There are no Democratic candidates in District 78 competing for the seat currently held by Republican Jay Leftwich. 2013 was the last year the Democrats challenged for this seat. The Republican only drew 4,689 votes in 2015. This district is more than ripe for the picking. That is abysmally low participation.
There are twenty-three precincts in Chesapeake City. This participation rate is very low. Participation is a measure number of votes cast divided by total active voters. Given that low rate, this district is more than ripe for the picking.
Let's take a look!
Total Vote Share
I post this pie chart just to show the scale of non-participation in this race. I know this seat is not contested, but the fact that the Republican can not even draw 5,000 votes is a great indication of weak support. Opportunity abounds!
Let's look at the next chart.
Here is the partisan vote share by precinct:
The above bar chart illustrates that opportunity is everywhere. Not at all surprising given the low participation rate. Work every precinct hard and you will be in a fantastic position to win.
The final chart is a scatterplot showing the Republican vote set against the total of active registered voters by precinct. I would target the precincts that fall below the red line. The further right and below the line the weaker the support for the Republican and the more opportunity for a Democratic campaign.
This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis that can be done based on simple, publicly available data. There is a deeper analysis that can be done for sure.
You can request a file from the ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 78, let her know you are a candidate or working on the campaign if you are a member of the campaign committee.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017.
Note: My name is Donald Braden. This was posted to my blog on my website The Full Slate Project.