Charlie Cook/National Journal:
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans
Trump’s low approval ratings and energized Democrats could make the midterms worse than usual for the GOP.
So what could tip off House Republicans to potential losses in their future? The first thing might be a sitting president with low job-approval ratings; after all, midterm elections are usually a referendum on the party holding the White House. Through Wednesday night, the Gallup’s three-night tracking poll showed 43 percent of the 1,500 adults interviewed nationwide approving of President Trump’s performance so far, 52 percent disapproving. For Trump’s first four weeks in office, his approval ratings were 45 percent, 43 percent, 41 percent and last week 40 percent.
Each of these measurements is the lowest of any newly elected president in the history of polling. It doesn’t mean that Trump’s numbers cannot rise above the low to mid-forties, but in the absence of a 9/11-type trauma, presidents see their job-approval ratings decline over the first two years as their early honeymoon period ends. A better reading is that since Trump didn’t get a honeymoon, his numbers might not drop as precipitously as his predecessors’, but he could still get stuck in the low 40s.
Glenn Thrush/NY Times:
Speaking to the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday, Mr. Trump launched what was easily the most blistering attack on the media and corporate elites of his already bellicose and eventful presidency. His speech also included a promise to throw undocumented immigrants “the hell out of the country” and a recitation of his law-and-order campaign promises. It represented a not-entirely friendly takeover of CPAC, an establishment Republican group whose leadership once viewed the party’s surprise standard-bearer as a noisy interloper.
Mr. Bannon, the former Breitbart chief executive who has a hand in nearly every scripted public Trump utterance, had expressed a similar sentiment at the conference the day before. “If you think they’re going to give you your country back without a fight, you are sadly mistaken,” he said during an appearance with Reince Priebus, the White House chief of staff. “Every day, it is going to be a fight.”
His onstage discussion, it turned out, was a philosophy-infused preview of Mr. Trump’s populist broadsides, with an admonition to anyone who continues to underestimate the determination of the Trump White House to disrupt the Washington establishment.
That’s the problem, there. Too much emphasis on Washington establishment, not enough on the rest of the country. Bannon and trump are Chaos agents, and they are trying to take this country down a very dark road. Wake up and stay woke.
Josh Kraushaar/National Journal:
Why the GOP Coalition Is So Unstable
Stephen Bannon’s nationalist vision has taken over the Republican Party, and traditional conservatives worry about the diminishing enthusiasm for key parts of their agenda.
The Pew Research Center’s latest survey found just 23 percent of adults identified themselves as Republicans—near an all-time low in the firm’s last three decades of polling. Among voters who leaned towards a party, 52 percent associated more closely with Democrats, while 38 percent leaned Republican. Democrats hold an 11-point advantage on self-identification over the GOP, up from a 3-point edge immediately after the presidential election. That sounds alarming for the GOP, but a few important caveats are in order. A disproportionate number of self-proclaimed Democrats aren’t registered to vote, or infrequently show up to the polls. And an outright plurality of voters are identifying as independent, totaling 37 percent in the latest Pew survey.
The data help explain why Trump’s support among Republicans is historically strong, even as his overall approval numbers are poor. He’s maintaining strong loyalty from a dwindling number of partisans, but losing ground with independents and engendering deep animosity from Democrats
Carl Chancellor/USA today:
Those blindsided by the 2016 presidential election results -- and there were millions -- needed only to have considered one of our nation's most tumultuous eras, Reconstruction, to understand that the seeds of Donald Trump's unanticipated victory were planted more than 150 years ago.
Born in the aftermath of the bloody Civil War, Reconstruction was America's attempt to make good on its founding promise of civil and political equality. The Reconstruction years of 1865 to 1877 saw newly freed slaves in the South voting and holding office for the first time. The pre-eminent authority on the period, Eric Foner of Columbia University, calls Reconstruction "the nation's first great experiment in biracial democracy."
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Josh Marshall/TPM:
You've probably seen that today the White House held a daily gaggle (an informal, off-camera Q&A) in which only a few select news outlets - including Breitbart, The Washington Times and One America Network - were allowed to attend. CNN, NYT, LAT, Politico and apparently others were barred. In other words, two shlock 'news' outlets and one highly conservative but still legitimate news organization. The places breaking the unwelcome Trump/Russia stories are blocked.
CNN is in high dudgeon over this, as are other outlets, which is entirely understandable. But I'd like to make a basic point about how we should see this, how journalists and news organizations should treat this. I think it is both more accurate and more productive to see this as cowardice rather than some sacrilege against journalism.
Mark Joseph Stern/Slate:
Docs vs. Glocks Shows the Threat to Free Speech Is the Pro-Gun Right
Florida Republicans argue that the Second Amendment trumps the First Amendment. They’re wrong.
CNN:
Steve Bannon outlines his plan to 'deconstruct' Washington
There are three pillars of Trump's plan
"I kind of break it up into three verticals of three buckets," Bannon said. "The first is kind of national security and sovereignty and that's your intelligence, the Defense Department, Homeland Security.
"The second line of work is what I refer to as 'economic nationalism' and that is Wilbur Ross at Commerce, Steven Mnuchin at Treasury, (Robert) Lighthizer at Trade, (National Trade Council head) Peter Navarro, (adviser) Stephen Miller, these people that are rethinking how we're gonna reconstruct our trade arrangements around the world.
"The third, broadly, line of work is what is 'deconstruction' of the administrative state."
Politico:
Trump tweets anger at FBI while White House scrambles to contain fallout
The White House is pushing back against the media after a report revealed Priebus asked FBI to knock down a damaging story.