Former Phoenix police Sgt. Paul Penzone is waging a rematch against notorious Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio after losing by a surprisingly close 51-45 margin four years ago, by far the worst showing of Arpaio's decades-long career. Now Penzone has released an internal poll from Strategies 360 that has the challenger leading the incumbent by a 48-44 spread, which KPNX's Brahm Resnick says "might be the first time any candidate has topped Arpaio in a public opinion survey in recent memory."
Penzone's poll also asked about Arizona's presidential and Senate races within the confines of Maricopa, the state's largest county and home of almost 60 percent of its population. Maricopa tends to vote similarly to the state as a whole, so Donald Trump's 44-39 lead on Hillary Clinton and GOP Sen. John McCain's 50-35 advantage on Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick suggest that this poll is by no means too favorable too Democrats. If anything, the opposite is true, as the Huffington Post Pollster average has Clinton ahead 42-40 statewide.
Arpaio's response is also telling. His campaign manager declared that Penzone's poll was "completely fabricated" and "phony," claiming that Arpaio "ha[s] internals that tell a much, much different story." But you know what we're going to tell you next: At no point did this staffer actually provide any details on those supposed internal polls. If you're going to question someone's numbers, you have to provide contradictory data of your own. Otherwise, you're the one who winds up looking like the phony.