Yesterday the New York Times posted a fascinating article showing a timeline of the when 111 prominent Republicans they identified came out against Trump.
The timeline has Trump’s most outrageous statements on the right with the Republicans who have come out against him on the left. Other campaign milestones like the date Trump secured the GOP nomination and the dates of the RNC Convention are also noted. The 26 Republicans on their list who’ve taken the extra step of endorsing Clinton rather than simply denouncing Trump are highlighted in blue.
This sent me down a rabbit hole of analyzing Wikipedia’s much longer list of Republicans Opposing Donald Trump. Who are these Republicans? What kinds of offices did they hold? And which ones have endorsed Hillary Clinton?
More about that after the jump.
What Those Republicans Said in Denouncing Trump
Before getting into the analysis of which Republicans oppose Trump, I wanted to share a few quotes from the New York Times’ article from prominent Republicans denouncing their own party’s nominee for President. This is just a few of the many gems found at the article.
“Trump ... is employing the kind of hateful rhetoric and exploiting the insecurities of this nation, in much the same way that allowed Hitler and Mussolini to rise to power in the lead-up to World War II.”
Christine Todd Whitman,
Former Governor of New Jersey
December 18, 2015
“A presidential candidate who boasts about what he’ll do during his ‘reign’ and refuses to condemn the K.K.K. cannot lead a conservative movement in America.”
Ben Sasse,
U.S. Senator (Nebraska)
February 28, 2016
“I am ever more confirmed in my belief that Trump is a sociopath, without a conscience or feelings of guilt, shame or remorse.”
Gordon J. Humphrey
Former U.S. Senator (New Hampshire)
August 4, 2016
Check out the article for more.
Historical Examples of Public Intra-Party Opposition
Wikipedia’s list of Republicans Against Trump is even more extensive than the New York Times: as of August 29, 2016, it listed 212 GOP individuals and organizations that publicly opposed their party’s nominee. Many have said they have never voted for a Democrat before in their life.
As far as I can tell, the degree of the intra-party opposition post-convention seems to be almost unprecedented. There is no corresponding list on Wikipedia for Democrats Against Clinton this year, nor for Republicans Against Romney in 2012.
Ronald Reagan won in landslides in 1980 and 1984. Although President Jimmy Carter faced a hard-fought primary battle against Senator Ted Kennedy in 1980, I could find no evidence of anything like prominent Democrats named on a “Democrats Against Carter” list after the primaries ended. Reagan won 49 states in 1984, but I could not find a list of “Democrats Against Mondale.” A search for Democrats who even endorsed Reagan turned up random celebrities like boxers Mohammed Ali, Floyd Patterson, and Joe Frazier, but I could not find a list for either 1980 or 1984 of Democrats who held elected office endorsing Reagan.
In 1972, President Richard Nixon was re-elected with a landslide 507 Electoral Votes despite Democrats retaining control of the U.S. House and Senate due to an unprecedented degree of ticket-splitting voters. That year, there was a prominent organization called Democrats for Nixon headed by John Connelly, a former Governor of Texas and Secretary of the Navy under John F. Kennedy, who said that Democratic nominee George McGovern’s ideas were “all too isolationist in character and also too radical in character.” According to Wikipedia, the committee included Mayor Beverly Briley of Nashville, Tennessee, former Governor of Florida Farris Bryant, Mayor of Boston John F. Collins, Mayor Thomas G. Dunn of Elizabeth, New Jersey, Teamsters president Frank Fitzsimmons, Governor of Virginia Mills E. Godwin, Jr., Mayor of Miami, Florida David T. Kennedy and Leonard Marks, former head of the United States Information Agency. Other prominent names for New York State included former New York City Mayor Vincent R. Impellitteri, former NYC Deputy Mayor Ed ward F. Cavanagh, and Niagara Falls Mayor E. Dent Lackey among the better known. But of these, many had supported Nixon in 1968 as well as other Republican officeholders in the past. Connelly himself had served as Nixon’s Secretary of the Treasury before resigning to create “Democrats for Nixon.” He was the only cabinet-level name I could find associated with the group, and the fact that he already served in Nixon’s cabinet doesn’t sound like he was a die-hard Democrat who couldn’t normally imagine ever supporting a Republican before. (In fact, he would officially become a Republican in 1973 and later ran unsuccessfully for the GOP Presidential nomination in 1980.) Except for Connelly and the Governors of Florida and Virginia — all three from southern states in the early days of the GOP’s Southern Strategy — none of the other members that I could find held prominent office above the municipal level.
