Leading Off:
● NV-Sen, OH-Sen: While GOP candidates continue to promise primary voters that they'll somehow do the impossible and repeal Obamacare, Republicans have largely refrained from attacking the program in their general election commercials this cycle. That's a change from the recent past, when Team Red constantly sought to tie Democrats to the Affordable Care Act in 2014, an effort they reprised last year for the gubernatorial elections in conservative Kentucky and Louisiana, albeit with mixed success. However, as largely trumped-up horror stories about the law have largely faded from the headlines, Obamacare no longer seems like the electoral Kryptonite for swing state Democrats that it was just two years ago, and the topic hasn't made a major appearance on the campaign trail this time around.
It may, however, have just been a temporary lull, as two big Republican groups are betting that healthcare can still undermine Democrats in key Senate races. In Nevada, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is putting at least $1 million behind a spot against Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, which starts with a clip of Masto saying she'd have voted for Obamacare. The narrator then argues that, thanks to the program, premiums are skyrocketing and tens of thousands of Nevadans lost their health insurance (never mind, of course, that insurance companies have always been free to hike premiums and were much freer to deny coverage before passage of the ACA).
Over in Ohio, OneNation features the owner of a local machine repair shop arguing that Obamacare forced the company off a previous insurance plan and led to increased deductibles. A clip of GOP Sen. Rob Portman then plays where he calls for repealing and replacing Obamacare, though of course he doesn't go into details about what the replacement would look like—because the conservative replacement for Obamacare is Obamacare. In any event, we'll know whether Republicans really believe this is still a potent attack if they stick with the same topic through the fall, but it could just be a head-fake.
2Q Fundraising:
● OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R-inc): $3.8 million raised, $13 million cash-on-hand. Note: Portman says he is giving $1 million of his quarterly haul to the state Republican Party for voter outreach efforts.
● WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D): $4.1 million raised
● CA-52: Denise Gitsham (R): $304,000 raised, $306,000 cash-on-hand
● MN-02: Angie Craig (D): $450,000 raised, $200,000 self-funded, $1.8 million cash-on-hand
● WA-07: Pramila Jayapal (D): $750,000 raised; Brady Walkinshaw (D): $400,000 raised
Senate:
● FL-Sen: The Senate Leadership Fund, a well-funded GOP group close to Mitch McConnell, promised to aid Sen. Marco Rubio if he sought re-election, and they're making good on that pledge, with a reported $1.5 million TV reservation from July 15 to 22. SLF, however, has not yet announced if they'll be praising Rubio, savaging rich guy Carlos Beruff, Rubio's wealthy foe in the Aug. 30 primary, or hitting Rep. Patrick Murphy, the Democratic candidate Republicans would least like to face.
There's good reason to believe they won't waste time on Beruff, though, who's trailed Rubio by horrific margins in every public poll. Beruff is releasing his first new TV spot since Rubio joined the race two weeks ago, but he doesn't go after the incumbent. Beruff instead denounces "folks in Washington" who have decided they're "going to make your choices and run your life," arguing that the same officials who are forcing people to buy health insurance are now "dictating who uses your bathrooms at school!" Declares Beruff: "Obama may not have ISIS under control, but he's got the toilets taken care of." Beruff also once again channels Donald Trump by pledging that "[i]t's time to clean house and put America first." Real nice guy, isn't he?
Beruff's blend of nativism and conservative hysteria might have been effective in an open seat race, but it's a very different contest with Rubio in the picture. If Beruff wants to win, he's going to need to convince Republican primary voters that Rubio in particular needs to be fired, not just that Congress in general sucks. As we've noted before, only three House members have lost their primaries so far in 2016, and all were special cases: Two feel victim to redistricting and one was under indictment. In other words, Beruff can't just hope that general voter disgust with Congress will doom Rubio and carry him to victory. Maybe Beruff will zero-in on Rubio as we get closer to Election Day, but he doesn't have a lot of time to make his case before early voting starts Aug. 20.
