In the weakest overall jobs report of 2017, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ said Friday that the economy added 147,000 private-sector jobs in May, but the public sector shed 9,000, for a net gain of 138,000 new jobs.
A consensus of experts surveyed by Bloomberg in advance of the report had forecast that gains would be around 180,000. This was the 80th consecutive month of overall job growth. The headline unemployment rate—which the BLS labels U3—fell slightly to 4.3 percent. The last time the unemployment rate was at this level was 16 years ago, in May 2001.
Between February 2008 and December 2009, the economy had a net loss of 8.8 million jobs. Since then, it has gained 11.9 million.
The BLS job count covers both full-time and part-time positions. Anyone who has worked even a single hour a week during the survey period is counted as employed. The survey period ends around the 12th of each month, so the May report released today is actually a report for about half of April and half of May, not May alone.
The BLS also looks at the job situation using other groupings of the populace, one of which is U6, the most inclusive measure of “labor underutilitization.” This encompasses both unemployment and underemployment. Many economists believe it provides a better look at job health than U3, but not everyone agrees. A key U6 component consists of part-time workers who want—but cannot find——full-time positions. U6 fell 0.2 points in May to 8.4 percent.
The bureau revised its previous reports of job gains for April from 211,000 to 174,000, and March numbers were revised from 79,000 to 50,000.
The civilian workforce fell in May by 429,000 after having risen by 12,000 in April. The labor force participation rate slipped to 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio fell 0.2 points to 60 percent.
Average hourly earnings rose 63 cents over last May, a 2.5 percent year-over-year gain. The current annual inflation rate is also 2.5 percent. Which means that even though the median household has recently seen its real income restored to pre-Great Recession levels, workers are still just treading water economically. Most financial gains during the recovery have gone to people occupying the upper tiers of the U.S. economy. Pr*sident Donald Trump and other Republicans are eager to make that inequality worse.
Unemployment rates differ by race and sex. For U3: Adult men: 3.8 percent; Adult women: 4.0 percent; Whites: 3.7 percent; Blacks: 7.5 percent; Asians: 3.6 percent; Hispanics: 5.2 percent; American Indians: (not counted monthly); Teenagers: 14.3 percent; (for teenagers of color, the unemployment rate is usually much higher.)
The BLS calculates the net gain (or loss) in jobs each month via the Current Employment Survey of 147,000 business establishments and government agencies. The unemployment rate, however, is based on a different survey—the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households. You can read details here of how the BLS makes its calculations and why it seasonally adjusts the numbers.
For its monthly estimates, the bureau has established a "confidence level" of plus or minus 115,000 jobs. That means the "real" number of new jobs created in May was not 138,000 but rather ranged between a gain of 23,000 and gain of 253,000.
One special calculation the bureau makes as part of each month’s jobs report measures the employment-population ratio for people age 25 to 54. Individuals in this age group are the most likely of any workers to be employed, and their situation is viewed as key indicator of America’s overall economic health, hence the attention the bureau gives it. Eighteen years ago, this age group reached its highest employment-population ratio—84.6 percent. It hit its lowest point—74.8 percent—in November 2010. Since then, it’s been slowly rising. But in May it fell 0.2 points to 78.4 percent.
Here are some other details from the report:
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 3 cents an hour to $22.00 in May.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls remained unchanged in May at 34.4 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 4 cents an hour in May to $26.22.
• The manufacturing workweek in May was unchanged at 40.7 hours.
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls in May fell 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours.
May Job Gains and Losses for selected categories:
- Professional services: 38,000
- Temporary help services: 12,900
- Transportation & warehousing: 3,600
- Financial activities: 11,000
- Leisure & hospitality: 31,000
- Information: -2,000
- Education and health services: 47,000
- Health care & social assistance: 32,300
- Retail trade: -6,100
- Construction: 11,000
- Manufacturing: -1,000
- Mining and Logging: 9,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in the previous 10 years compared with this May’s gain of 138000.
May 2007: 143,000
May 2008: -186,000
May 2009: -349,000
May 2010: 524,000 (Census hiring)
May 2011: 77,000
May 2012: 115,000
May 2013: 226,000
May 2014: 246,000
May 2015: 344,000
May 2016: 43,000