In 1964, the Republicans nominated Barry Goldwater (R-AZ), who was such an extremist that many down-ballot Republicans wanted to avoid association with him to protect their own re-election chances. One television ad called “Confessions of a Republican” featured actor William Bogart, a Republican, expressing concerns about Goldwater. The ad was intended to let Republican voters know that their nominee was so extreme that it was natural for Republicans to reject him without abandoning their party entirely. Some prominent Republicans publicly withheld their support for Goldwater after he got the nomination, like Senators Jacob K. Javits (R-NY), Kenneth B. Keating (R-NY), and Senate Minority Whip Thomas Kuchel (R-CA), while others like Washington’s gubernatorial candidate Dan Evans tried to avoid being photographed with Goldwater even when they were at the same rally. Governors Nelson Rockefeller (NY) and George Romney (MI) refused to endorse him or campaign for him, while others like former Vice President Richard Nixon did the somewhat tepid, “I support my party’s nominee.” Some moderate Republicans tried to create a “Republicans for Johnson” organization but could not get prominent names associated with it. Republican citizen groups opposed to Goldwater advocated, “Split your ticket … not your country.” Despite this, I could not find a list of significant numbers of Republican public officials who publicly opposed Goldwater or endorsed Johnson. Not in great numbers, at least.
I suppose the biggest intra-party opposition to a party’s candidate would have been 1912, when Teddy Roosevelt formed the Progressive Party to run against his former Republican Party’s nominee, William Howard Taft, and actually got more electoral votes. But that’s a whole different ball game.
212 Prominent Republicans Oppose Trump; 53 of Them Endorse Clinton
So as far as I can tell, it’s pretty unprecedented – short of trying to create a brand new party – for a few hundred prominent, high level elected and appointed officeholders to publicly oppose their own party’s nominee for President after the nominating convention. Much less for more than 50 of them to publicly endorse the major opposition’s party’s nominee.
To be clear, this list doesn’t include those who denounced Trump during the primary but then quieted down afterwards, a common practice in many contested primaries. It only includes those Republicans who have publicly announced that they are not supporting him even after he already secured the GOP nomination.
Of these, 53 (25%) also endorsed Hillary Clinton and/or publicly said they were going to vote for her, which I interpreted as effectively the same thing. Another 7 (3%) endorsed Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. The remaining 152 (72%) denounced Trump but it was not listed whether they planned to vote third party, vote for Clinton without endorsing her, write in someone else, or skip voting in the presidential race at all. One, Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL), has announced that although he cannot support Trump, he also cannot support Clinton because of her support of the Iran nuclear deal and therefore will be writing in Colin Powell’s name … who also supports the Iran nuclear deal. (Powell also very likely isn’t even listed as a registered write-in candidate in Illinois, so the write-in won’t even be recorded.) But like others who’ve mentioned a name other than Clinton or Johnson, Kirk is just listed as Anti-Trump here.
I also looked at Wikipedia’s list for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 endorsements. Of these, 51 were tagged as Republican, so a few were missing from this listed that were captured on the Republicans Against Trump list.
Types of Republicans Against Trump
Broader Groups |
Simply
Anti-Trump
|
Endorsed
Hillary Clinton
|
Endorsed
Gary Johnson
|
Total |
Percent |
Public Officials |
101 |
36 |
6 |
143 |
67% |
Other Notable Individuals |
49 |
17 |
1 |
67 |
32% |
Republican Groups |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1% |
TOTAL |
152 |
53 |
7 |
212 |
100% |
Perhaps surprisingly, only seven Republicans denouncing Trump endorsed Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate whose ostensible fiscal conservativeness might seem more palatable to them. Perhaps Johnson’s admitted marijuana use was a turn-off, or some of the wackiness of the Libertarian Convention. Maybe it was just recognizing that under Duverger’s Law, our current system doesn’t make it realistic for third parties to win.
But I think looking at who has denounced Trump, and which of them have endorsed Clinton, tells us even more. For the first time, numerous prominent party officials are denouncing their own party’s nominee — including both of their living ex-presidents, nine former cabinet-level officials, 82 other federal executive officials, 31 current and former members of Congress, and nine current and former Governors, among many others.
