We’ve seen it in two special elections in deep red districts, and now Public Policy Polling finds it nationally: Democrats are a lot more excited about voting than Republicans.
Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 47-41. But what's more notable is the enthusiasm imbalance. 63% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' about voting in the 2018 election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who express that sentiment. When you look at the 2018 House picture just among the voters most excited about turning out next year, the lead for Democrats grows to 19 points at 57-38. Republican leaning voters are comparatively disengaged, with the GOP holding advantages only among voters who are 'somewhat excited' (48-40) and 'not that excited' (46-31).
Of course, there’s a long time between now and November 2018, and a lot could change. But one of the key factors is unlikely to suddenly start benefiting Republicans:
One reason for the comparative lack of Republican excitement may be the continued unpopularity of Donald Trump. Only 43% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 50% who disapprove. The core promise of Trump's campaign was to 'Make America Great Again,' but only 35% of voters actually think he's accomplished that goal to 55% who think he hasn't.
Unfortunately for the country, Trump is likely to keep doing things that raise Democratic enthusiasm for 2018. And the Democratic Party and progressive groups need to be making sure that Democratic voters aren’t focused only on Congress but on state and local races—especially heading toward 2020 redistricting, where which party holds state legislatures and governors’ mansions will make a massive difference for another decade to come.
Signs are favorable. Let’s make the most of them.