District 27 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Roxann Robinson. This seat was challenged by a Democrat in the last cycle. In that race Hugo won by a 3,014 vote margin out of just 17,600 cast. This looks like a challenging district, but the numbers below show some real opportunity here.
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There are a total of 21 precincts in District 27 all within Chesterfield County. The Democrat in the last race only won 4 of those precincts, although there were many with only narrow victories for the Republican. All of the data charts below focus on precinct level detail.
Here is the Partisan Vote Share by Precinct:
Looking at the above chart shows that, while the Republican enjoyed stronger support across the board, 3 of the top 5 precincts in terms of total vote for the Republican also have the largest number of active registered voters that did not vote for either candidate. That would indicate there is some level of opportunity in those precincts.
Here is a chart showing the Margin of Victory per Precinct:
So I set the chart to put Republican on the positive side of the ledger so we can clearly see where the lowest margins were. Targeting South Manchester through St Luke's precincts would be an early priority to at least look at. Particularly when cross referenced by what we find in the scatterplot coming up.
The final scatterplot shows actual vote totals for Republicans and Democrats compared to total registered active voters in the district. It becomes very clear there is work to do across the board. The precincts that deserve the first look are those that fall below the red line for the Republican and above the blue line for the Democrat. Those precincts represent some level of softer support for the Republican and represent a potential source of volunteers and more active support for the Democrat.
This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis that can be done simply based on publicly available data. There is a deeper analysis that can be done for sure.
You can request a file from the ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 27, let her know you are a candidate or working on the campaign if you are a member of the campaign committee.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017.
Note: My name is Donald Braden. This was posted to my blog on my website The Full Slate Project.