New Jersey held its gubernatorial primaries on Tuesday, and there were no surprises on either side. Democratic frontrunner Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive who served as ambassador to Germany during the Obama administration, took first place with 48 percent of the vote, while ex-Treasury official Jim Johnson and Assemblyman John Wisniewski each took 22 percent; state Sen. Ray Lesniak, a longtime legislator who ran a disorganized campaign, took just 5 percent. On the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno defeated state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli 47-31. Early polls give Murphy a huge lead over Guadagno in this fall’s general election to succeed unpopular departing GOP Gov. Chris Christie.
A year ago, the Democratic primary looked like it would be a competitive three-way race between Murphy, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and state Senate President Steve Sweeney. However, Murphy won over several early endorsements from influential Democratic Party leaders in voter-rich North Jersey, and in September, Fulop announced that he wouldn’t run. Sweeney, an ally of South Jersey political bosses, had been hoping that Murphy and Fulop would split the northern vote, but one week after Fulop decided not to get in, Sweeney also announced that he would seek re-election.
Murphy still had primary opposition, but he had several huge advantages. Murphy had the support of every single one of New Jersey’s 21 county Democratic organizations, which guaranteed him a favorable place on the primary ballot. As NorthJersey.com’s Charles Stile explains, “Candidates who win the county organization's support are given the ‘line,' or preferred placement on the ballot, and often bracketed in the same column with candidates for local office. In a primary, the county line is typically the default choice of partisan voters who haven't paid much attention to the race.” And indeed, the only county Murphy appears to have lost is Salem, where Wisniewski holds a 3-vote lead as of Wednesday.
Murphy, who did some generous self-funding, also decisively outspent all his rivals on TV. In fact, Murphy ran his first TV ad in September of 2015. While Johnson and Wisniewski tried to use Murphy’s Goldman Sachs past against him, they didn’t have the resources or the support to get their message out, and the two divided whatever anti-Murphy vote existed. Murphy himself also ran commercials pledging to stand up to special interests on behalf of New Jerseyans.
There haven’t been many polls of the general election, but they all show Murphy with huge leads against Guadagno. Christie, who is termed-out, consistently sports horrific approval ratings, and his problems are rubbing off on his lieutenant governor. While Guadagno and Christie have a strained relationship (though Christie revealed on Tuesday that he voted for her in the primary), most voters don’t seem to know or care about that. It also doesn’t help Guadagno that Donald Trump, who lost New Jersey 55-41, is also not at all liked here.
Murphy evidently feels confinement enough about his chances that he’s decided not to self-fund his general election campaign. Instead, Murphy announced shortly before the primary that he would instead accept public financing, which prevents him from spending more than $13.8 million for the general. Guadagno and her allies have already signaled that they intent to portray Murphy as the second coming of ex-Gov. Jon Corzine, another former Goldman Sachs executive who lost his 2009 re-election campaign to Christie. However, unless there’s a massive sea change in New Jersey politics over the next five months, it’s tough to see Team Red holding onto Drumthwacket.