Yep, they’re scared:
A top GOP super PAC is opening two offices in Pennsylvania to pound the pavement ahead of a pivotal special House election there in March.
The Congressional Leadership Fund will open two offices on either side of the Pennsylvania 18th congressional district, which will hold a special election to replace Rep.
Tim Murphy (R) on
March 13. Murphy resigned late last year after damaging reports of an affair surfaced.
Those offices will house at least 50 full-time door knockers, the group announced, meant to convince voters to back the GOP nominee, state Rep. Rick Saccone, over Democrat Conor Lamb.
There’s more:
The Congressional Leadership Fund will open two offices on either side of the Pennsylvania 18th congressional district, which will hold a special election to replace Rep.
Tim Murphy (R) on
March 13. Murphy resigned late last year after damaging reports of an affair surfaced.
Those offices will house at least 50 full-time door knockers, the group announced, meant to convince voters to back the GOP nominee, state Rep. Rick Saccone, over Democrat Conor Lamb.
Pennsylvania’s special election is very simple,” CLF executive director Corry Bliss said in a statement announcing the new offices.
“There are two stark choices:
Nancy Pelosi’s handpicked candidate who will be nothing more than a foot soldier in her liberal war on America, or a proven conservative who will stand for Pennsylvania families and their values.”
The 18th district is typically viewed a safe conservative seat —
President Trump won by almost 20 points in 2016 and Murphy didn't face much electoral competition during his term. But Democrats
are emboldened by their overperformance in special elections held in GOP territory last year, culminating in a high-profile victory in the Alabama Senate special election. Those trends, they believe, could foreshadow a far more competitive race in Pennsylvania than in past years.
Yes, the GOP is scared and G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young can explain why:
The 18th is quintessentially Trump country.
But there are at least six compelling forces playing out in this race that should frighten Republicans and reassure Democrats as the latter try to pick up a “safe” GOP seat heading into the momentous 2018 midterms.
— The political climate. The national political climate has turned sharply against Republican candidates. Particularly worrisome is the so-called generic ballot question pollsters ask regarding which party voters prefer in the next congressional election. Democrats now sport a plus 12.8 advantage in the Real Clear Politics average on that question, a statistic previously associated with massive “wave” elections sweeping incumbents out of power.
— The candidates. Democrats have nominated a centrist, former Assistant U. S. Attorney Conor Lamb, the scion of a respected area political family, who will campaign on such issues as opioids and infrastructure. He has already moved to mute controversy over polarizing issues such as gun control and abortion. Republicans, however, have nominated a conservative firebrand, Rick Saccone, best known for introducing legislation in the state House requiring school districts to post “In God We Trust” in every school. Saccone frequently brags, “I was Trump before Trump was Trump,” while Trump’s approval rating in Pennsylvania sags at about 37 percent.
— Lamb’s union support. In an important union district with about 87,000 union members and families, union leadership support matters. The AFL-CIO has endorsed Lamb. Unions are expected to provide him strong support, including contributions and vigorous get-out-the-vote efforts that are often key in special elections. While Murphy sometimes worked with unions, Saccone recently angered them by voting for a paycheck protection bill.
— The GOP’s enthusiasm gap. Increasingly in the aftermath of Trump’s controversial first year, Democrats are animated and activated while Republicans show less excitement and less enthusiasm. Some of this is playing out in the Democrats' consistent “over performance” in earlier special elections around the country, not least the Democratic upset victory in Alabama. Republican candidates in every special election this year have failed to match Trump’s 2016 numbers. Then, too, Democrats seem genuinely excited about their nominee, whose resume and policy positions paint him as a moderate Democrat.
— The midterm curse. Incumbent presidents lose House seats in midterm years, typically a lot of them. And early as it is, the March special election is really the first midterm in 2018. The history of incumbent losses is a long one. And few if any presidents have been less popular during midterms than Trump is likely to be. The real question for Republicans is not whether they lose House seats, but how many. The early March results will be an important clue to that.
— The wild card. Democrats have some 70,000 more registered voters in the district despite its recent GOP leanings. The enthusiasm gap mentioned earlier may bring some of these voters to the polls. But the true wild card is the current lawsuits challenging the fairness of the congressional districts the state Legislature drew. It is possible that the actual March election might feature a reconfigured 18th District more favorable to the Democrats.
In this mix, Republican Saccone’s perceived ultra-conservatism, coupled with Lamb’s perceived moderation, and Trump’s unquestioned unpopularity, could nationalize the race — nationalizing it might bring a Democratic victory.
Like most special elections, voter turnout will be the key; unlike most special elections, voters just might turn out for this one.
Let’s pull off another Doug Jones-style win in Trump territory. Click here to donate and get involved with Conor Lamb’s (D. PA-18) campaign.