www.centerforpolitics.org/...
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed its ratings on seven US House races today along with two governorships, Colorado and Michigan. All of the changes were in favor of Democratic candidates.
In the US House races, Sabato cites recent polls in some of the districts, especially NYT/Sienna Live Poll which is polling about 100 districts before the election.
www.nytimes.com/...
Overall, the numbers are broadly suggestive of an environment where Democrats appear to be favored in the House, but there are results with which both sides can be pleased.
Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes
Member/District |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
AZ-9 Open (Sinema, D) |
Likely Democratic |
Safe Democratic |
Mike Coffman (R, CO-6) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
FL-15 Open (Ross, R) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
Erik Paulsen (R, MN-3) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
George Holding (R, NC-2) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
NM-2 Open (Pearce, R) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
Chris Collins (R, NY-27) |
Likely Republican |
Leans Republican |
Table 2: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings changes
Governor |
Old Rating |
New Rating |
CO Open (Hickenlooper, D) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
MI Open (Snyder, R) |
Toss-up |
Likely Democratic |
Sabato also writes about polls for Michigan Governor.
Whitmer has led every poll we’ve seen (often by double-digits), and we just don’t see what changes those numbers dramatically in the GOP’s favor in the last month and a half of the campaign. We’re moving Michigan from Toss-up all the way to Likely Democratic, matching our rating in the state’s Senate race. We’ve heard from several sources that the GOP position in Michigan is poor, giving the Democrats a good chance not just to win the governor’s race but also make up ground in the state’s U.S. House delegation.
Unlike in Michigan, where there’s been a lot of public polls, there’s hardly been any in Colorado, although we have heard that Polis is leading, but perhaps only by a small amount. While Polis is an imperfect candidate — he recently snubbed a longstanding rural state political gathering for no good reason that we could tell — he has a ton of money and is running as a Democrat in a Democratic year in a state that is trending Democratic. So Colorado moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. ...
Both of these statewide races as well as the big lead Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow has for reelection can help swing close congressional seats. Colorado CD-6 and CO CD-3 are Republican held districts that are at risk.
Michigan districts CD-8 and CD-11 are close and districts 1, 6, and 7 are at risk of voting out their Republican incumbents.
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O’Rourke Tied in TX, Bredesen +2 in TN
poppolling.com/...
poppolling.com/…
Vox Populi Polling found two very close races for Texas Senate and Tennessee Senate.
Trump has 55% approval in TN and 46% approval in TX.
Senate |
•
|
Tenn. |
|
Sep 16-18 |
|
567 |
LV |
Bredesen |
51%
|
49%
|
Blackburn |
Bredesen |
+2 |
Senate |
•
|
Texas |
|
Sep 16-18 |
|
508 |
LV |
O'Rourke |
50%
|
50%
|
Cruz |
|
Even |
Another poll just popped up by PPP, a Democratic pollster.
politicalwire.com
A new Public Policy Policy survey in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) slightly ahead of challenger Beto O’Rourke (D), 48% to 45%.
That’s well within the poll’s 4-point margin of error.
More reading:
www.charlotteobserver.com/… Could Democrats Flip 3 Seats in NC?