Congratulations to Senator Bernie Sanders on winning West Virginia.
Unfortunately for Senator Sanders, he’s fallen further behind in the race for 2,026 pledged delegates. With his win in West Virginia, Sanders added another 18 pledged delegates to his total. He now needs 587 of the remaining 897 pledged delegates or 65.5% of the remaining pledged delegates.
Hillary Clinton leads by 276 pledged delegates.
According to Nate Silver’s model of remaining contests, Sanders needed to win WV by a whopping +52. Previously Sanders missed the Nate’s Guam target of +43.
Each target Sanders misses, in Nate’s improbable comeback scenario, he falls even further behind.
Which brings us to Benchmark’s models for Oregon and Kentucky.
The news isn't good for Senator Sanders. If these Benchmark models hold for Oregon and Kentucky, Sanders will miss Nate’s comeback model targets again. Sanders needs wins of +57, in OR and +35, in KY.
Benchmark’s models now show Clinton up by +1 in OR and +4 in KY. The Oregon model is surprising, because many are thinking Oregon is set up perfectly for the Senator.
This brings us to California.
I know there are folks hoping that Sanders will pull off the miracle 70% - 30% win in California, but according to Benchmark’s early model of CA that isn't happening. They’ll tweak the model as they get closer to June 7, but this current model isn't good news for Sanders. Clinton is up by +10.
Benchmark has been remarkably accurate this year. They had Senator Sanders winning WV by +14, which was closer than any pollster or aggregators of polls.
Nate Cohn’s tweet last night pretty much summed up the remainder of the Democratic race. Clinton does not need to win, but she will win again.
All she needs is 34% of the remaining pledged delegates.
I know folks like to include the superdelegate totals, but I always stick with the pledged delegate totals. They are allocated by the vote. Superdelegates, to me, just affirm the pledged delegate final results.