Detailed Breakdown of Republicans Against Trump
Republicans Against Trump |
Simply
Anti-Trump
|
Endorsed
Hillary Clinton
|
Endorsed
Gary Johnson
|
Total |
Public Officials |
101 |
36 |
6 |
143 |
Executive Branch |
65 |
28 |
0 |
93 |
Presidents |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cabinet-Level |
4 |
5 |
0 |
9 |
Other Administration |
59 |
23 |
0 |
82 |
Congress |
23 |
5 |
3 |
31 |
U.S. Senate |
10 |
2 |
0 |
12 |
U.S. House |
13 |
3 |
3 |
19 |
State-Level |
13 |
3 |
3 |
19 |
Governors |
6 |
2 |
1 |
9 |
Other Statewide Officials |
2 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
State Legislators |
3 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
Municipal Officials |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
Other Notable Individuals |
49 |
17 |
1 |
67 |
Republican Party Officials |
10 |
5 |
1 |
18 |
Academics & Media |
36 |
3 |
0 |
39 |
Business Leaders |
2 |
8 |
0 |
10 |
Republican Groups |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
College Organizations |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
TOTAL |
152 |
53 |
7 |
212 |
And those that have endorsed the rival major party’s nominee aren’t just one or two high-level officials with a handful of municipal officeholders. The 53 Republicans who have endorsed Hillary Clinton include five Cabinet-level officials and 23 other GOP Administration officials, two former Governors, two former Senators, and one current and two former U.S. Representatives, among other prominent Republicans.
And digging just into the Executive Branch officials opposing Trump reveals why:
Breakdown of Executive Branch Republicans Opposing Trump
Executive Branch Type |
Simply
Anti-Trump
|
Endorsed
Hillary Clinton
|
Endorsed
Gary Johnson
|
Total |
Total
Percent
|
National Security |
26 |
2 |
0 |
28 |
31% |
State |
15 |
9 |
0 |
24 |
26% |
Defense |
12 |
4 |
0 |
16 |
18% |
Commerce |
4 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
7% |
Politics / Policy |
3 |
3 |
0 |
6 |
7% |
Justice |
3 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
5% |
Environment |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
2% |
Health |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1% |
Treasury |
0 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
2% |
Total |
63 |
28 |
0 |
91 |
100% |
Of the 91 Executive Branch officials who oppose Trump, 31% come from National Security positions, with 26% from the State Department and another 18% from the Defense Department. Basically, three-quarters of the Executive Branch who denounce Trump are coming from a foreign relations perspective. They’re freaked out by the idea of him having access to nuclear weapons or creating an international incident with an ill-tempered remark.
These are also the executives most likely to endorse Clinton, too. Not surprisingly, the highest number of the GOP executive department endorsements for Clinton come from the State Department where across the board Clinton was given high marks for effectively managing the department. Naturally, those who used to work there, even before her tenure, will be in a better position to recognize her effectiveness.
And none are endorsing Gary Johnson because they know that if they’re really serious about not wanting Trump in the Oval Office, they have to vote for Clinton. Single member districts with plurality winners essentially force a two-party system.
A Deeper Look at the Clinton Supporters
Here’s a breakdown of the 53 Republicans who have publicly announced they plan to vote for Clinton.
Executive Branch Officials
State Department
- Richard Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State; also Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
- Robert Blackwill, 20th United States Ambassador to India; also Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning, The White House
- R. Nicholas Burns, 19th Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs; also United States Ambassador to NATO and to Greece
- James K. Glassman, Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs
- Frank Lavin, United States Ambassador to Singapore; also Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade
- Shirin R. Tahir-Kheli, Ambassador and Senior Advisor for Women's Empowerment; also Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Democracy, Human Rights and International Operations, National Security Council, The White House
- Betty Tamposi, Assistant Secretary of State for Consular Affairs; also a New Hampshire State Representative
- Peter Teeley, United States Ambassador to Canada
- Robert Tuttle, United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom
Defense Department
- Michael B. Donley, Secretary of the Air Force
- Alberto J. Mora, General Counsel of the Navy
- Gale Pollock, Major General; Deputy Surgeon General of the United States Army
- Paul Wolfowitz, 28th United States Deputy Secretary of Defense
National Security
- John Negroponte, Director of National Intelligence; Deputy Secretary of State; Deputy National Security Advisor
- Brent Scowcroft, National Security Advisor
Commerce
- Carlos Gutierrez, 35th United States Secretary of Commerce
- Carla Anderson Hills, 5th United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; 10th U.S. Trade Representative
Environment
- William K. Reilly, 7th Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
