“The leaks are real — but the news is fake”, which is how Donald Trump is trying to cope with the fact that the intelligence community is pushing back against a president* they see as compromised and demonstrably incompetent. For all the good that it is doing, for all that it is keeping pressure on Trump and the people around him, there’s a couple of worrying possibilities.
It’s no secret Trump wants to govern like a CEO — no checks or balances, just total control. Stephen Miller’s remarks about absolute presidential power are chilling. (This is why running a government like a business is a recipe for an authoritarian dictatorship.)
From the viewpoint of the intelligence community, they’ve had recent experience with being burned by a White House determined to make the facts fit their policies. Has everyone forgotten how the CIA was called incompetent by the NeoCons of George W. Bush for NOT finding weapons of mass destruction in the run-up to the Iraq War they ‘knew’ had to be there? When none were found after the invasion, the story changed to the CIA misled the White House by saying there were WMD’s present when there weren’t. They don’t want to go that route again, even if George Tenet did get a Medal of Freedom out of it.
There’s also the problem that Trump is breathtakingly incompetent when it comes to national security — the open air crisis briefing at Mar-A-Lago, his use of an unsecured phone, the chaos in his administration, the information (which we’re only getting hints about) that suggest he’s thoroughly compromised by Russia… All this and more must give any member of the intelligence community who believes in their job real doubts about the Commander in Chief.
Given all that, it’s not surprising there are leaks. Trump is a national security risk like none we’ve ever seen, sitting right there in the Oval Office. The question is this:
Will the intelligence community leak enough material to force the removal of Trump? Will they be able to get enough outrage going to force the Republican Congress to impeach him or remove him for incapacity under the 25th Amendment?
Bad possibility #1: Trump is forced out, and VP Pence takes over. In which case we end up with a president who is just as much of extremist as Trump in a different way — but less obviously incompetent or crazy. We also have the problem of the deep state effectively forcing a coup. Given the failure of so many of our institutions that are supposed protect the integrity of our Republic, that may be the best we can hope for.
Bad Possibility #2: Trump remains in place. Trump goes to war with the intelligence community, and wins. Purges follow; Trump loyalists are installed and the nation’s security apparatus becomes Trump’s own KGB. The FBI is halfway there as long as Comey is in charge, especially with Jeff Sessions at DOJ. Trump’s already using the leaks as a rationale for bringing the agencies to heel. At which point, he’ll have his own dedicated secret police/spy network.
Either way, it’s “Not good” as the saying goes.
The Bigger Picture
This could well be the way the scenario plays out in the descent into fascism described by Sarah Robinson back in 2009. We’re at stage 3:
...America’s conservative elites have openly thrown in with the country’s legions of discontented far right thugs. They have explicitly deputized them and empowered them to act as their enforcement arm on America’s streets, sanctioning the physical harassment and intimidation of workers, liberals, and public officials who won’t do their political or economic bidding.
This is the catalyzing moment at which honest-to-Hitler fascism begins. It’s also our very last chance to stop it.
Setting up for stage four is what Paul Krugman was talking about today, in “The Silence of the Hacks”. At what point does the GOP establishment decide they have more to lose than to gain by continuing to back Donald Trump? So far, Krugman sees no signs of them ready to act against Trump, despite increasingly good reason to do so.
It’s not a constitutional crisis — yet. But Donald Trump is facing a clear crisis of legitimacy. His popular-vote-losing win was already suspect given the F.B.I.’s last-minute intervention on his behalf. Now we know that even as the F.B.I. was creating the false appearance of scandal around his opponent, it was sitting on evidence suggesting alarmingly close relations between Mr. Trump’s campaign and Russia. And nothing he has done since the inauguration allays fears that he is in effect a Putin puppet.
How can a leader under such a cloud send American soldiers to die? How can he be granted the right to shape the Supreme Court for a generation?
Again, a thorough, nonpartisan, unrestricted investigation could conceivably clear the air. But Republicans in Congress, who have the power to make such an investigation happen, are dead set against it.
Robert Reich offered up a Facebook post today that suggests a rationale prevailing in the GOP establishment, based on a conversation with a Republican acquaintance.
Me: But don’t they know the Trump issues are just going to get worse? Republicans need to get ahead of this or they’ll get bulldozed by it.
He: McConnell and Ryan don’t see it that way. They figure Trump will continue his circus act, stirring up the press, driving everyone crazy. So they can quietly work with Pence and get their agenda through when no one is paying much attention.
Me: You mean Trump is a decoy?
He (chuckling): Yeah. At least for now.
Back to Robinson for what happens when push finally comes to shove:
What awaits us? In stage four, as the duo assumes full control of the country, power struggles emerge between the brownshirt-bred party faithful and the institutions of the conservative elites — church, military, professions, and business. The character of the regime is determined by who gets the upper hand. If the party members (who gained power through street thuggery) win, an authoritarian police state may well follow. If the conservatives can get them back under control, a more traditional theocracy, corporatocracy, or military regime can re-emerge over time. But in neither case will the results resemble the democracy that this alliance overthrew.
Paxton characterizes stage five as “radicalization or entropy.” Radicalization is likely if the new regime scores a big military victory, which consolidates its power and whets its appetite for expansion and large-scale social engineering. (See: Germany) In the absence of a radicalizing event, entropy may set in, as the state gets lost in its own purposes and degenerates into incoherence. (See: Italy)
Where’s Maxwell Smart when you really need him? Chaos Is Lurking
If you haven’t gotten enough to lose sleep over yet, the chaos surrounding Trump means there are other scenarios that could play out, not the just the war with the intelligence community. Lurking in the shadows is someone who is prepared to ride chaos for all its worth. As Nancy Le Tourneau sums it up,
With both the NSC and the State Department in chaos and out of the loop, who’s in charge of foreign policy? No surprises there. It’s the same guy that got himself a seat at the NSC table with an executive order the president didn’t even read.
The NSC itself is being bypassed on key decisions by a small group of highly ideological advisers around Trump led by his chief strategist, Steve Bannon, a former Breitbart News executive with ties to the far right.
This is why, for Steve Bannon, chaos is a feature – not a bug. While everyone else is either running around putting out fires or left out of the loop entirely, he is operating quietly behind the scenes, pulling the strings to implement an ideologically-driven foreign policy that is uncorrupted by pesky things like facts and expertise.
Ryan and McConnell may not be as smart as they think they are. Bannon is probably prepping for stage four — he’s likely counting on it.
Meanwhile, You Are Being Tracked
And one more thing. You may want to start getting paranoid about your personal tracking devices — phones, laptops, etc. The BBC has a warning for visitors to America that should give anyone pause. If you’re already in this country, NPR notes police have the tools to make your phone give up tons of information on you without you even knowing it. If you’re going to any demonstrations, you may want to leave your phone home, or turned off — and you can already see the problems that creates...
Welcome to the Village.