As Anne of Great Hope wrote right after our Aug. 7 primary, Democrats may be able to pick off 3 of the state’s 4 Repugnican-held U.S. House seats this fall. All 3 challengers are women with impressive records.
It won’t be easy. But the thing with WA’s all-mail elections, is that results tend to get substantially bluer than election-night returns.
Let’s look at the final primary vote tallies for these 3 seats, and see where our chances stand.
The Stealth: WA-03
This curious district is anchored by Vancouver, a stepchild suburb of Portland Oregon, mixed in with a rural and small-town swath of southwestern WA. The latter includes the rather conservative Lewis County, which is actually closer (and more closely related economically) to super-lefty state capital Olympia, but is unfortunately wiped south into WA-03, helping make this a Cook’s PVI R+4 district.
Incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler, one of the GOP’s few token women of color, slid into this open seat in 2010 (vacated with awful timing by Democrat Brian Baird) and has never been at risk since. She’s toyed with the “moderate Republican” facade, but at present 538 gives her a Trump Score of 91%, >10% to the right of what’s expected given her district. Most repulsively, despite being part Mexican she voted for Drumpf’s racist immigration bill, and was among the last to speak out against ICE child kidnapping.
Well, now she’s getting into some heat. Even though 538 still rates her a good 7-9% ahead and the supposedly “safest” of the 3 endangered Republicans, she only won 42% in the primaries — the weakest among all the state’s incumbents — leading Democratic challenger and political science professor Carolyn Long by 6.8%. More importantly, if one tallies all R votes vs. all D votes in our single-pool top-two primary, you get to 51% R vs. 49% D. And that’s in the August primary, when turnout skews older, whiter, more conservative.
I noticed this already on election night when the gap was wider on paper. Great minds think alike: Carolyn Long is now an official Daily Kos endorsee, announced recently in the batch of under-the-radar pickup opportunities. Donate to her on the Daily Kos link, so that she knows where the love came from :) Here’s her volunteer sign-up form if you live close enough to help (PORTLANDERS, I’m talking to you!).
The Celebrity: WA-08
This second-newest WA district on the east/southeast outskirts of greater Seattle (created after 1980) has never elected a Democrat, but has voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate at least since 2004. Always on the Dems’ pickup list, it seemed to fall out of reach after the 2010 redistricting made it redder. Our state has a stupid “bipartisan” redistricting committee, where often the two parties cut deals to make fewer competitive districts. Still, the entire area keeps drifting left, and Cook’s PVI here is dead even.
Enter Drumpf, and 7th-term incumbent Dave Reichert announces retirement. In steps Dino Ross, himself Grand Master of the Four-Flush hand. He rose to national fame when losing the 2004 governor’s race after two recounts, and has obsessively returned in 2008 (rematch) and 2010 (U.S. Senate) to only lose more and more badly. He actually lives in WA-08, so of course he could not resist.
On one hand, facing someone with this name recognition and experience is a challenge. OTOH, Rossi is such a sleazebag that this recognition is more notoriety than fame. Everyone and their sister and brother will be watching this race, but if the Dems don’t pick this one up it might signal trouble at the national level.
There was no clear frontrunner among the slate of Democratic candidates, and pediatrician Kim Schrier just barely made 2nd place with 18.7% of the vote. Rossi had 43%, but the total vote tally was 50.2% D, 46.8% R. Nearly 3% went to independent/centrist candidates which complicates matters. 538 currently rates this a near-perfect tossup, but with 2018’s dynamics, with the entire Dem resources of Greater Seattle at our disposal (no other competitive Federal races), and with such a clean well-credentialed challenger vs. a used-car sleazy opponent - if the Democrats cannot pull WA-08 off, Nov. 6 might be a really sad night.
Dr. Schrier’s donation link and volunteer link.
The Stretch: WA-05
This one, too, is personal for Democrats: an attempt to take out an annoying member of national Republican leadership, and also to drive a stake through the heart of bright-red Eastern Washington in one fell swoop. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers needs no introduction and has no excuses left. If one looks under the hood, the city of Spokane and the college town of Pullman make WA-05 less red than it seems: Cook’s PVI R+8. And yet, the incumbent never had trouble keeping the seat during her 7 terms. Her narrowest win was in the 2006 Dem wave election, when her margin was “only” 12.8%. But her district has gotten gradually tired of her, so even the national press has noticed her vulnerability this year.
Challenger Lisa Brown, a former university professor and chancellor who initiated the creation of the first public medical school in Eastern Washington, won 45.4% of the vote to the incumbent’s 49.3%. Unfortunately, all other primary candidates were Republicons (well, one candidate actually stated preference to “Trump Populist Party”, complete with a loony rant on the taxpayer’s dime in the official pamphlet… which was enough to get him 2.4% and third place). So it will be quite a challenge, to bring out all these college kids who were away on summer break, etc. etc.
But it’s doable. Lisa Brown donation site and volunteer sign-up form.