Oh, the waning fortunes of the ever-dwindling number of Americans obsessed with owning and carrying guns…
A new House battleground poll from Global Strategy Group on behalf of Giffords PAC points to a winning strategy on gun safety issues:
… the poll looks into 38 battleground districts that are largely Republican-held. The results prove that embracing gun safety could be the difference-maker for Democrats in key swing districts, particularly because support for stronger gun laws remains high and the National Rifle Association’s favorability is on a downward trend.
In the Republican-leaning districts highlighted in the survey, Democrats lead in the generic ballot jumps from 3 points to 10 points when the debate on gun violence prevention is added in.
Additional Key Takeaways:
- Voters across ideologies support stronger gun laws. 65 percent support stronger gun laws and 48 percent of voters have become more supporter of stronger gun laws over the past few years.
- Congress should act to prevent gun violence. 63 percent of voters are more concerned about Congress not doing anything to address gun violence. Only 37 percent are more concerned about Congress going too far in restricting access to guns.
- Support for the NRA is spiraling downward. The NRA’s favorability is 19 points underwater with voters overall (37 percent favorable/56 percent unfavorable), and 40 points underwater among Independents (25 percent favorable/65 percent unfavorable). Even in Republican-leaning districts, voters increasingly see the organization as yet another special interest group with too much influence over elected officials.
- Voters have become more likely to consider a candidate’s position on guns when deciding who to vote for. 62 percent are more likely to consider a candidate’s position, and among the two thirds of voters who support stronger gun laws, 70 percent are more likely to consider a candidate’s stance on guns.
- Attacking candidates for their failure to act on the issue is a sound strategy. A gun message connecting a generic Republican’s inaction with their NRA allegiance raises doubts about the candidate with 52 percent of voters. This messaging is more potent than any other message tested, including taxes, Social Security, health care, and being a Trump ally.
Giffords PAC also highlights 42 television spots from candidates across the country who are running as pro-gun reform and/or anti-NRA.
This ad from Pat Ryan, running in New York’s 19th District (51-44 Trump) to oust Republican John Faso, is one of the best:
As the percentage of Americans owning guns continues its steady decline (69% do not own a gun), the gun obsessives fanatics enthusiasts who own the vast majority of guns in the U.S. (37% own 2-4 guns, 29% own 5+), along with their patron, the NRA, continue to lose influence.
The message to candidates in swing districts and swing states is don’t shy away from gun policy. In fact, embrace gun reform, gun safety and even a ban on certain types of assault-style weapons and large capacity magazines. Doing so will boost your campaign and your fortunes come November.