Multi Millenial? Here we have a graph (E) showing 2.3 m/°C, and that at 2°C, which we are fast approaching we could have from 5 to 10 meters of sea level rise before 2026, mostly coming from the melting of the polar ice caps (C) and (D) with a smaller contribution from melting glaciers (B) and the (A) coeficient of expansion for the water in the oceans as it warms.
Meanwhile we lose the EPA’s institutional memory and expertise. NOAA and NASA are threatened.
This was published online July 15, 2013 slightly before the last IPCC report in 2014. It didn’t take into account the melting of the sea ice and permafrost and the rapid increase in methane releases. What it did do was tie the sea level rise to the temperature rise so that we can effectively ignore the rather foolish optimism of thinking that hitting 2°C would take millenia.
Sea-level commitment per degree of warming as obtained from physical model simulations of (A) ocean warming, (B) mountain glaciers and ice caps, and (C) the Greenland and (D) the Antarctic Ice Sheets. (E) The corresponding total sea-level commitment, which is consistent with paleo-estimates from past warm periods (PI, preindustrial, Plio, mid-Pliocene; see text for discussion).
Temperatures are relative to preindustrial.
Dashed lines and large dots provid linear approximations:
(A) sea-level rise for a spatially homogeneous increase in ocean temperature;
(A, D, E) constant slopes of 0.42, 1.2, and 1.8 and 2.3 m/°C.
Shading as well as boxes represent the uncertainty range as discussed in the text.
(A–C) Thin lines provide the individual simulation results from different models (A and B) or different parameter combinations (C).
The small black dots in D represent 1,000-y averages of the 5-million-year simulation of Antarctica following ref. 36.
Who are the climate change deniers here?
In 2015 heatwaves in Asia and Europe killed people by the thousands and the IPCC warned the tropics were becoming uninhabitable. The refugees from the war in Syria are actually climate change refugees because what is really causing the problems there are water shortages, crop failures and famines as thirty % of the planet has become more arid in the last decade.
In 2016 as the sea ice in the arctic and antarctic crashed, reefs died, oceans became starved of oxygen and more acidic, the loss of the phytoplankton, boreal forests, and rain forests we might think of as our planets lungs increased rapidly, and Maine lobster and cold water fish started heading for Labrador
Last year there were four category four storms ongoing in the Pacific at once.