Now this is interesting. Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder of Kansas, who didn't even have a Democratic challenger in 2012 and won with 60 percent of the vote in 2014, has gone ahead and released an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies showing him with a 53-36 lead on Democrat Jay Sidie. Sure, that looks like a healthy edge, but why would a guy who represents a district that went for Mitt Romney by a 54-44 margin apparently feel the need to calm some jitters?
It's not all that hard to figure out the reason: Donald Trump. Yoder's memo says in bold type that he's "out-running Donald Trump by a wide margin." But while that might once again seem like good news for the incumbent, it carries with it grave danger. That's because, according to this same poll, Hillary Clinton is carrying this district—by a 44-38 margin! Even in 2008, when he was putting up his best-ever numbers, Barack Obama still lost Kansas' 3rd to John McCain 50-49.
And there's supporting evidence in the form of a recent statewide SurveyUSA poll, which found Trump winning by a pitiful 44-39 spread. Obama lost Kansas by 22 points four years ago, but Clinton's down by just 5, which represents a 17-point shift. That same year, he lost the 3rd District by 10 points, so if you apply that same 17-point adjustment, you'd get a Clinton lead of 7 points—almost identical to what POS has.
Now, let's not kid ourselves. This is still a conservative district, and Yoder has a massive cash advantage over Sidie, $2.2 million to just $73,000. It'll therefore be hard for Sidie to tie Yoder to Trump without outside help. But Republican anxiety does seem to be real. If you burrow down deep into Yoder's lengthy poll memo, it mentions that he ran ahead of Mitt Romney by 15 points. But as we noted above, no Democrat even ran against Yoder that year. That's almost the definition of protesting too much. Democrats, we should note, held this district until the 2010 GOP wave, and this is precisely the kind of seat that could turn blue once again in a Trumpocalypse.
Please give $3 to Jay Sidie to help him capitalize on this extraordinary opportunity.