California, America’s largest state, is also shaping up to be the biggest battleground in next year’s battle for the House of Representatives, with the number of competitive of possibly competitive races in the double digits. Ancestrally Republican Orange County swung hard towards Clinton, typical of a rich, well-educated county, and brought many of its House districts with it.
(Note: for the sake of time and efficiency, I will no longer be analyzing each race, but only the ones that I believe will be competitive or has the potential to be competitive, bar any cash in the freezer. Seats not mentioned should be assumed to be safe for the party that holds them).
AR-02: Rep. French Hill (R) — Little Rock Metro — R+7
Safe Republican. Though as of right now, Rep. French Hill looks safe in this red-leaning district, a worsening national environment for the GOP could make this race competitive. After winning a tightly contested race in 2014, Hill cruised to victory last year over underfunded Democrat Diane Curry. However, this well-educated district didn’t react as well to Trump as the rest of Arkansas, and Trump’s 52-42 margin over Clinton was a small drop over Romney’s 55-43 win. Two Democrats, State Rep. Clarke Tucker (Little Rock) and former University of Central Arkansas President Win Tucker are considering a run. Businesswoman Natashia Burch Hulsey and teacher Paul Spencer are running in Team Blue’s primary, but neither seems to be strong enough to pose a serious threat to Hill. Another complicating factor in the race is that Hill, a former banker, is being considered for a post at the Treasury Department. Republicans have no shortage of candidates in this district, but an open seat contest would probably be much more competitive, as 2014 has shown. Until then, however, Hill looks safe.
CA-07: Rep. Ami Bera (D) — Eastern Sacramento Metro: Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova — D+3
Lean Democratic. This northern California district has been the site of many competitive races, and it looks like 2018 will prove no different. Last year, Rep. Ami Bera squeaked by with a 51-49 margin to defeat Republican Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, who didn’t concede until weeks after election night when AP called the race. It seems like Republicans have already picked a candidate to back, Northern California World Trade Center CEO Andrew Grant, who also served in the Marine Corps and worked in the Bush Administration. Grant has a biography that fits well with this well-off, business-friendly district, and his connections should yield good fundraising and powerful endorsements. College student Omba Kipuke is also running for Team Red, but he proves no threat to either Grant or Bera. In the first quarter of 2017, Bera raised a healthy $320,000 and had a similar Cash on Hand, so he seems to already be in campaign mode. Clinton, like in many suburban districts, significantly outran Obama, winning 51-40, compared to Obama’s 51-47 win. Trump’s weakness in the district combined with the current unpopularity of Republicans nationwide starts Bera out as the favorite, but that could change if the national environment shifts or if Grant proves to be a beast fundraiser.
CA-10: Rep. Jeff Denham (R) — Northern Central Valley: Modesto, Manteca — EVEN
Tilt Republican. Rep. Jeff Denham, a Republican who has staked out moderate positions on immigration and vigorously defended the agriculture business that defines his district, has proven to be a tough and able campaigner, beating back three competitive challenges in a row. National Democrats heavily targeted this district in 2016, spending almost $5,000,000, only to have their nominee, Michael Eggman, come up short with a 52-48 loss. Clinton actually did worse than Obama, winning 48-45 after Obama won 51-47, probably because of lack of enthusiasm in blue-collar Modesto, which makes up a substantial portion of the district. Many Democrats have declared, but the most promising seem to be businessman T.J. Cox, venture capitalist Josh Harder, and ex-Riverbank City Councilor Dotty Nygard. Cox and Harder have the potential to self-fund, while Nygard, a nurse, could receive union backing. 2012 nominee and ex-Astronaut José Hernandez and ex-Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno. However, Denham raised $360,000 in Q1 and has a whopping $630,000 Cash on Hand, which is a very steep hill for Team Blue to counter. Right now, Denham seems to have a slight advantage, but his vote for the AHCA, which is unpopular in this blue-collar district, will definitely hurt him in the long run. Things will become much clearer after the Q2 FEC filings are released, and a very strong haul from a Democrat could shift this race into the tossup column. Until then, however, Denham is the slight favorite.
