Amid the jubilation in my circle of friends after Doug Jones’s Senate victory in December, a lot of us began wondering about the possibility of Democratic in-roads across the Deep South in 2018 and esp. 2020. I used to do GOTV in Florida and while my job’s made it tough for me to be as politically active lately, I and fellow volunteers all noticed that—notwithstanding the disappointment of 2016—Florida, like Virginia recently, has been trending more and more Blue. But after some research and discussions with other volunteers and demographers working in the Deep South, it’s clearer than ever than the Deep South is coming within reach.
First to shoot down the myth that often comes up around this: Doug Jones’s victory in Alabama was NOT a one-off. Yes, Roy Moore was an unusually despicable figure even by the low standards of the Trump GOP. But it ultimately wasn’t the abuse allegations that allowed Jones to score his narrow victory there—while it’s clear to any of us here that the guy was a serial abuser, Alabamans themselves overall were at best skeptical of the allegations on Election Day. What enabled Jones to win, as he himself acknowledged, was something much broader and applicable throughout the Deep South and its elections in the near term: massively changing demographics (much faster than Census data have caught up with), rising rage at Trump among minorities and greater tendency to vote, mounting distaste at the “fire and brimstone” style of campaigning among evangelicals (Moore is hardly unique in this among GOP candidates) and even falling approval of Trump among white Southerners, due in major part to his complete failure to confront the opiate epidemic.
The first and last points esp are the keys here. The massive African-American turnout in Alabama was able to tip the scales in major part because so many African-Americans have migrated back to the South in the past decade, so Census data from 2010 and intervening years greatly underestimate their numbers, and most are eligible voters. In addition, Trump’s approval in Alabama has dipped from November 2016 down to about even approval/disapproval, and dissatisfaction among southern whites is a big contributor.
Going into a little more detail:
1. Demographics and minorities motivated to vote by Trump’s sheer despicableness. The Great Migration of African-Americans from the South to Northern and Western cities has been reversing for some time now, but if anything picking up speed in past few years. The result is that Deep South States like Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia and (to a lesser level) Louisiana have been seeing major increases in their African-American populations that Census Data haven’t caught up to. This is a big reason Jones was able to squeak out victory in AL – his splendid GOTV effort had such a major effect because there are far more African-American voters there than in the last census in 2010. Trump’s hateful rhetoric and actions have in turn inspired them, as well as the many Latinos who’ve moved into the state, to rise up in opposition and cast their ballots against the GOP knuckledraggers.
On top of the African-American return migration, Florida in particular has also been seeing a massive rise in its Puerto-Rican population, and not just from the island after Hurricane Maria—hundreds of thousands of “Nuyoricans” and Puerto-Ricans from New Jersey, Illinois and other Northern and Midwestern states have been moving to Florida in recent years, and as citizens, they’re already eligible to vote. As Jones’s campaign in Alabama showed us, if we register and mobilize these new minority voters, then we win in the Deep South, with Florida perhaps the most likely to go from Purple to at least light Blue.
We also have significant new demographic tailwinds helping us to win in Mississippi and South Carolina, which have an even larger percentage of African-American and Latino voters than Alabama and Louisiana. Both states for example, already have a large and growing African-American majority in their schools, with more becoming voting eligible each year as they turn 18, on the top of the African-American return migration from Northern states who Trump and his fellow GOP jerks attack and offend every time they open their foul mouths. This is part of why Democrat Archie Parnell came within a hair of beating Republican Ralph Norman in a conservative S.C. Congressional district last year, he mobilized minority turnout.
Meanwhile even a good portion of Mississippi Republicans hate their Senator Roger Wicker, and if he’s the 2018 nominee, and if the Dems can mobilize the African-American vote, we can win the MS Senate seat this year. Even more so in 2020 when the demographics shift further in our favor in MS. If anything, I feel like Georgia may still be a tough nut to crack even with favorable demographics there, simply because the GA GOP is more organized and unified, the same problem we’ve been having in Texas. But in terms of demographics which again Trump is doing everything in his power to enrage and motivate to vote, both Georgia and Texas are trending our way. Again both have a large and growing African-American and Latino majority in their schools, Hillary came pretty close to winning in Georgia and kept Trump’s Texas margin down to single digits, so Georgia may indeed be winnable by 2020, with Texas absolutely following in 2024.
2. The distaste with Moore had more to do with his oppressive, extreme style of evangelical-themed, “fire and brimstone” campaigning. Moore was almost the caricature of the harsh Deep South judge who’d hold a copy of the Ten Commandments in one hand while brandishing a pistol in the other. And he’s not alone, this is a common tack for Deep South Republicans. There’s just one problem—evangelical Christians have been rapidly falling in numbers in recent years, so this style has less and less appeal. Moore had been unsuccessful in two previous Alabama elections after all, and even though he still received a disturbing majority of the Alabama white vote (close to 80%), the distaste esp among younger voters with his over-religious zeal and extremism on abortion helped to reduce those numbers just enough for Jones to win from the surge in African-American voters. Pointing out the hypocrisy of such candidates, and how out of tune there are with more and more voters even in the Deep South, means more openings for Dems there.
3. Here’s the point that often goes unappreciated: Trump is losing support even among Deep South white voters, too. His approval ratings in Alabama have plummeted steeply from Election Day in 2016. Why? Obviously not just one factor, Americans in general are seeing through his crass false promises to be a populist for the working class and realizing he’s just another plutocrat, filling his cabinet with corrupt billionaires like Devos and Mnuchin while pushing to cut crucial safety nets that white Southerners also depend on. But there’s one area where Trump has fallen especially short: actually doing something concrete about the opiate epidemic, which has been crushing communities in the Deep South.
Some of my friends and fellow volunteers in those states work as nurses or other positions in hospitals, and the toll of the opiates is alarming. In much of northern Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina for ex., the opiate death toll has been so high (and still rising) that it alone is altering the demographics of the states. Trump, meanwhile, sits on his hands and signs a tax bill favoring Wall Street hedge fund managers. Southern whites aren’t happy with this since they’re disproportionately hit hard by the epidemic, and if Dem candidates in the Deep South remind voters of Trump’s negligence on this critical public health issue, they can convince many otherwise conservative white voters to stay home, and maybe even a few to vote for Dems more willing to tackle the issue.
There was a good article in Salon recently that also tackles this:
https://www.salon.com/2017/08/03/the-importance-of-the-fight-for-the-south-why-it-can-and-must-be-won_partner/
Let’s not give in to pessimism or lowered expectations. Howard Dean had the right idea with his 50-state strategy, and with the fast changing demographics of the Deep South and general dissatisfaction with Trump, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina will all be winnable states for Democrats by 2020, some even this year. By 2024 even Texas and Louisiana will be winnable too, and then it’ll be curtains for the GOP and all their corrupt traitors to the American people. Not to mention that if we can notch some victories against them this year in their Deep South stronghold, it’ll further demoralize the Republicans and force them to spend precious resources defending states they once took as givens.