On July 5, President Obama and Hillary Clinton will campaign together for the first time this cycle, a sort of pre-convention kickoff to the general election. Originally, the event was supposed to be in Green Bay, Wisconsin, a state where Democrats have won in seven straight presidential elections. That would have been a safe, traditional kind of event. But following Donald Trump's disastrous week, the Clinton campaign sees no advantage in playing it safe, and is kicking off this campaign on offense by switching it up and starting in purple North Carolina.
It’s a reminder of the fluidity within the swing state universe, but also a sign of Trump’s decline in national and swing state polling over the past two weeks. Holding Clinton’s highest-profile rally yet in North Carolina suggests national Democrats see an opportunity to go on the offensive and expand their map there—an investment that could have a higher return than placing it in a battleground state like Wisconsin where Republicans have lost in seven straight presidential elections.
“It does send a message. The only things that’ve really changed [since the event was originally scheduled for Wisconsin] that I think are notable have been that Bernie [Sanders] supporters have consolidated around Clinton as the nominee and Trump has taken another big pivot by doubling down on Trumpisms. It gives them the sense — it’s not yet foot-on-the-neck time, but it’s time to be aggressive,” said Democratic strategist Dan Kanninen, Obama’s state director for Wisconsin in 2008. “Rather than go back and defend your blue wall, go chase him into North Carolina.” […]
“The fact that their first joint appearance will be in Charlotte proves what we have been saying all along. North Carolina is in play. Our state’s importance on the electoral map is evidenced by the races for president, governor and U.S. Senate all trending in favor of the Democrats,” said Raleigh lawyer Bruce Thompson, a member of Clinton’s national finance committee. “Donald Trump has virtually no presence here and is a drag on the rest of the GOP ticket. Hillary Clinton has a field staff in place and is investing heavily in media. She has the momentum in North Carolina and is capitalizing on it. North Carolina has clearly become an important state in this election.”
And that investment from the Clinton campaign will help beyond the presidential matchup.
Democratic candidates Roy Cooper (for governor)and Deborah Ross (for senator) are going to join the rally and will certainly get a boost in their campaigns from the Clinton efforts in the state. It'll be Clinton's second trip in two weeks to North Carolina, a state Obama narrowly won in 2008 and lost in 2012. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading there by 1 percentage point. The HuffPost Pollster polling average shows them tied.
The map is expanded with Trump, no question, and it's to Clinton's credit that she's taking advantage of that and going for the jugular early on.