District 66 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Kirk Cox. He ran in an uncontested race last cycle. He drew 12,683 votes in that race.
DISTRICT 66 FAST FACTS
There are 17 precincts in District 66. Chesterfield County has the most at 12 while Colonial Heights City has 5. The rate of active voters is even higher for Chesterfield County as well
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality:
While it appears most of the work will be in Chesterfield County looking at that pie chart, it behooves us to break down the data further.
This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by locality.
This chart simply reinforces where most of the opportunity lies, Chesterfield County. This does reveal that there is some small gains to be made in Colonial Heights City as well.
Here is chart showing the vote share of active vote rs by precinct. The initial at the beginning of each precinct name indicates the locality the precinct is in, (C) Chesterfield and (CH) Colonial Heights.
Breaking it down by precinct is somewhat revealing. There really is opportunity across the board in this district.
The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.
This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis that can be done simply based on publicly available data. There is a deeper analysis that can be done for sure.
You can request a file from the ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 66, let her know you are a candidate or working on the campaign if you are a member of the campaign committee.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017.
Note: My name is Donald Braden. This was posted to my blog on my website The Full Slate Project.