We dreamed a dream of 435 contested seats in the 2018 midterm elections. Regrettably, that dream appears to have died. But this dream—a dream that, frankly, Democrats should have every two years—didn’t die easily. It died a lot later than previous election cycles, and even as it does, new hopes arise.
On February 28th at noon, the filing deadline for North Carolina congressional candidates passed. No candidate ended up filing in the state’s 3rd district, which has a very competitive primary and could result in an extremist right-wing Republican beating the incumbent winning the nomination. We talked about this race in our last blog, and noted that the North Carolina Democratic Party was actively recruiting for the seat, with multiple potential candidates. Unfortunately, as NCDP Chair Wayne Goodwin noted on Twitter, that didn’t pan out:
As his tweet notes, the NCDP’s recruitment failure in NC-03 wasn’t for lack of trying. If anything, they were just too darn busy sorting through candidates in down ballot state legislative races. This cycle, every single State House and State Senate seat in North Carolina will field a Democratic candidate. And considering how insanely fascist the NC GOP has become, that may be a more worthwhile goal (and yes, I’m saying that in comparison to the Republicans in Congress). In spite of this miss, Wayne Goodwin and the NCDP deserve a lot of credit for their hard work!
Then, a few weeks later, a surprise recruitment failure occurred...but once again, it came about as a result of good news. In the deeply red Georgia’s 8th district, then Democratic congressional candidate Fred Swann chose to drop out of the race...to run for Georgia Agricultural Commissioner. This office was the only statewide race in Georgia in which the Democrats lacked a candidate. Another candidate running an active campaign statewide inevitably means increased turnout statewide, something Georgia needs this cycle. Although this means GA-08 has no Democratic candidate, it was an uphill battle anyway: the seat (once a swing district before gerrymandering and demographic changes) voted for Trump by nearly a 2-1 margin. A statewide race in Georgia has a clearer path to Democratic victory.
Even though there won’t be a Democratic candidate in every seat this cycle, these tough misses came with much good news. Since my last blog post, four otherwise uncontested GOP-held seats gained Democratic candidates:
- MS-03: In Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district, state representative Michael Evans filed to run as the Democratic nominee right before the deadline—a solid recruit with moderate appeal in an open seat that voted for Trump by a 61-37 margin!
- OK-01: In this suburban, Tulsa-based district that inched toward Democrats in 2016, two Democrats declared: Amanda Douglas and Tim Gilpin. This seat is open due to the retirement of the notorious Jim Bridenstine, who Trump considered for NASA administrator but whose nomination has gone nowhere.
- TN-06: Two Democratic candidates also filed in this open seat: Stephen Brandon and Merrilee Wineinger. The incumbent, Diane Black, is running for the Republican nomination for Governor.
- UT-03: Two candidates have filed and plan to seek the Democratic nomination for this seat at Utah’s Democratic Party convention, currently held by recently elected GOP incumbent John Curtis. Kent Moon and John Courage Singer both filed paperwork, meaning someone will be the nominee. The latter, however, also stated in his paperwork that he is not a member of a political party. Is that legal? Maybe. We’ll leave that quandary to the Utah Democrats and check this district off our list!
These candidate declarations mean that (unless a candidate drops out somewhere) every House seat in Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah will have a Democratic candidate on the ballot in November.
Whatever the outcome, one thing is clear: for the first time since 2008, the number of districts that Democrats leave uncontested will likely be in the single digits. As of right now, only 5 GOP-held districts in states whose filing deadlines haven’t passed lack Democratic candidates:
- Kansas: KS-01
- Louisiana: LA-01, LA-04, and LA-5
- Wyoming: WY-AL
Even if none of these five districts land Democratic candidates, that’ll mean only 7 GOP-held congressional seats left uncontested. In the last 20 years, that statistic has been so low in only two election cycles: 2006 and 2008, both major Democratic waves.
All three of these states have late filing deadlines. For Kansas and Wyoming, it’s June 1st. For Louisiana, it’s July 20th. Thus, there is plenty of time to recruit candidates for these seats. All of them are quite conservative, so it will be challenging, but running strong Democratic candidates there remains a worthy endeavor: it spreads the Democratic message, educates voters, and helps hold Republican incumbents accountable.
Other challenges remain: California and Washington have top 2 primary systems that could risk leaving Democratic candidates off the ballot in November (and, in some districts, could leave out Republicans). There’s always the chance that, as with GA-08, a Democratic candidate drops out before the filing deadline. However candidate recruitment this cycle plays out, one thing remains clear: Democrats will be running all across the country in 2018 like never before!
Due to the late filing deadlines for the remaining states, I will likely forgo updates until May or June. Until then, Godspeed, and may The Resistance be with you.