more intersectional economic populism that will appeal more to people of color. This will have to be as people of color continue to make up a higher percentage of the Democratic Party. Thomas Piketty hinted at this in The Guardian.
I think we can win that!
Seattle billionaire Nick Hanauer wrote an article in Politico “"The Pitchforks Are Coming For Us Plutocrats." He has a message for his fellow 1%:
And so I have a message for my fellow filthy rich, for all of us who live in our gated bubble worlds: Wake up, people. It won’t last. If we don’t do something to fix the glaring inequities in this economy, the pitchforks are going to come for us. No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality. In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated like this and the pitchforks didn’t eventually come out. You show me a highly unequal society, and I will show you a police state. Or an uprising. There are no counterexamples. None. It’s not if, it’s when
At some point in the future, is it possible the 1% have no political home??