www.mcall.com/...
Two years after Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the Keystone state, the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call survey shows Pennsylvania Democratic Governor Tom Wolf leading by 19 points and Democratic Senator Bob Casey with an 18% lead for reelection.
Wolf has the support of 53% to 34% for Republican Scott Wagner, with “leaners” it is 55% to 36%.
Casey is winning over Republican Lou Barletta 51% to 34%, with “leaners” 53% to 35%.
Voters in the state want Democrats to control Congress by 50% to 39%. Only 41% approve of Donald Trump, 55% disapprove.
www.cookpolitical.com/...
Cook Political Report rates nine Pennsylvania US House districts as at risk of flipping mostly due to a redistricting required by state courts to replace a Republican gerrymander.
Democratic Held Seats:
PA CD-8 — rated likely Democrat
PA CD-14 — rated likely Republican.
Republican held districts:
PA CD-5 and CD-6 — likely Democratic.
PA CD-7 and CD-17 — lean Democratic.
PA CD-1, CD-10, and CD-16 — lean Republican.
If each party wins the districts they are currently favored in, the Democrats would gain three additional seats (gaining 5,6,7,17 and losing 14). They gained one seat due to Conor Lamb’s victory in a special election earlier this year, but before that they held only five seats in the state. Starting with those six districts, the prospects are good that Democrats will have nine of the 18 districts and might have more if big wins in the statewide races boost turnout in the other Republican held districts.
If Democrats won all the seats they currently hold, plus the seven at risk Republican seats, they would have 13. Quite a remarkable change from the five they had last year.
www.monmouth.edu/...
The only really recent poll (September 9) for a Pennsylvania house races is a Monmouth Poll for PA CD-7, a lean Democratic race. Democrat Susan Wild has a six point lead over Marty Nothstein, with neither candidate well known. NYT/Sienna live poll will start polling PA CD-7 tonight.
And, from The Hill concerning PA CD-17:
thehill.com/...
The National Republican Congressional Committee's independent expenditure unit is cancelling its remaining ad reservation in the Pittsburgh media market through Election Day – a potentially grim sign for Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Pa.).