That's about what its going to take to win this Georgia congressional seat.
This district, centered around Roswell in the north Atlanta suburbs, has been a GOP seat for a long, long time . Cook PVI+12. In 1979, New Gingrich won the seat after Dixiecrat and NRA stalwart J. J. Flynt retired. Speaker Gingrich held the seat, left Congress in scandal and disgrace, and then current ultra-conservative Senator Johnny Isakson won it. After Isakson went to the Senate, right wing nutjob Tom Price won. His move to be Secretary of HHS is why this is an open seat this year. This district tends to be a stepping stone for Republicans to higher office so it is much sought after by GOP politicians.
So, Ossoff will make it to the runoff election easy. The problem, and this is a problem that keeps happening in Georgia, is that for the runoff Republicans then tend to unite behind their guy, and Democratic turnout drops off a cliff. GOP wins. Now, we may get lucky and get a completely unacceptable GOP opponent, hopefully tarred with scandal of some sort. But if its your usual evil bastard in a business suit then this seat will most likely stick to the norm. Of course, I will take luck over a good plan any day. Still, gotta have a plan.
There's a way to avoid the runoff problem however: win an outright majority on election day. I think Ossoff is trying to do exactly that. He wants to make the race a referendum on Trump with the hope this district will buck back. Trump carried this seat by just two points after Romney won it by 23. Its possible, and certainly worth a serious shot.
This is exactly the kind of well educated, diverse, affluent suburban district Democrats should be winning across the sunbelt. Jon Ossoff is running a good Georgia campaign with a very direct and simple message of opposition to Trump. He's also got the kind of profile we need more of in our candidates: young, smart small business owner with a good head for politics and government. The only issue is finding and getting the around 200k votes to win the seat outright. He should have about 100k or so committed Dems that he will get with a good campaign. But he needs that other 100k to be runoff proof. It is certainly doable. Democrats need to make it their business to do it. Because if Ossoff can win this seat, I think it will send a message to other young entrepreneurs who maybe might be considering public service (like these thousands of young Obama staffers out there in the private sector) that the time to jump in is now.
Aside: We could also use some primary challengers in the safe Dem seats here people. The Congressional Democrats are so tired, comfortable and stuck on radio boring you barely notice them. Especially the moribund and feckless Congressional Black Caucus. They never go anywhere, they never do anything, and they're too passed it to inject themselves into the broader popular culture that Democrats need to activate turnout. So please, let's have some action.