Campaign Action
It seems like Republicans are determined to make every single lie they said about the Affordable Care Act become a truth for Trumpcare—that it was shoved down Americans’ throats before anybody had a chance to see it, that it would make health insurance unaffordable, that it would kill old people, and now, that it was a job-killer.
The Commonwealth Fund took a look at Trumpcare (at least, the House version, since Mitch McConnell continues to refuse to make any Senate language public) and found some pretty devastating economic news.
The AHCA would raise employment and economic activity at first, but lower them in the long run. It initially raises the federal deficit when taxes are repealed, leading to 864,000 more jobs in 2018. In later years, reductions in support for health insurance cause negative economic effects. By 2026, 924,000 jobs would be lost, gross state products would be $93 billion lower, and business output would be $148 billion less. About three-quarters of jobs lost (725,000) would be in the health care sector. States which expanded Medicaid would experience faster and deeper economic losses. […]
Our estimates are based on changes in federal funding gained or lost to states, consumers, and businesses. The AHCA significantly reduces federal funding for Medicaid. It lowers federal match funding for the 31 states and District of Columbia that expanded Medicaid, encouraging them to discontinue their expansions. It gives states an option to either adopt per capita allotments for Medicaid or fixed block grants; either option lowers federal Medicaid expenditures. Eliminating the tax penalty for individuals without health insurance reduces incentives to purchase insurance, raising the number of uninsured people. Restructuring premium tax credits and widening age-related differences in premiums are expected to shrink nongroup insurance coverage and reduce federal spending for health insurance subsidies. The AHCA is designed so that tax cuts take effect sooner than reductions in health insurance subsidies. Thus, state employment and economies could grow at first but shrink in later years as the coverage reductions deepen.
Any short-term gains made would dramatically reverse in the medium and long term, which Republicans apparently aren't worried about. Maybe they think by then they'll have the nation so gerrymandered and the opposition vote so suppressed that they'll be in power forever, anyway. No matter how many people they leave uninsured and unemployed. They really don't seem to be any more concerned about their political futures than the nation's future health.