Donald Trump is a consummately skilled con-man. Nothing illustrates his deceptive style better than this campaign slogan. Let’s face it—it’s hard to argue against it quickly and easily.
But there is the deeper problem with it: it is misdirection: a trick designed to throw the listener off the scent of the real issues. The real issue is that the only thing that provides a consistent explanation for what this administration is doing, or trying to do is a desire to make America weak. If that is your hidden agenda, what better than a slogan that says the reverse?
This strategy of using slogans that are the exact opposite of an administration’s intent was described over 75 years ago in essays as well as novels by George Orwell.
Who could desire a weaker America?
Well, Russia, to start.
A Strong America is a Bar to Russian Expansionism
Since the end of World War II, America has been recognized as the leader of the “free world”—a term we coined to distinguish ourselves from the world of dictatorship and lack of personal and business freedom we saw in Russia and most of its geopolitical allies, such as Eastern Europe. The Russians, under the flag of the Soviet Union, sought throughout the Cold War (as they had also sought under the Tsars) to increase their territory by absorbing neighboring smaller countries into the Russian Empire, and to increase their geopolitical influence by finding allies in developing countries.
America resisted these efforts, in part by establishing a global system of military and economic/trade alliances, supported in a thoroughly bipartisan manner, starting at least in the 1920s and continuing until now. Due to its economic and military strength, especially after World War II, America was the leader of this “free” coalition, basing its leadership in large part on moral powers—advocacy of human rights, freedom, democracy and free markets--and exercising immense soft power.
This is the “swamp” that Trump proposed to drain: the “establishment” system of military alliances and trade agreements that successfully prevented major wars while enhancing military security against expansionist regimes such as those in Russia. (Some people assumed that the swamp was the network of lobbyists in Washington that sought special favors from Congress and the Administrations, but Trump’s actions since entering the White House have elevated the influence of these “swamp critters” both in terms of appointing their people to high offices and accepting their special-interest policies.)
Irreparable Damage to International Relations
Trump has worked to dismantle that system of America leading the free world since Day One. He has tried to walk back on trade agreements, NATO responsibilities, the Iran nuclear deal, environmental agreements, and human rights, and has by so doing alienates us from key allies, such as Germany, France, the UK, Japan, China… the list goes on and on.
These renunciations of leadership make it more difficult for America to assemble coalitions of allies when it comes to controversial actions, including military actions and trade sanctions.
Trump’s slogan “America First” is an element of this renunciation of leadership: making America weak. If America’s position is “me first”, why should any other nation want to ally with us? What do we offer them with such a position, especially since it invites all other nations to think the same: “what does partnership with America do for ME?”.
Leadership does not come from a me-first attitude: it comes from thinking about us-together and offering potential partners something that they value.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and political power does so even more. Who is opportunistically benefiting from this leadership breach? Russia!
Giving Russia an Upper Hand
Other Trump actions or proposals also play into a Russian strategy. Consider his plan to withdraw America from the Paris Agreement on climate. What does this choice have to do with Russia? Well, to begin with, oil production is the cornerstone of the Russian economy. If American really pulled out of the Paris agreement (which legally we cannot do until November 2020) it would result in increased climate pollution emissions domestically. And the threat to pull out would (at least in the minds of Putin and Trump) discourage other nations from participating.
The net result would be an increase in oil consumption—a result made more likely by the Administration’s proposal to weaken fuel economy standards for cars. It would facilitate deals such as the proposed (but sanctioned) agreement between Exxon and Russia to develop oil fields in the north of Russia.
Higher demand for oil means not only more sales volume for Russia but also higher prices. We have seen the happier expression of this fact over the last five years. America is closer to energy independence that we have ever been since 1973, and most of the difference is the result of increased fuel economy and climate pollution standards for cars and trucks, according to the head of the International Energy Agency. Other countries, including China and the European Union, have also strengthened their standards on motor vehicles. As a result, oil prices and oil consumption have gone down. This hurts oil exporting countries such as Russia, and this pain is reflected in the weakness of the Ruble.
If the Paris Agreement were scrapped, Russia would gain revenues at the expense of American drivers paying more at the pump, without any visible connection. This is like a tax increase with the revenues going abroad to an adversary!
Other actions by the Trump Administration also suggest Russian interference in weakening America. A recent New York Times article found that North Korea obtained its missiles from the Ukraine. Let’s connect the dots here: there are lots of them but connection is easy:
- The legitimate government of Ukraine has no need or desire for missiles, and probably lacks the technology or money to build them in any event.
- But Russian separatists could use them.
- Russian separatists are supported by (or creatures of) Putin, who could easily provide the technology and resources needed.
