Late in the day on Friday and with almost no warning, the Republicans who dominate Georgia’s state House did something altogether remarkable: They rammed through a bill to re-gerrymander their own district lines in order to protect several vulnerable GOP incumbents. The move is amazing for two reasons. For one, Republicans have already gerrymandered the House to within an inch of its life: Even though Donald Trump won just 50 percent of the vote in Georgia last year, the GOP has a 118-to-62 advantage in the chamber. That means they control 66 percent of all seats, though evidently that’s not enough for greedy Republicans.
The other takeaway is just as startling. Seven of the nine districts Republicans are trying to fiddle with are in the northern Atlanta suburbs, and two of them are located entirely within the 6th Congressional District, as shown in the map at the top of this post. That’s where the upcoming special election to replace Trump’s new health secretary, Tom Price, is about to take place. While this effort doesn’t directly affect the state’s congressional lines, if Republicans are futzing with legislative district borders in this part of the state, it’s a sign they’re worried about the race for the U.S. House too.
And they have reason to be. These Atlanta suburbs districts are home to both a growing mix of black, Latino, and Asian-American voters who are core Democratic-leaning demographics as well as a highly educated white population. These wealthy, educated white voters have long leaned staunchly Republican, but they swung sharply toward Hillary Clinton in 2016, and consequently so did these suburbs.
If these districts start voting for Congress and state legislature the same way they did for president in 2016, that could doom many downballot Republicans as we head into 2018. That’s particularly important for the 6th Congressional District, which will hold a special election this year on April 18, with a likely runoff on June 20. This highly educated seat only supported Trump by 48-47 despite favoring Mitt Romney by a 61-37 landslide in 2012. If Democrats hope to take back the House in 2018, districts like this one will make top targets.
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Democrats have largely consolidated around investigative filmmaker Jon Ossoff, while the Republican field is still in flux. Daily Kos itself endorsed Ossoff and has already raised $1 million in support of his candidacy, a number that obliterates our previous fundraising record—set by none other than Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Republicans just recently launched a $1.1 million ad buy against Ossoff, which shows they certainly aren’t behaving like they think this race is a layup.
Nonetheless, Georgia’s 6th is still a red district that Republicans have held ever since former House Speaker Newt Gingrich first won it in 1992. However, Trump’s deep unpopularity among both college-educated whites and voters of color plus a surge of Democratic enthusiasm gives Team Blue a fighting chance. Prevailing or even simply coming close in such a historically conservative district could strike fear into the hearts of congressional Republicans—and as their desperate re-redistricting efforts show, they’re already quite fearful.