www.emerson.edu/...
An Emerson College Poll released today, one day before the state primary, shows Democrats lead in the race for the governorship of Minnesota as well as both Senate races.
Democrat incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar is ahead of her leading Republican opponent, Jim Newberger by a very comfortable 50% to 26%. The second Minnesota Senate seat shows Democrat Tina Smith with a 32% to 28% against Republican Karin Housely. A massive 41% of the voters are still undecided in this race which will likely clarify after the primary. This is the seat that is open due to Al Franken’s resignation.
A look within the Democratic primary for Governor suggests a very close race on Tuesday as voters are split among the top candidates. State Attorney General Lori Swanson is at 29% and Rep. Tim Walz is at 28%. Former state House Majority leader/Emily list endorsed Erin Murphy is statistical tied with the two at 19%, and 24% are undecided/other. (n=217; +/- 6.9%)
On the Republican side, former Gov Tim Pawlenty has a slight advantage over Jeff Johnson for the nomination 43% to 34% with 23% undecided. (n=156, +/-8%). Driving the Pawlenty vote are independent voters in the Republican primary breaking for Pawlenty 66% to 13%, while Republican affiliated voters are breaking slightly for Johnson, 39% to 38%.
All the Democratic candidates start with a lead against either Republican ranging from 5% to 11% margin.
President Trump’s approval rating is lower in Minnesota than his national numbers with a 35% approval compared with his RCP average of 43%. Trump’s disapproval is about the same as his national numbers at 51%. Driving down Trump's popularity appears to be his recent tariffs, which 49% of Minnesotans think are bad for the state; 18% think the tariffs are good.
Democrats lead the generic congressional poll in Minnesota by 48% to 40%, according to Emerson. Four US House seats are rated as tossups by Cook’s Political Report, districts MN CD-1, MN CD-2, MN CD-3, and MN CD-8.
The Minnesota Emerson College Online-Poll was conducted August 8-11, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only somewhat and likely voters, n=500, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 4.6 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, congressional district and 2016 vote difference based on a turnout model. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. The CI for the Democratic Primary, n=217, +/-6.9 percentage points; Republican Primary, n=156, +/- 8 percentage points. Data was collected using an online panel provided by Survey Monkey and Survey Sampling International
The 538 website rates Emerson as a B+ poll.
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www.realclearpolitics.com/...
A TJP Strategies Poll found a tied race for Missouri US Senator between Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill and Republican Josh Hawley with 47% each and only 6% undecided. Hawley is Missouri’s Attorney General so both candidates have won statewide elections previously.
Column % Female Male
Josh Hawley 45% 48%
Claire McCaskill 49% 45%
Undecided 6% 7%
Missouri Emerson Poll by Regions
Regions |
|
Columbia |
KC |
Cape
Gir.
|
Springfield |
Sl |
Hawley |
|
47% |
43% |
61% |
61% |
41% |
McCaskill |
|
47% |
50% |
33% |
34% |
53% |
Emerson also found that Missourians approve of medial marijuana by 54% to 35%. The state’s voters like the idea of raising the state minimum wage to $12 an hour by 2023 by a margin of 60% to 28%. And they also approve of an amendment to the state constitution that would restrict gerrymandering and change limits on campaign contributions by a margin of 61% to 18%.
Survey conducted August 8 through August 9, 2018. 1,785 likely 2018 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2018 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-2.3%. Margins of Error within specific demographics (crosstabs) is significantly higher due to smaller sample size. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by TJP Strategies on behalf of Missouri Scout.
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Matt Hodges @hodgesmr Aug 12