The biggest lesson to be learned from the release of the Trump–Nunes memo has nothing to do with the FBI, or the DOJ, or the FISA court. It has to do with Donald Trump. Because this is the sharpest demonstration to date that Trump’s idea of “loyalty” is a strictly a one-way street. He expects absolutely allegiance from those around him, but he will not hesitate to throw anyone, or anything, under a bus if he thinks it’s to his advantage.
Even if the justification is the most pitiful, puny, transparently artificial piece of self-generated bunk imaginable.
So what happens now? Well, first the memo gets made public. The memo about which Republicans have said:
- “Sickening”
- “Jaw-dropping”
- “Bigger than Watergate”
- “Bombshell”
- “The biggest political scandal in American history”
- “We’re talking about people being charged, going to jail”
- “Is this happening in America or is this the KGB?”
But while the memo clearly has a 9.9 at Fake Tomatoes, others don’t think it’s quite so groundbreaking. Or at least, not groundbreaking in the way Republicans want. The FBI has called it “gravely concerning,” the DOJ has declared “factually inaccurate,” and congressional Democrats have said the memo is “rife with factual inaccuracies” and “a deep disservice to our law enforcement professionals.”
As the memo emerges into public, America is going to find out that: The Hillary Clinton campaign took over payments to Fusion GPS which had been initially hired by Republicans, Fusion GPS hired Christopher Steele to look into Donald Trump’s ties to Russia, Steele found concerning information about Trump adviser Carter Page and took it to the FBI, the FBI added Steele’s information to an already thick file about a man who had been under investigation since 2013, and a FISA judge saw more than sufficient cause to renew surveillance of Page. Not one step of which represents a crime, malfeasance, or even a minor procedural error.
Now Republicans get to defend how this dud of a document justifies the extraordinary build-up and unprecedented action it took to drop this on the public.
Will FBI Director Christopher Wray resign?
Having gone directly to the White House in an effort to halt the release of the memo, and authorized the release of an extremely rare unsigned document voicing the concerns of the entire agency, Wray has definitely put himself on the line over the memo. But when it hits the streets, will Wray follow?
Top White House aides are worried FBI Director Christopher Wray could quit if the highly controversial Republican memo alleging the FBI abused its surveillance tools is released, multiple sources with knowledge of the situation tell CNN.
However, most sources see this as unlikely. Not only is Wray a Trump appointee and a pal of Chris Christie, he’s only been on the job since August. That level of turnover would both contribute to an atmosphere of chaos at the FBI that crippled its day-to-day efforts on non-Trump related issues, but also provide the opportunity for Trump to drop in someone even more ready than Wray to abide by Trump’s demands that the agency be emptied and rebuilt in his image.
It’s more likely that Wray will simply learn that attempting to get Trump to do the right thing on any issue is pointless. Instead, Wray is likely to take a note from his “leave me out of all this” boss, Jefferson Sessions, who has discovered that he can indulge his own proclivities so long as he simply stays out of Trump’s sight.
Will Rod Rosenstein resign?
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein is more clearly on the bubble, as the memo was designed to get two people: Rosenstein and FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. McCabe has already pulled the plug, leaving Rosenstein as the focus for Republican efforts to turn this sow’s ear into something.
But it’s extremely unlikely that Rosenstein will resign without a (hopefully metaphorical) gun to his head. Though he was roped directly into the clear case of obstruction in firing James Comey, Rosenstein’s later appointment of Robert Mueller to be special counsel showed that he recognized the seriousness of what was happening. He’s surely aware that the moment he leaves his position, Trump will replace him with—hey, didn’t Trey Gowdy just announce he was going back to “the justice system?”—someone who will immediately clamp such restrictions on Mueller that the investigation is severely crippled, pending the point where Trump gives the signal for firing.
But of course, the whole purpose of the memo is to weaken the FBI and DOJ specifically to damage the Mueller investigation. Neither Trump nor any of his surrogates have been shy about that. That Rosenstein is forced to resign as part of this, is a far from unthinkable event.
It’s exactly why this is being done.
Sure things
The one thing that can absolutely be expected is a hard-push, no-hold-barred campaign to attempt to build a mountain out of this anthill. Expect the airwaves to be overwhelmed by those sickened, jaw-dropped Republicans shocked, shocked, by this bombshell revelation. Expect Fox News to provided nuclear war level infographics. And expect the Russian bots to fire up the twitterstorm.