On May 26, 2016, the day he clinched the nomination, I set the Bethesda 1971 Trump Withdrawal Watch (TWW™) at zero. By June 3, it had risen to 25%.
After Hillary’s June 2 “His Hand on the Button???” speech, Trump’s “No Race I Insult can judge me” comments and other factors, the TWW™ rose to 30% in just three days At that time, I wrote:
The main factor will be the polls. Trump has only two things he can talk about semi-coherently: vicious attacks, and polls in his favor. If polls widen against him, he likely will not be able to handle it.
Now the polls are shifting — The Bloomberg Poll shows a 12 point HRC lead (and 55% “would never vote for him”), and they’re part of a perfect storm pushing up the TWW™, including Trump’s Unhinged Bizarro, Strangelovian response to the Orlando attack. Hence, the 12 point jump.
Note: This series is just about whether he will withdraw voluntarily — not whether the “establishment” will take it away from him. I don’t think that will happen, except perhaps behind the scenes.
Remember, at 42%, the odds are still against withdrawal. Yet my gut feeling is Trump won’t be able to handle being consistently way behind in the polls. Being an almost sure loser for four months (to a chick!!!) will be too much for the consummate snake-oil salesman, egomaniac narcissist.
What do you think? Is it still zero? Is 42% way too high? Way too low? Please comment and take the poll.
Watch this space. And please, please, remember:
- Bethesda 1971 expressly disclaims any and all responsibility for any direct or consequential loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from reliance on the TWW™.
- None of the information or analyses presented in this Diary or in the TWW™ are intended to form the basis for any investment decision and no specific recommendations are intended.
(My lawyers insist.)