CA-21: Rep. David Valadao (R) — Central Valley: Kerman, Kern County — D+5
Likely Republican. After voting 55-39 for Clinton, this district should immediately be on the top of any takeover lists, but Rep. David Valadao’s popularity and low midterm turnout puts this district lower on Team Blue’s target list. Last year, Democrats tried desperately to boost Emilio Huerta, whose lackluster spending caused all sorts of headaches at the DCCC. In the end, Huerta fell flat, losing 57-43 even as Clinton won a landslide at the top of the ticket. This time around, Democrats have been luckier with potential recruitments: Bakersfield City Councilor Andrae Gonzales, ex-Fresno County Supervisor Henry R. Perea, Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez, and Assemblyman Rudy Salas. While all of these candidates would be a huge get for Democrats, Salas would probably be the strongest candidate because his State House District covers more than half the district, and his moderate voting record, which has occasionally caused the ire of California Democrats, would be popular in the district. Valadao, on the whole, has been one of the most liberal Republicans in the House (which isn’t saying much), but his vote for the deeply unpopular AHCA will provide tons of ad fodder in this solidly working-class district. Emilio Huerta is running for a rematch, but if one of the aforementioned A-listers runs, Huerta will most likely be very far from making the run-off. However, until someone like Salas runs, Valadao remains the heavy favorite.
CA-24: Rep. Salud Carbajal (D) — South Coast: Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo — D+7
Likely Democratic. Though Hillary Clinton won a landslide 56-36 victory in this rich, well-educated district, Salud Carbajal won a close 53-47 to keep Lois Capps’ seat in Democratic hands. Carbajal ran a rather mediocre campaign and was caught tape calling Lompoc an “armpit”, while Republican Justin Fareed ran an extremely strong campaign, while spending was equal on both sides. This time around, it seems that Fareed isn’t running, as many thought he would, losing the GOP’s best candidate. Currently, there are no strong potential challengers, though ex-Fresno City Councilor Michael Woodbury is running. Carbajal should be safe, and his massive $867,000 CoH should ward off any strong Republicans, but his past gaffes keep his district on the GOP’s target list (though very far to the bottom).
CA-25: Rep. Steve Knight (R) — LA Exurbs: Palmdale, Santa Clarita — EVEN
Tilt Republican. Rep. Steve Knight, like many California Republicans, has seen his Republican-leaning district pulled from under him, and his vote for the AHCA compounds the problem. After Romney won a 50-48 victory in 2012, Clinton won 50-43 in this suburban district. Knight, however, hasn't shown himself to be a moderate, and his conservative votes could be a major liability in the district. Three viable Democrats, philanthropist Katie Hill, scientist Jess Phoenix, and 2016 nominee Bryan Caforio are running. A recent poll shows Hill trailing Knight 42-49 and Caforio trailing Knight 43-48 in hypothetical matchups, but Hill leads Knight 48-46 after some positive messaging, showing that a Democratic ad blitz could turn this race into a tossup. However, another poll shows Knight at 46 with Caforio trailing at 30 in the open primary, while Hill and Phoenix sit in single digits. Caforio ran an okay campaign last year, but he was attacked as not having California roots which could be used against him after his 53-47. Knight currently has an average $430,000 CoH, while Hill has $175,000 on hand. Currently, Knight holds a small lead as the Democrats battle for a seat in the runoff, but when their standings become more clear, this race could easily move to the tossup column.
CA-39: Rep. Ed Royce (R) — Northern Orange: Yorba Linda, Buena Park, La Habra — EVEN
Lean Republican. One of the Orange County Republicans whose seats were torn out from under them, Rep. Ed Royce, the powerful chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is facing his toughest race in years. This rich, suburban district swung from a 51-47 Romney win to a 51-43 Clinton win, and Democrats are signaling they are planning on heavily contesting this seat. Several Democrats are running for this seat: education consultant Phil Janowicz, doctor Mai-Khanh Tran, and philanthropist Gil Cisneros. Tran has an inspiring story similar to Rep. Stephanie Murphy’s: she escaped Saigon just before the fall of South Vietnam and came to America. Tran raised $270,000 dollars in just the month of June, but Royce raised almost half a million dollars and had a massive CoH of $2,860,000. Royce will be a tough for Democrats incumbent to beat given his avid fundraising and powerful connections after serving 24 years in Congress, but Trump’s unpopularity in this well-educated and diverse district could prove too overwhelming for Royce to overcome. However, Royce starts with a clear advantage.
