We are approaching peak idiocy, as a new CNN poll heightens the absurdity of a Trump second term, and this time no one really wants Michael Moore to be proven correct again. In this case, CNN spins a poll on one thing (challengers) to signify something else (steep improvement), as the Trump approval rate creeps up.
But here we are, far too early in 2020 polling, and perhaps the poll only measured the solidifying of the Trumpian base, particularly during the Kavanaugh Kourt confirmation battle.
WASHINGTON (CNN)
Americans are becoming more likely to think President Donald Trump will win a second term in office, while Joe Biden stands atop a crowded field of Democrats perhaps looking to replace him, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.
Americans are split on whether Trump will win reelection in 2020
46% Think Trump will win
47% Think Trump will lose
Source: The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS October 4 through 7 among a random national sample of 1,009 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The public is split over whether they think the President will win a second term -- 46% say he will and 47% say he won't. But that's a steep improvement for him since March, when 54% of adults said they thought he'd lose his bid for a second term.
The share seeing a second Trump win in the offing has risen across party lines. The increase is a bit sharper among men (up 8 points), independents (from 39% in March to 47% now) and those who are enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterms (from 37% in March to 46% now).
The President's partisans are just as likely to want him renominated now as they were in March: Seventy-four percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say he should be the party's nominee in 2020, and 21% would rather see someone else at the top of the ticket.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS October 4 through 7 among a random national sample of 1,009 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.
Talking with the Associated Press, GOP strategist Terry Sullivan said that conservative donors have been holding back cash because they already believe saving the House is a lost cause.
“This is going to be a devastating election for Republicans across the ballot,” he said. “Republican donors are smart folks. They’re not going to give money to a losing cause.”
The AP also notes that the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC associated with retiring House Speaker Paul Ryan, has been sending out panicky memos to supporters in recent days warning of a tsunami of money flooding into key races.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats currently have a better than 80 percent chance to retake the House in the 2018 midterm elections.
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