- Russia has consistently, if somewhat secretly, helped the North Korean regime: the recent sanctions approved by the United Nations Security Council were weaker than the American proposal at the insistence of Russia.
- Russia is North Korea’s second-biggest trade partner.
- Trump appears to be supportive of Putin in many areas.
- Trump knows that supporting a Russian plot to strengthen North Korea would compromise him, so…
- Trump threatens war with North Korea—with words, not military actions—so he looks tough on missiles in North Korea while in fact he is giving in to the Russians.
This argument might sound a little too conspiratorial if it were not just one more example of the same pattern that Trump has displayed throughout this short administration. When the words spoken by an organization are self-inconsistent from week to week, or out of step with the actions they take, one looks for a consistent set of principles that explain and predict past and future actions. The suspicions discussed in this blog seem to provide such a consistent basis for explanation and prediction.
America – From Indispensable to Unreliable
Trump’s waffling on NATO support for countries that border Russia, his one-day-tough-the-next-compromising statements on North Korea, and child-like understanding of international trade policies, and his waffling on condemning American white nationalists, makes foreign leaders dubious about whether America is a reliable partner. This perception weakens us politically not only during a Trump presidency but also thereafter: what if the next President makes a 30-year commitment on environment or defense, and other countries refuse to take it seriously because of concerns that his successor will scrap the agreement?
Weakening America from Within
Trump also weakens America by his lack of resolve on the nation’s creditworthiness. During his campaign, Trump talked shamelessly about the possibility of the Treasury’s defaulting on its debt and renegotiating it, and in 2017 he is blasé about the potential of a default if Congress does not raise the debt limit.
Trump’s domestic priorities, at least to the extent that he has any, also weaken America both domestically and globally. Tax cuts for the rich slow economic growth, according to Congressional Research Service analysis a few years ago, and also skew the distribution of income and wealth away from the poor and middle class. (See https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/11/15/1161941/-CRS-Study-show-that-higher-taxes-on-the-rich-make-us-better-off.) Both of these outcomes weaken America by increasing internal divisiveness and by making America a smaller part of a growing global economy.
Restricting immigration reduces our economic and moral power, by keeping skilled and innovative workers from our job markets and by creating the images of law enforcement officials splitting up families.
Reducing regulations has been tried before in New Zealand and under the Bush II Administration. In both cases, the result was reduced economic strength as well as a compromised environment and reduced consumer and worker safety.
Repealing Obamacare would create severe strains in the financial strength of the health care industry. In the past, when someone showed up at the emergency room with a severe problem but broke, they were treated for free and the costs buried in the accounting conventions. This problem diminished with Obamacare: that is why premiums for those with private insurance were so stable since the Affordable Care Act passed. If we return to the old days, it would put severe financial strain on many hospitals and health care providers, not to mention employers who pay for their staff’s insurance. That’s a set of problems that are in addition to the unnecessary suffering inflicted on people too poor to afford health care but not at immediate risk of death.
And the Administration’s sympathetic attitudes towards white supremacists and its anti-immigrant hysteria have also weakened the country by fanning the flames of hatred and fear.
Republicans are Complicit
So the question is: do Republicans really want America weak? Or will they vote for strength by changing the Administration and its policies?
Why does this decision depend on Republicans? There are two independent reasons why it does, one political and one practical.
The political reason is that virtually all of the issues I discussed where Trump is weakening America are issues that have been of greater importance to conservatives than to centrists or liberals.
The postwar world order is a self-recognized boon to business, but many consumer-based and progressive organizations doubt the importance or even the wisdom of globalization. America’s economic and military pre-eminence and its counterweight to Russia is a Republican value more than a Democratic goal, despite bipartisan support for it. Increasing economic growth, although most stakeholders want it, is also more of a Republican value. The only issue on my list that is mostly a progressive value is the environment (although the reasons why this is so don’t make sense: see https://www.nrdc.org/experts/david-b-goldstein/merchants-doubt-more-just-movie-review-challenge-conservatives-climate).
The practical reason change depends on the Republicans is that the only ways to remove Trump from office require action by the Cabinet or by Congress, and both cannot move without broad Republican support. Democrats are unable to do anything until at least 2019 and perhaps even after 2020 given the severe level of gerrymandering done by Republicans following the 2010 census and current Republican voter suppression efforts.
The other practical reason is that since Obama was elected, the Republican leadership has made it their highest priority to assure that his administration was a failure. A highest priority means one that takes precedence over other priorities: thus defeating Obama would be more important than making America stronger, or more prosperous, or greener. This must change: both parties must place national needs above partisan needs.
So the question remains: do Republicans want a weaker America? Do Democrats? Do you? And if not, do we have the backbone to do something about it?