Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) say Arctic ice reached a record low for the month of May and could easily set an all-time record low later this year. The culprit is a persistent warm trend in the region, often spiking 5 degrees Fahrenheit or more above average:
Another way to put it is this: The Arctic Ocean this May had more than three Californias less sea ice cover than it did during an average May between 1981 and 2010. And it broke the prior record low for May by a region larger than California, although not quite as large as Texas.
This matters because 2016 could be marching toward a new record for the lowest amount of ice ever observed on top of the world at the height of melt season — September. … “We’ve never seen anything like this before,” said Mark Serreze, who directs the center.
The last record low ice cover for the region was set in September 2012. Scientists say that so far, 2016 is about “two to four weeks” ahead of that record-setting year in terms of melting and remaining ice cover.
Among climatologists, the term “ice free” usually refers to less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice. By that definition, some models conclude the Arctic could effectively be ice free for at least part of the year before the middle of this century—especially if the more recent climate trends continue.