Start spreading the news: We have New York! Yes, Daily Kos Elections’ project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide has arrived in the Empire State. You can find our complete data set here, which we're updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available. You can also click here to learn more about why this data is so difficult to come by.
Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump 59-37 in the two candidates’ mutual home state, a drop from Barack Obama’s 63-35 win over Mitt Romney in 2012. Clinton carried 18 of the state’s 27 congressional districts, losing six seats that Obama won four years earlier. Rep. Sean Maloney is the only Democrat who holds a Trump seat, while Rep. John Katko is the only Republican with a Clinton constituency, so we’ll start with a look at their districts.
Obama carried Maloney’s 18th District, located in the Hudson Valley north of New York City, 51-47, while Trump took it 49-47. Republicans didn’t seriously target this seat, and Maloney beat his underfunded foe 56-44. However, Maloney pulled off a slim 50-48 win during the 2014 GOP wave, and Republicans may be more inclined to target this seat in the future.
Clinton, meanwhile, won Katko’s 24th District, which is based around Syracuse in upstate New York, by a 49-45 spread, but that was a much tighter showing than Obama’s 57-41 victory. National Democrats hoped that Katko’s punishing 59-40 win over incumbent Dan Maffei in 2014 was just a fluke, and both parties spent real money here last year. However, Katko defeated Colleen Deacon, a former district director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, by a huge 60-39 margin.
We’ll turn next to the five GOP-held seats that swung from Obama to Trump. The 1st District, which covers eastern Long Island, gave Obama a tight 49.6-49.1 victory, but it lurched violently to the right in 2016 and supported Trump 54-42. Team Blue lost this seat in 2014 to Republican Lee Zeldin, but they hoped to retake it last year. However, national Democrats didn’t end up spending much in this expensive district (which falls into the New York City media market), and Zeldin defeated Anna Throne-Holst 58-42. The neighboring 2nd District also went from 52-47 Obama to 53-44 Trump. Democrats haven’t made a serious effort to oust longtime GOP Rep. Pete King in ages, and Trump’s easy win isn’t going to help things.
The Staten Island-based 11th District, which is held by Republican Rep. Dan Donovan, went from 52-47 Obama to 54-44 Trump. Staten Islanders are notorious for embracing the exact kind of resentment-fueled politics that’s Trump’s stock-in-trade, so the result here was unsurprising. In 2014, Republican Rep. Michael Grimm defeated his Democratic opponent 55-42 despite being under indictment on tax evasion charges, portraying his prosecution as politically motivated. Grimm resigned the next month after pleading guilty, but Democrats were unable to find a competitive candidate for the ensuing special election. Donovan won that race 58-40, and Team Blue didn’t target him last year.
The 19th District, located in the rural Hudson Valley, was the scene of heartbreak for Democrats. While Obama carried the seat 52-46, Trump won it 51-44. Team Blue hoped that well-funded law professor Zephyr Teachout could beat ex-state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso in this open-seat race, but Faso won 54-46. Finally, the rural 21st District in New York’s North Country, hard up by the Canadian border, swung from 52-46 Obama to 54-40 Trump. Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik decisively won the race to succeed a retiring Democratic congressman in 2014. National Democrats showed some momentary interest in trying to unseat her last year but didn’t spend much here, and Stefanik easily won her second term 65-30.
Two upstate New York House seats that narrowly backed Romney in 2012 were also very amenable to Trump. The Utica-area 22nd supported Romney only 49.2-48.8, but went for Trump 55-39. Democrats targeted this open seat in 2016, but Republican Claudia Tenney beat Democrat Kim Myers 46-41, with wealthy independent Martin Babinec taking 12. (Babinec had pledged to caucus with the GOP if he won.) The 23rd District, which includes New York’s Southern Tier, went from 52-48 Romney to 55-40 Trump. Unsurprisingly, Republican Rep. Tom Reed won another term 58-42 in a race that dropped off national Democrats’ radar long before Election Day.
There was one competitive seat where Clinton improved on Obama’s performance. Obama carried the 3rd District, which is located in the middle of Long Island, 51-48, while Clinton took it 51.6-45.5 Democratic Rep. Steve Israel retired in 2016, and while both parties initially planned to compete heavily here, national Republicans canceled their ad reservations a month before Election Day; Democrat Tom Suozzi ended up winning 53-47.