District 84 is being contested by a Democratic candidate this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican Glenn Davis. He ran uncontested last cycle. In 2015 Davis drew 6,810 votes in that uncontested race. It is great to see a Democrat run in this district. It is ripe for the picking.
DISTRICT 84 FAST FACTS
District 84 is made up of 17 precincts in the Virginia Beach City locality. It is probably a heavy military area just off the Norfolk area.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Precinct:
Registration rates appear fairly stable across precincts. That indicates that, while always important, I am not sure I would prioritize voter registration drives in this particular area. I would need to look at more detailed make that assessment for certain though.
This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by precinct.
With such low participation it is pretty clear opportunity abounds across the district. That said, focusing on the areas with the largest volume of people who did not vote last cycle probably represents the ripest territory to start with.
The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. that one red dot way off to the right all by itself is prime territory for certain. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.
This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis that can be done simply based on publicly available data. There is a deeper analysis that can be done for sure.
You can request a file from the ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 84, let her know you are a candidate or working on the campaign if you are a member of the campaign committee.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017.
Note: My name is Donald Braden. This was posted to my blog on my website The Full Slate Project.