While most outlets have focused on what Donald Trump's refusal to endorse Paul Ryan might mean for Ryan, the bigger story is whether Trump's lack of impulse control just cost him Wisconsin, a state that's critical to Trump's effort to expand the map against Clinton. In fact, it's one of four Rust Belt states, along with Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, that his team thinks are essential to beating Clinton.
Even as some Republicans have crowed that Trump's stance against the TPP trade deal gives him an edge in all those states, the truth is that Wisconsin has always been challenging territory for the GOP nominee. He got blown out by Ted Cruz there, 48 to 35 percent, mostly because GOP Wisconsinites are downright frightened by the great Orange meringue-head.
More than half of Wisconsin Republicans said they were concerned or scared of a Trump presidency -- and that group gave nearly three-quarters of its votes to Cruz.
So any GOP candidate with a shred of discipline might be buddying up to Speaker Paul Ryan, who is pretty popular among GOP voters in the state. Not Trump! Still seething over Ryan's one-time reluctance to back him, the wounded narcissist just couldn't let it go, using the speaker’s own words against him almost verbatim: "I'm just not quite there yet," he told the Washington Post Tuesday.
Oh, Donnie—always playing the long game. Here's a few data points of interest from some recent Marquette University Law School polls taken before the conventions:
•84 percent of GOP voters in Ryan's district viewed him favorably in June and July, while just 49 percent of them viewed Trump favorably;
•48 percent of all voters statewide viewed Ryan favorably in July, while 33 percent didn't, compared to Scott Walker's 38 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval; Trump is viewed favorably by just 29 percent of registered Wisconsin voters;
•Hillary Clinton led Trump in July, 43 to 37 percent in a head-to-head matchup among Wisconsin registered voters, very consistent with June when Clinton beat Trump 42 to 35 percent;
•Only 80 percent of Republicans said they'll support Trump in the most recent survey, 3 percent would vote for Clinton, and 15 percent aren't sure what they'll do. Meanwhile, 93 percent of Democrats support Clinton while 3 percent support Trump, and 4 percent aren't sure how they'll vote.
So yeah, Trump slighted an elected Republican who's far more popular in a state that’s already stacked against him—on an electoral map that’s already stacked against him.
Clearly, damage control just started with Mike Pence’s endorsement of Ryan. Sorry Trump: You’re a petulant fool.