NextGen Climate and Project New America have been checking in on the nation’s millennials (18-34 year olds) in 11 battleground states, and the news is encouraging (crosstabs here).
For context, in 2012, Barack Obama won the 18-29 vote 60-37, and the 30-44 vote 52-45. So while there’s no apples-to-apples age comparison, it’s certainly hard seeing Donald Trump matching Romney’s 37 percent. Indeed, the trends are pulling him further and further away from that number.
There is also good news among Bernie Sanders’ former millennial supporters:
Of those not voting Clinton above, about 15 percent would vote Democratic if Sanders was the nominee, so-called “Sanders holdouts.” That number was 20 percent in July, thus also shrinking.
On other fronts, Clinton’s 44-54 favorable-unfavorable rating is up a net 18 points compared to the July results. Donald Trump has actually gone from a net-negative 48, to minus 52—23-75. The only person tested less popular than Trump is Vladimir Putin at 10-64. Even Lord Voldemort and Ryan Lochte rate higher. And both of those guys are assholes.
Furthermore, 73 percent of millennials agree that “Donald Trump is a racist.” And 27 percent disagree, which means that 27 percent of millennials are racist. Not coincidentally, 25 percent of respondents think that Donald Trump respects women.
The poll further confirms things we already know about millennials, such as their appreciation of diversity (87 percent love it). We learn that they are no different than everyone else in thinking Trump should release his tax returns (72 percent).
But the news is not completely rosy. Young voters are among the worst-performing voters—a factor that gives the GOP life in a depressingly large number of elections. And in this poll, almost a quarter of respondents (23 percent) say they wouldn’t vote for president given the two-way choices. That number goes down to 16 percent if given Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. Now, those holdouts won’t be dispositive in the presidential, but it will hurt us downballot in close legislative races.
And while that “won’t vote” number is down from July, it is down only marginally (two points), so little, in fact, that it could very well be statistical noise.
But the overall trends continue to play in our favor, and presents a key bulwark against further polling gains by Trump.