If you’re like me, you’ve read literally scores of articles about what The Orange Menace might or might not say about immigration tomorrow night in Arizona (including those based on interviews with surrogates).
Let me cut to the chase. Despite having no sources within the Trump campaign, I can tell you that I’m absolutely certain that: Deranged Donald will say absolutely nothing about undocumented people who have committed only immigration-related offenses (e.g. illegal entry, unauthorized work, etc.).
Well, okay. I’m a little wrong there. He’ll say that they’ll be treated humanly. No more details than that will be provided.
Why do I believe that?
I’m not alone — others get it, too
Take a look at this 538 chat:
harry: I’m less interested in what he says than how he says it. That’s part of what got Trump in so much trouble in the first place. It’s one thing to say we’re going to build a wall. It’s another to talk about Mexicans as rapists.
micah: Nate, you’re playing into people’s stereotypes about how we don’t care about issues.
natesilver: 180 degrees wrong! It’s not a fucking policy speech!
micah: It might be.
natesilver: It would be disrespectful to policy speeches to see it as a policy speech.
[Underlining and so forth added to Nate’s comment.]
Now well I prefer not to cuss in my posts or comments, I think Nate nailed it. Trump never has been, nor never will be, about “policy.”
At the risk of quoting a hard-core Repub who used to be a speech writer for the dreaded Dubya (Michael Gerson), I’m afraid everything he says below is absolutely correct IMO:
In no particular order, Trump has shifted his position on raising the federal minimum wage (against it, for it, get rid of it, leave it to the states, put it at $10 an hour); on fighting the Islamic State (bomb the “hell out of them” and take the oil fields, let our regional allies take the lead, declare war and send in troops, let Russia take care of it); on taxes for the wealthy (increase them, cut them dramatically, make the wealthy pay more, make everyone pay less); on his Muslim ban (exclude all Muslims, keep Muslims out except for members of the military and current residents, it was “just a suggestion,” ban Muslims from countries with a history of terrorism, impose “extreme vetting”); on the national debt (eliminate it in eight years, prioritize massive infrastructure spending, renegotiate debt with creditors, just “print the money”).
There Is No “f’g Policy!” (only messaging):
[I’m quoting Nate Silver there :-) ]
Okay, so Trump will “build a big beautiful wall” and “deport the criminals on day one.” And he did release a tax plan (apparently written by Stephen Moore), and give a rather empty speech on foreign policy. But in must other cases (as you can see above), there’s nothing. Nada. Zip. Zero.
What this is obviously about is messaging. He’s not going to lose his hard-core supporters (as long as he doesn’t agree to amnesty), and the majority of his voters who are voting against Hill are not going away.
So-o to Whom is he talking?
You’ve all seen the data: Trump is doing unusually poorly with Republican women. It’s not just college-educated female Repub voter, or college-educated male Repub voters. It’s especially women, regardless of educational levels. (The qualifier “white” s/b understood here, w.r.t. these demographics.)
Goldie Taylor got it exactly right in The Daily Beast, when talking about The Orange Menace’s recent speeches on race:
Perhaps most tellingly, newly installed campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said she was “moved” by Trump’s recent speeches and appeals to black voters, as a white woman. Conway, a Republican pollster, is believed to be the mastermind behind the new strategy. Working on behalf of conservatives like Dan Quayle, Ted Cruz, Todd Akin, and Fred Thompson, Conway understands the politics of white fear. Harnessing that into Trump’s bastardized version of a tough love-style “Sista Souljah” speech is nothing more than a cheap ploy. [Boldface added]
KellyAnne says: You NOW have ‘permission:’
To all those white, GOP-voting/leaning women, who have always wanted to see a woman whom they like in a position of power — here’s KellyAnne, mother of four small children, and successful enough to be the first GOP Presidential Campaign Manager in history.
She’s talking to you. Not just directly, but also through the candidate. And her persona and image are part of the sale.
What she’s saying, directly and through The Orange Menace is:
Donald Trump is not a racist. He’s not a bigot. He cares about African-American people, and their situation. That’s why he’s talking to them. In a moving way. And that's why I’m moved!
He also cares about undocumented people. He’ll be humane. I trust him. He’s MOVED me.
I’m not just some random surrogate, I’m a very high-profile professional, with small children. And I believe in him, and you also should believe in him. Watch him tow the line, as I have gradually, incrementally “softened” his rhetoric. He just needed a little good advice, from a smart woman. like you!
Trust me. He’ll be a great President. You have permission to vote for him. Believe in him, as I do!
Bottom Line:
This immigration speech isn’t going to have a thing in the world to do with “policy.” We will hear nothing new. (Critically, we will not hear him re-affirm the idea that all undocumented people will be deported.)
However, the “kinder, softer, gentler” Deranged Donald will be on display, along with the “build the wall, and deport the criminals” Orange Menace.
It’s just another part of the last-minute image remake that’s being put into place, in order to reassure, and win back Repub voters (especially women).
I’m probably not the first person to predict this. Please post links in the comments!