- William Ruckelshaus, 1st and 5th Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
Health
- Scott Evertz, Director of the Office of National AIDS Policy
Justice
- Charles Fried, Solicitor General; also Associate Justice, Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court
- Dan Webb, U.S. Attorney
Politics / Policy
- Jim Cicconi, Special Assistant to the President and Special Assistant to the Chief of Staff for President Ronald Reagan; Assistant to the President and Deputy to the Chief of Staff for President George H. W. Bush (1989–90)
- David A. Gross, U.S. Coordinator for International Communications and Information Policy
- Lezlee Westine, Assistant to the President for Public Engagement and Intergovernmental Affairs (Public Liaison)
Treasury
- Henry Paulson, 74th United States Secretary of the Treasury
- Rosario Marin, Treasurer of the United States
- Fred T. Goldberg, Jr., Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Tax Policy; Commissioner of Internal Revenue
U.S. Congress
U.S. Senate
- Former Senator David Durenberger (R-Minnesota)
- Former Senator Larry Pressler (R-South Dakota)
U.S. House of Representatives
- Rep. Richard L. Hanna (R-New York)
- Former Rep. Connie Morella (R-Maryland)
- Former Rep. Chris Shays (R-Connecticut)
States
Governors
- Former Gov. Arne Carlson (R-Minnesota)
- Former Gov. William Milliken (R-Michigan)
Other Statewide Officials
- Robert S. Smith, Retired Associate Judge of the New York Court of Appeals
Other Notable Individuals
Republican Party Figures
- Max Boot, former foreign policy advisor to Sen. Marco Rubio
- Matt Higgins, former press secretary for New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
- Robert Kagan, former foreign policy advisor and speechwriter
- Jimmy LaSalvia, cofounder and former president of the now defunct GOProud
- Mark Salter, former aide to Sen. John McCain
Conservative Academics, Journalists, and Commentators
- Reuel Marc Gerecht, writer
- Peter Mansoor, historian
- Tom Nichols, national security affairs scholar
Leaders in Business
- Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Netscape and founder of Andreessen Horowitz
- Mike Fernandez, founder of MBF Healthcare Partners
- Seth Klarman, founder of Baupost Group
- Hamid R. Moghadam, CEO of Prologis, Inc.
- James Murren, Chairman and CEO of MGM Resorts International
- Chuck Robbins, CEO of Cisco Systems
- Harry E. Sloan, former CEO of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
- Meg Whitman, CEO of Hewlett Packard Enterprise and former CEO of eBay
The Down-Ticket Effect and Those Who’ve Left the GOP
For some Republicans, it got so bad that they actually left the party entirely, perhaps disgusted with the GOP voters themselves. Iowa State Senator David Johnson left the GOP and declared himself “no party,” as did Mayor John Labrosse and Deputy Mayor Kathleen Canestrino of Hackinsack, New Jersey. Mayor Danny Jones of Charleston, West Virginia became an independent and endorsed Gary Johnson, while Utah State Senator Mark B. Madsen actually switched to the Libertarian Party when he endorsed Johnson. And former Massachusetts Governor William Weld is now Gary Johnson’s Vice Presidential running mate on the Libertarian ticket, though whether he plans to remain a part of the Libertarian Party after the election remains to be seen.
But most seem to be taking the 1964 “Split your ticket … not your country” strategy in order to protect down-ticket races. Most seem to be trying to paint Trump as out-of-the-mainstream, as no true Republican. Down-ticket candidates in tough re-election fights are trying to suggest to voters that Trump’s extremism isn’t normal, and that they can reject Trump without abandoning the GOP or other Republican candidates.
But Trump isn’t an aberration. He is a manifestation of what the party has evolved into, and if Trump hadn’t harnessed GOP’s dark anger, someone else would have. Trump wasn’t just sprung on the party. He wasn’t picked by party bosses in a backroom deal and imposed on the voters. He didn’t mask his hateful ideas and rhetoric until after he clinched the nomination, tricking the voters until it was too late. The Trump that attacked a gold star family and claimed a judge couldn’t be impartial because of his Mexican heritage was the same Trump that was attacking Mexicans and Muslims throughout the entire primary campaign — and, in the process, won a record number of primary votes for a GOP nominee.
Trump’s racism and ignorant conspiracy theories aren’t unusual for a Republican nominee. He’s just not as adept as his predecessors at covertly messaging that only to the base, not to the rest of the country. Trump’s extremism isn’t unique to his candidacy; it’s welded into the party platform and in its DNA, and not by Trump’s own doing.
This is what the GOP has evolved into. The GOP voters picked Trump and they did so knowing exactly what they were voting for. These Republicans may denounce their nominee and may even endorse our nominee, but that’s not enough. If they can’t see that Trump didn’t create the GOP’s toxic hate, but rather latched onto what was already there, then they won’t be able to fix their own party. They have to either reject their party entirely or publicly recognize their party’s problems and commit to addressing them. Otherwise the GOP will be facing the same problem with another insurgent candidate in 2020.