Beruff also isn't making much of a case to his own supporters as to why he might even have any kind of shot next month. Beruff's team is out with an OnMessage poll showing him trailing Murphy just 42-40 in a hypothetical general election, which is a lot better than the 47-30 deficit SurveyUSA recently found. Beruff is arguing that the poll proves he can defeat Murphy, but it notably doesn't include numbers for Rubio, nor did Beruff release any data on the primary; seldom has a dog's failure to bark been more noticeable. In other words, Beruff isn't arguing that Republicans should nominate him because he'll have a better chance to keep this seat red, or even that he has a shot against Rubio, he's just arguing that he wouldn't be DOA in a general election. Convincing stuff!
● NV-Sen: We're still four months from Election Day, but the TV spots are flying fast in the Silver State. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto continues to emphasize her time as state attorney general, calling passage of an anti-sex-trafficking bill she supported "the proudest day of my career." The commercial then features footage of GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, a prominent supporter of Republican nominee Joe Heck, praising Masto at the 2013 bill signing for her passion and determination in pursuing the legislation.
Sandoval also pops up in a new GOP commercial. OneNation praises Sandoval for bringing a Tesla factory to Nevada, and says that Heck is providing funding for career and technical education. Not incredibly exciting stuff.
● NH-Sen, PA-Sen: In addition to their Nevada and Ohio spots (see our lead item above), the conservative group OneNation is out with two other new commercials, which Politico says constitute final part of a $16 million buy. In New Hampshire, they praise GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte's work combating the heroin crisis. And in Pennsylvania, they describe how a teacher got out of prison and ended up getting another job at a school, where he abused students and even murdered one. The rest of the ad praises Republican Sen. Pat Toomey for fighting for background checks to keep predators out of schools. (Yes, a Karl Rove ad is calling for "background checks.")
● WI-Sen: Democrat Russ Feingold is up with another TV spot. The ad accuses Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of being a hypocrite for running as a non-politician in 2010, only to immediately go Washington. The commercial continues to argue that Johnson favors business interests over Wisconsin.
Gubernatorial:
● MO-Gov: Eric Greitens really, really, really wants Missouri Republicans to know that he's a combat veteran. And sure enough, his latest TV spot starts with the narrator telling the viewer, "You know that Eric Greitens is a Navy SEAL, that he hunted terrorists and commanded an Al Qaeda targeting unit." As Greitens is shown warming up in a boxing ring, the narrator continues by saying that Greitens will take on career politicians and fight for conservative values like lower taxes and "the sanctity of life and the Second Amendment." And in case the boxing metaphor wasn't obvious enough, after the narrator notes that Greitens was a boxing champion and says, "When it comes to fighting corruption…," the candidate himself jumps in and concludes, "They'll never know what hit 'em." The GOP primary is Aug. 2.
House:
● AZ-05: State Senate President Andy Biggs is up with his first TV spot ahead of the Aug. 30 primary for this safely red seat. The narrator rushes through Biggs' conservative accomplishments and notes that retiring Rep. Matt Salmon backs him as a list of other supporters scrolls by, before saying that Biggs will "lead the fight to protect our homeland, put an end to illegal immigration, and stop wasteful spending." Yep, it's one of those commercials that tries to cram way too much into just 30 seconds, which just leads to a boring and forgettable ad.
● CA-24: All the ballots are finally counted from California's June 8 top-two primary, and businessman Justin Fareed's election night lead over Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian, a fellow Republican, has held. Fareed edged Achadjian 21-18 for the second place general election spot, and he will face Democrat Salud Carbajal, a Santa Barbara County supervisor, in November.
Fareed's win over Achadjian was a small surprise. Fareed had only narrowly fallen short in the 2014 primary, but Achadjian represented about two-third of this seat in the legislature, a much stronger base of support to start any congressional campaign. However, Achadjian had trouble raising cash throughout most of the campaign while Fareed's ties to the medical industry helped him bring in money. Fareed notably ran one truly brotastic ad that may have just resonated with conservative voters much more than it resonated with us.
