It was supposed to be an easy victory for Republicans. Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District hasn’t had a Democrat run for two consecutive election cycles. Donald Trump carried the district by 20 points. Gerrymandered to the point of absurdity, incumbent Tim Murphy had zero chance of losing his seat. That is, until the “pro-life” Republican reportedly pressured his mistress to have an abortion, leading to his resignation in disgrace.
Thus began an interesting series of events that saw a veteran campaigner, Republican Rick Saccone face-off against a Democratic newcomer Conor Lamb in a special election on March 13th. Curiously enough, that date just so happens to be the same as an ancient festival commemorating the triumph of light over darkness & evil.
Under normal circumstances, this should not be a difficult race for Saccone. While technically, Democrats hold a 70,000-person edge in voter registration, but President Trumpcarried the district by 20 points, Murphy won unopposed his last two terms and Saccone is used to winning in districts where his party is in the minority. Moreover, these aren’t progressive Democrats seeking dramatic social change or lining up to #OccupyWallStreet.
PA-18’s Democrats are rust-belt workers, largely blue collar union members who feel as if the national party has abandoned them for sleek, gimmicky ad campaigns on social media that have nothing to do with rebuilding small town America. These are Trump voters, desperate to see an end to the “politics as usual” they witness in DC.
Furthermore, estimates show that Saccone and his backers outspent his opponent 17-to-1. Even campaign visits by Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Donald Jr & Ivanka Trump could not turn the tide.
The 33-year old Lamb has served as an officer in the Marines and a federal prosecutor. Cool under pressure, commanding in presence, and a devout Catholic, he is not by any means a typical Democratic opponent. Lamb’s family has been in politics for generations, and while the mood of electorate is clearly anti-institutional, Lamb has managed to demonstrate to voters that he cares about them over the party line.
That’s an important distinction, even though the DCCC did have staff on the ground & embedded in the campaign. In fact, it’s an important point that could be a lesson for Democrats nationwide: party discipline matters less than retail politics.
While Republicans enjoy an early advantage in national money — they have $40 million in the bank, they are dealing with a growing sense of dissatisfaction with institutional Republicans in Congress, as well as a growing desire by centrists voters to check an increasingly erratic president. This does not translate directly into support for Democrats, as is demonstrated by their lackluster performance in generic ballot polls (Real Clear Politics has Democrats at 45.7%, whereas the GOP is in the mid-30s, both of which are historically low levels of support). It is clear that voters don’t care for the duopoly found in Washington, and want candidates who are uniquely poised to connect with their districts, rather than deliver talking points suited for DC insiders and network television.
Last night’s razor-tight margin in favor of Lamb might very well demonstrate that the steel and aluminum tariffs proposed in recent days by Donald Trump will not have the effect so desired on the electorate. There are 86,000 union households in PA-18, many from manufacturing industries that would otherwise celebrate the tariffs.
Democratic candidates in 40 races are reported to have outraised their Republican opponents, and last night’s victory by Lamb will only continue to bolster those numbers. The RCCC might have a money advantage going into the mid-term elections as of right now, but morale is low among Republican staffers and candidates alike following last night’s impressive performance by Conor Lamb.
Lamb’s message will likely resonate in other center-leaning and center-right leaning districts: ignore Trump, stick to retail engagement of voters, build a strong grassroots movement, and call for new leadership to emerge on both sides of the aisle.
Liberal & Progressive Democrats will feel uncomfortable winning or caucusing with those who win using those tactics, especially because the victors will likely not vote the way the national party is beginning to trend. But having the votes to halt the assault by Trump & the Republicans on Capitol Hill on everything from Medicare & Social Security to human rights for immigrants and minorities will have to take priority when the next Congress sits. For the sake of the country, the blue wave might have a few tinges of purple in it, after all.
Hamza Khan is the founder of The Pluralism Project, a Democratic Strategist with over 10 years of experience on political campaigns, and a candidate for state office in Maryland. Follow him on Twitter @HamzaSKhan.