On February 28, when only four states had conducted primaries, I posted a piece here at Daily Kos with the projected delegate counts I calculated for all of the remaining states and territories.
The projection said Hillary Clinton would have 1,789 pledged delegates today.
The count at fivethirtyeight.com says that she has 1,770. My count says that she has 1,774. The difference between the projection, and these counts, is about 1%.
The projection said Bernie Sanders would have 1,481 pledged delegates today.
The count at fivethirtyeight.com says that he has 1,500. My count says that he has 1,496. The difference between the projection, and these counts, is about 1.25 %
The chart below shows that the projected delegate counts for both candidates were close to the real delegate counts throughout the primaries. The pink and dark purple lines trace Hillary’s projected
and real totals. The green and orange lines trace Bernie’s projected and real totals.
The projection was least accurate during the first half of March. For example, on March 8, after the results in Michigan and Mississippi, the difference between the projection and the real total for each candidate was 23, or 3% for Hillary and 4% for Bernie.
The delegate totals projected for the later primaries were more accurate
In the chart, the dashed lines to the right represent the projection for the remaining primaries and estimated results.
The final pledged delegate totals projected on February 28, still stand.
Hillary Clinton — 2,207
Bernie Sanders — 1,844
Here’s the detailed tally of the projection compared to the real results.
The first four states were projected in an earlier piece with maps that illustrated the winners in each congressional district.