NOTE: My name is Donald Braden. This diary was originally posted on my blog at The Full Slate Project.
There is no Democratic candidate contesting District 1 as yet this fall. The first filing deadline has passed, but the party can still place candidates on the ballot through the next deadline of June 13th. Republican Terry Kilgore currently holds this post. The Republican was able to secure 16,716 in this uncontested district the last cycle. That is relatively strong support for a race not contested since 2007. Even so, it is important Democrats try and field a candidate in every district.
The Roanoke Times wrote an editorial this morning about Virginia Democrats gathering there this weekend to talk about how to connect with rural Virginians. It is an interesting read. I would like to add my voice to this discussion. The best way for a political party to connect with voters is to ask for their vote. Last cycle, Democrats did not contest 44 out 100 House of Delegates seat in Virginia. Those 44 seats represent roughly 3,520,000 Virginians. As pointed out in the editorial discussing the Clinton campaign:
...(Democrats felt) they could sacrifice rural areas and win by simply running up the margins in cities and suburbs. That works in some states, but not others, depending on their rural/urban mix. “Rural counties and towns don’t cast a lot of votes standing alone, but they do add up,” Trende and Byler wrote. “This was enough to cost Clinton the states of Florida and North Carolina. Had she won those, she would be president.”
As a result of Democrats not running, the message to Virginians living in these largely rural districts is the Democratic Party is not interested in their concerns. This issue is not unique to Virginia either. In the last cycle, Democrats did not compete in 1,479 state legislative races nationwide. The districts we did not compete in represent more that 117,000,000 people. We often ask how people in "red America" can so consistently vote against their own interests.
They are not voting against their own interests at all, they are simply voting for those showing an interest in them.
With that in mind, let's turn our attention to the district at the tip of the knife.
DISTRICT 1 FAST FACTS
Residents = 80,010
Active Registered Voters = 43,663
Percent Registered = 55%
Total Vote in Last Race = 16,987
Participation Rate = 37%
Total Vote for Republican = 16,716
Total Vote for Democrat = 0
Total Vote Other = 271
Localities = Lee, Scott and Wise Counties with Norton City
District 1 has a total of 42 precincts with 17 in Scott County, 16 in Lee County, 8 in Wise County, and 1 in Norton City. The core of support seems to come out of Lee and Scott Counties while the support is less strong in Wise County. Let us take a look at data and see why.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Locality: