If Republicans repeal the ACA, it could put their House majority in danger.
This diary was inspired by Charles “Brainwrap” Gaba’s diary on the number of people who would lose coverage under ACA repeal, broken down by Congressional District. Brainwrap needs no introduction hereabouts on his collection of data related to the Affordable Care Act.
Looking at the data he had posted, which was partial at the time, I thought it would make for a good map. Correspondence with him revealed that it was mapped to some extent by the Kaiser Family Foundation. I noticed in the charts, however that some of the numbers in the total of people losing coverage column was larger than the raw victory margins of Republicans who had won those races. I wondered how much of a difference that might make next November.
I started with the Google Docs spreadsheet that Brainwrap supplied on his post. I stripped out some of the formatting so I could bring it in as a table join in ESRI ArcGIS and add it to a Congressional District shapefile I downloaded from ESRI’s website.
I limited my districts to ones that are being held by Republicans because that’s what we want to change, right?
I added a field that subtracted the Expected To Lose Coverage totals from the raw GOP victory totals. For lack of a better term, I call it the “Vulnerability Index” (VI). Negative numbers are the most vulnerable; positive numbers not so much. Numbers are in thousands.
vulnerable |
State |
CD_ |
Winner |
GOP_Margin |
GOP_Raw_Margin |
2016_Prez |
High_Subsidy |
Medicaid |
Basic_Health |
Total_Proj |
Vulnerable Republicans, Ranked
-106.828 |
New York |
11 |
Daniel Donovan |
24.8% |
57.677 |
Trump |
4.270 |
125 |
36 |
164.505 |
-103.510 |
California |
10 |
Jeff Denham |
3.4% |
8.201 |
Clinton |
21.138 |
91 |
0 |
111.711 |
-97.411 |
California |
21 |
David Valadao |
13.5% |
17.844 |
Clinton |
10.990 |
104 |
0 |
115.255 |
-75.385 |
New York |
19 |
John Faso |
8.6% |
26.000 |
Trump |
3.173 |
76 |
22 |
101.385 |
-68.501 |
New Mexico |
2 |
Steve Pearce |
25.5% |
58.282 |
Trump |
9.601 |
117 |
0 |
126.783 |
-62.106 |
California |
49 |
Darrell Issa |
0.5% |
1.621 |
Clinton |
23.706 |
40 |
0 |
63.727 |
-61.079 |
California |
25 |
Steve Knight |
6.3% |
16.349 |
Clinton |
16.344 |
61 |
0 |
77.428 |
-53.392 |
Florida |
27 |
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
9.8% |
28.157 |
Clinton |
81.549 |
0 |
0 |
81.549 |
-52.823 |
California |
8 |
Paul Cook |
24.5% |
53.937 |
Trump |
15.133 |
92 |
0 |
106.760 |
-52.361 |
New York |
22 |
Claudia Tenney |
5.4% |
15.178 |
Trump |
2.519 |
51 |
14 |
67.539 |
-46.161 |
California |
39 |
Ed Royce |
14.5% |
38.098 |
Clinton |
30.547 |
54 |
0 |
84.259 |
-45.277 |
Florida |
26 |
Carlos Curbelo |
11.8% |
33.054 |
Clinton |
78.331 |
0 |
0 |
78.331 |
-44.947 |
California |
1 |
Doug La Malfa |
18.1% |
56.860 |
Trump |
22.819 |
79 |
0 |
101.807 |
-40.993 |
Nevada |
2 |
Mark Amodei |
21.4% |
66.954 |
Trump |
17.721 |
90 |
0 |
107.947 |
-38.565 |
Colorado |
3 |
Scott Tipton |
14.3% |
53.306 |
Trump |
14.932 |
77 |
0 |
91.871 |
-37.526 |
Colorado |
6 |
Mike Coffman |
8.3% |
31.254 |
Clinton |
11.179 |
58 |
0 |
68.780 |
-37.437 |
New York |
23 |
Tom Reed |
15.2% |
42.466 |
Trump |
2.770 |
60 |
17 |
79.903 |
-34.859 |
Minnesota |
2 |
Jason Lewis |
1.8% |
6.655 |
Trump |
7.266 |
24 |
11 |
41.514 |
-34.369 |
California |
42 |
Ken Calvert |
17.6% |
44.858 |
Trump |
20.249 |
59 |
0 |
79.227 |
-26.470 |
Michigan |
11 |
Dave Trott |
12.8% |
48.411 |
Trump |
16.783 |
58 |
0 |
74.881 |
-25.116 |
California |
48 |
Dana Rohrabacher |
16.6% |
50.986 |
Clinton |
26.603 |
49 |
0 |
76.102 |
-23.400 |
West Virginia |
2 |
Alex Mooney |
16.4% |
39.600 |
Trump |
8.348 |
55 |
0 |
63.000 |
-22.824 |
New York |
2 |
Peter King |
24.9% |
69.861 |
Trump |
4.385 |
69 |
20 |
92.685 |
-22.463 |
Washington |
5 |
Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
19.3% |
62.384 |
Trump |
11.567 |
73 |
0 |
84.847 |
-21.212 |
Oklahoma |
1 |
Jim Bridenstine |
100.0% |
0.000 |
Trump |
21.212 |
0 |
0 |
21.212 |
-21.175 |
Texas |
23 |
Will Hurd |
1.3% |
3.051 |
Clinton |
24.226 |
0 |
0 |
24.226 |
-18.820 |
Arkansas |
2 |
French Hill |
21.5% |
65.125 |
Trump |
12.571 |
71 |
0 |
83.945 |
-16.991 |
Pennsylvania |
8 |
Brian Fitzpatrick |
8.9% |
33.914 |
Trump |
21.116 |
30 |
0 |
50.905 |
-16.878 |
Montana |
0 |
Ryan Zinke |
15.6% |
79.439 |
Trump |
35.084 |
61 |
0 |
96.317 |
-16.635 |
Washington |
8 |
Dave Reichert |
20.4% |
65.425 |
Clinton |
13.641 |
68 |
0 |
82.060 |
-16.305 |
New York |
24 |
John Katko |
21.1% |
63.721 |
Clinton |
2.596 |
60 |
17 |
80.026 |
-16.187 |
Washington |
3 |
Jaime Herrera Beutler |
23.5% |
73.637 |
Trump |
13.082 |
77 |
0 |
89.824 |
-15.845 |
Indiana |
9 |
Trey Hollingsworth |
13.7% |
44.164 |
Trump |
12.781 |
47 |
0 |
60.009 |
-15.491 |
Iowa |
1 |
Rod Blum |
7.7% |
29.500 |
Trump |
8.562 |
36 |
0 |
44.991 |
-13.443 |
Nebraska |
2 |
Don Bacon |
1.2% |
3.464 |
Trump |
16.907 |
0 |
0 |
16.907 |
-12.609 |
Michigan |
1 |
Jack Bergman |
14.8% |
53.443 |
Trump |
21.342 |
45 |
0 |
66.052 |
-11.901 |
New York |
27 |
Chris Collins |
34.4% |
113.053 |
Trump |
2.673 |
95 |
27 |
124.954 |
-11.419 |
California |
45 |
Mimi Walters |
17.1% |
53.387 |
Clinton |
25.838 |
39 |
0 |
64.806 |
-11.318 |
California |
50 |
Duncan D. Hunter |
26.9% |
76.291 |
Trump |
21.259 |
66 |
0 |
87.609 |
-11.239 |
Florida |
18 |
Brian Mast |
10.5% |
39.570 |
Trump |
50.809 |
0 |
0 |
50.809 |
-8.765 |
New York |
1 |
Lee Zeldin |
17.9% |
53.186 |
Trump |
4.443 |
45 |
13 |
61.951 |
-7.938 |
Florida |
25 |
Mario Diaz-Balart |
24.7% |
62.602 |
Trump |
70.540 |
0 |
0 |
70.540 |
-6.059 |
Virginia |
10 |
Barbara Comstock |
5.8% |
23.079 |
Clinton |
29.138 |
0 |
0 |
29.138 |
-5.150 |
California |
22 |
Devin Nunes |
35.1% |
82.544 |
Trump |
16.078 |
72 |
0 |
87.694 |
-4.804 |
Michigan |
7 |
Tim Walberg |
15.0% |
50.311 |
Trump |
13.537 |
42 |
0 |
55.115 |
-4.202 |
Illinois |
12 |
Mike Bost |
14.6% |
45.730 |
Trump |
10.613 |
39 |
0 |
49.932 |
-3.994 |
Pennsylvania |
16 |
Lloyd Smucker |
10.9% |
34.083 |
Trump |
14.609 |
23 |
0 |
38.077 |
-2.289 |
Kentucky |
6 |
Andy Barr |
22.2% |
73.371 |
Trump |
7.494 |
68 |
0 |
75.660 |
-2.157 |
New Jersey |
2 |
Frank LoBiondo |
22.0% |
65.500 |
Trump |
15.435 |
52 |
0 |
67.657 |
-1.139 |
Utah |
4 |
Mia Love |
12.5% |
34.184 |
Trump |
35.323 |
0 |
0 |
35.323 |
-0.401 |
New Jersey |
7 |
Leonard Lance |
11.0% |
37.662 |
Clinton |
15.819 |
22 |
0 |
38.063 |
1.002 |
Pennsylvania |
7 |
Patrick Meehan |
18.9% |
71.854 |
Clinton |
17.926 |
53 |
0 |
70.852 |
1.626 |
Indiana |
2 |
Jackie Walorski |
22.3% |
61.954 |
Trump |
12.849 |
47 |
0 |
60.328 |
1.801 |
Iowa |
3 |
David Young |
13.7% |
53.596 |
Trump |
9.857 |
42 |
0 |
51.795 |
2.922 |
Arizona |
2 |
Martha McSally |
13.9% |
43.933 |
Clinton |
12.504 |
29 |
0 |
41.011 |
4.239 |
Illinois |
6 |
Peter Roskam |
18.4% |
64.964 |
Clinton |
16.541 |
44 |
0 |
60.725 |
4.664 |
Maine |
2 |
Bruce Poliquin |
9.6% |
33.797 |
Trump |
29.133 |
0 |
0 |
29.133 |
5.497 |
Texas |
7 |
John Culberson |
12.3% |
31.551 |
Clinton |
26.054 |
0 |
0 |
26.054 |
6.145 |
Alaska |
0 |
Don Young |
14.3% |
44.069 |
Trump |
13.328 |
24 |
0 |
37.924 |
6.626 |
Michigan |
8 |
Mike Bishop |
16.9% |
61.838 |
Trump |
16.576 |
39 |
0 |
55.212 |
6.845 |
Alabama |
2 |
Martha Roby |
8.2% |
22.797 |
Trump |
15.952 |
0 |
0 |
15.952 |
14.073 |
Minnesota |
3 |
Erik Paulsen |
13.7% |
53.834 |
Clinton |
7.224 |
22 |
11 |
39.761 |
15.439 |
Pennsylvania |
6 |
Ryan Costello |
14.7% |
52.782 |
Clinton |
16.778 |
21 |
0 |
37.343 |
15.714 |
Kansas |
3 |
Kevin Yoder |
10.7% |
36.722 |
Clinton |
21.008 |
0 |
0 |
21.008 |
137.728 |
Texas |
32 |
Pete Sessions |
71.1% |
162.868 |
Clinton |
25.140 |
0 |
0 |
25.140 |
By my count, there are 51 districts where the Expected To Lose Coverage number is more than the raw GOP victory. These districts have a negative VI and can be considered vulnerable if enough of the voters who lose coverage realized it was their Congressperson who voted for repeal.
There are another 7 districts with positive VIs that are weak, meaning the raw votes are less than 10% more than the coverage losers. 4 more districts have higher VIs but Hillary Clinton got more votes than Donald Trump.
Daniel Donovan of New York is the most vulnerable, with a VI of -106,828 people. Pete Sessions of Texas is the least vulnerable here, with a hefty cushion of 137,728 people, but his district did go for Clinton.
Republicans currently control 45 more seats than Democrats. Brainwrap’s numbers hint that if people lose their ACA coverage, there might be enough of a backlash to flip seats in 51 districts and weaken Republican representatives’ margins in 11 more. Some well-known names are on this list, like Darrell Issa (VI -62.106), Dana Rohrabacher (-25.116), Peter King (-22.824) and Devin Nunes (-5.150)
Here’s an interactive map showing which House seats with VI included. Note: Democratic-held seats have high VIs because their GOP margin is negative. They are not in danger, unless they vote with Republicans. Then they’re toast. Click on a district to see the info. You may have to scroll to the bottom of the popup to see the VI.
For our efforts between now and next November, we need to communicate to the public how destructive Republican policies will be to people’s lives. Losing affordable health insurance is a traumatic event. Should that happen, the data I listed above can help to show whom to target and what to target them with. Congressional Democrats need to make Congressional Republicans own whatever effects occur from repealing the Affordable Care Act. As for the rest of us, this information can show what we need to talk to people when we work for next year’s campaigns.