National Democrats were also worried that both Fareed and Achadjian might advance to the general, and they ran some ads against Achadjian portraying him as an extremist on abortion and immigration. That may have cost Achadjian just enough moderate votes to deny him a place in the general election. Obama carried this seat 54-43, and Carbajal starts out as the favorite. So far, neither party has reserved fall airtime here.
● FL-04: The University of North Florida takes a look at the Aug. 30 primary for this safely red seat, and they give ex-Jacksonville Sheriff John Rutherford a 27-13 lead over attorney Hans Tanzler III, the son of a former Jacksonville mayor. State Rep. Lake Ray takes 9, while St. Johns County Commissioner Bill McClure grabs 2. Both Rutherford and Tanzler have already begun running ads here.
● MI-08: A little over a month ago, actress Melissa Gilbert dropped her campaign against freshman GOP Rep. Mike Bishop, but Team Blue isn't leaving this 51-48 Romney seat uncontested. On Wednesday, Democrats announced that Suzanna Shkreli, an assistant prosecutor in Macomb County, will be their replacement candidate.
Gilbert's name will still be on the Aug. 2 primary ballot. However, once Gilbert "wins" the Democratic nomination and formally drops out of the race, election officials should be able to deem her "unfit to run," and the Democratic Party will give the nod to Shkreli. At least, that's the plan: Bishop is calling for Secretary of State Ruth Johnson not to let Gilbert off the ballot. Johnson, a fellow Republican, says her office won't consider the matter until after the primary.
Shkreli faces plenty of challenges against Bishop. For starters, she'll need to raise a good deal of money in just four months, an unenviable task. Shkreli also starts with minimal name recognition, since none of Macomb County is in the 8th. Before we can get a proper read on the situation, we'll need to see if national Democrats help Shkreli raise money and make fall ad reservations here, or if they just decide to triage this contest—assuming the ballot switcheroo works in the first place. Daily Kos Elections currently rates this seat as Safe Republican.
● TN-08: State Sen. Brian Kelsey, one of the legion of Republican candidates seeking this safely red open seat on Aug. 4, is taking to the airwaves. Kelsey's spot, which appears to be the first commercial of the campaign, features a shot of the capitol dome in scaffolding, as Kelsey declares, "The building isn't the problem. It's the politicians." (Too bad Kelsey didn't say that fixing the dome would remove the evil spirits housed within. Now that would be an interesting message!) Kelsey then brags about his conservative record, including "perfect ratings from the NRA, Right to Life, and Small Business."
● WA-07: State Rep. Brady Walkinshaw is out with his first TV spot in this safely blue Seattle seat, and it's memorable in a good way. Right off the bat, a woman declares of Walkinshaw, "He is gay. He is Latino. He is Trump's worst nightmare." That's certainly a compelling message in a seat as diverse and liberal as this one. Other people praise Walkinshaw as a real leader who cares about the environment, but commercial wisely puts the best line at the beginning. Walkinshaw's main foes in the Aug. 2 top-two primary are state Sen. Pramila Jayapal and King County Councilor Joe McDermott. It's likely that two of those three candidates will advance to the general, though it's possible that a minor contender could take one of the two spots instead.
Grab Bag:
● Demographics: Using the Census Bureau's population estimates for 2015, a new report from the University of North Carolina's Carolina Demography consultancy gives Democrats reasons to feel good about the state's demographic trends. North Carolina's population grew by roughly half a million from 2010 to 2015, and several decidedly Democratic cities accounted for a disproportionate share of that growth.
The state's two largest cities, Charlotte and Raleigh, comprise just 13 percent of the population yet saw 27 percent of the growth over those years, an increase of nearly 140,000. Charlotte is the 17th-largest American city yet its raw increase of almost 90,000 was the ninth-biggest of any city in the country. Blue-leaning Durham, Cary, and Greensboro round out the state's top five growth centers. These growing major cities have also continued trending Democratic recently, compounding the problems Republicans face as North Carolina grows more diverse.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.