On Tuesday, CBS Sports reported that Tommy Tuberville, who served as head coach of the Auburn University football team from 1998 to 2008, was considering seeking the GOP nomination to replace termed-out and scandal-tarred Alabama Republican Gov. Robert Bentley. Tuberville hasn’t said anything publicly, and news that he's looking at a bid apparently caught the head of the state party by surprise. However, CBS’ Dennis Dodd says that Tuberville will decide in the next week or two, and that a statewide poll is currently in progress that could help him make up his mind.
A Tuberville candidacy would be pretty unusual for a few reasons. College football is a very serious deal in the Deep South, and the rivalry between Auburn and the University of Alabama is no small thing. It’s generally accepted that Alabama fans far outnumber Auburn fans in the state. A 2012 Public Policy Poll of GOP presidential primary voters found that respondents backed the Crimson Tide over the Auburn Tigers 58-28; a 2014 analysis from the New York Times also found Auburn fans clustered around the town in the western eastern part of the state, while Alabama dominated everywhere else.
Alabama supporters likely haven’t forgiven Tuberville for beating them for six years in a row, and if they still hold it against him, he could have a tough time advancing. The state requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in the primary to avoid a runoff, so Tuberville couldn’t just rally Auburn fans to a plurality victory. The state hasn’t been completely unwilling to elect Auburn football alumni; Fob James, who was a Tigers’ star halfback in the 1950s, was elected governor in 1978 as a Democrat and in 1994 as a Republican. However, Tuberville famously enjoyed trolling Crimson Tide fans when he beat their team, so his crossover appeal may be much more limited.
Tuberville also hasn’t been a Yellowhammer State resident in a long time. Tuberville was born and raised in Arkansas, and since his Auburn gig ended in 2008, he’s coached at Texas Tech and Cincinnati; Tuberville only resigned as head coach at Cincinnati in December of last year. Tigers’ fans may not care, but voters who see his Auburn past as a negative won’t be so easy to persuade.
Next year’s GOP primary will likely be dominated by outgoing Gov. Bentley’s sex scandal. Bentley is currently under investigation for allegedly using state resources to cover up an affair with a staffer, though it’s far from clear if the GOP-dominated legislature will end up suspending him from office, removing him altogether, or doing nothing. No one has entered the race yet, though plenty of Republicans are looking at this contest. Democrats are hoping that Bentley’s problems will give them an opening, but it won’t be easy to win in one of the most conservative states in the nation. However, it still may be easier to imagine a Democratic governor of Alabama than an Auburn governor of Alabama.