CA-45: Rep. Mimi Walters (R) — Inland Orange: Irvine, Mission Viejo — R+3
Lean Republican. Rep. Mimi Walters, first elected in a 2014 landslide, will be facing her first ever competitive race. A clown car of Democrats are running in this suburban district, the most notable being UC Irvine Law Professor Katie Porter, UC Irvine Law Professor(!) Dave Min, and congressional aide Kia Hamadanchy. Porter has received endorsements from Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and EMILY’s List, which should help differentiate her from the pack and raise some good money. Whoever does end up facing Walters is going to need some fundraising chops, as she has a massive $1,085,000 CoH, with Porter trailing at $260,000, Min at $250,000, and Hamadanchy at $130,000. However, Walters 'vote for the AHCA, which is very unpopular in this district that voted 49-45 for Clinton, will provide future headaches. However, this district's ancestral Republican lean and Walters' campaign skills keep this race in the Republican column, but if Trump and the GOP continue to fumble their majorities in Washington, Walters could find herself in a fight for her political life.
CA-48: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) — Coastal Orange: Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach — R+4
Lean Republican. As many Republicans attempt to distance themselves from Trump on the controversial Russia issue, longtime Rep. Dana Rohrabacher has long been in the Russian fold, and possibly even been an unwitting Russian agent. Like the rest of Orange County, this district swung hard against Trump, lurching from a comfortable 55-43 victory for Romney to a 48-46 Clinton win. Like many California districts, the 48th is going to feature a clown car primary. Businessman Hans Kierstead, businessman Harley Rouda, architect Laura Oatman, and Nestlé executive Michael Kotick are the prominent candidates for Team Blue, but a gaggle of Some Dudes is also running. The complicating factor, however, is that ex-OC GOP Chair/ex-Assemblyman Scott Baugh and businessman Stelian Onufrei are running for Team Red. California’s has a system similar to a“jungle primary”, where candidates from all parties run in the same primary and the top two vote-getters advance to the general, regardless of party. There have been many instances of same party generals in California, most notably the 2016 Senate race between Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez, so a same party general is extremely plausible, and in this race featuring a few credible Republicans and a clown car of Democrats, two Republicans advancing to the general is a distinct possibility. DCCC Chair Ben Ray Lujan is discretely supporting Kierstead via the New Mexico Democrat’s Leadership PAC, and more national Democrats may try to cull Team Blue’s herd of candidates. Baugh leads the field with $546,000 CoH (nearly all of it self-funded) with Rohrabacher trailing with $400,000 and Kierstead and Rouda hovering below $200,000. This is going to be one of 2018’s most bizarre races, and some good polling is going to be needed to get a good understanding. Until then, Rohrabacher remains the favorite due to the district’s Republican lean and the general “what the Hell is going on” atmosphere of the race.
CA-49: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) — South Coast: San Clemente, Oceanside, Vista — R+1
Tossup. Rep. Darrell Issa, the richest member of Congress, escaped defeat by the skin of his teeth last year, and he’s unlikely to get a break in 2018. Last year, little attention was paid to this affluent seat until Democrat Doug Applegate lost narrowly to Issa in the June all-party primary, which triggered a cascade of outside money that nearly swept Issa away, but he held on with a 1,621 vote margin. This time, Democrats aren’t waiting to contest this seat, as Applegate, attorney Mike Levin, and investor Paul Kerr have already declared for Team Blue. Already, infighting has begun among Democrats, with Applegate (an ex-Marine Colonel) projecting that the Democratic nominee in the district should be a veteran because of the massive military vote provided by Camp Pendleton. A March poll of a possible primary found Issa leading with 43, Applegate at 39, Levin with 9, and Kerr barely on the table with 3. However, Levin leads Applegate in the money race with $415,000 CoH compared to Applegate’s $260,000, though both trail Issa’s $670,000 war chest. Whoever ends up battling Issa will certainly be in for a tough fight, as Issa could potentially pour millions of dollars into the race. However, Clinton’s 51-43 win and Issa’s long history of angering Democrats make him one of the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents, and he should expect the race of his life.
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