I have a thought experiment for all the "Is the deal now that we have to replace the white guy just because he is white?" people.
Let’s pretend for a second that Ayanna Pressley is a white dude named “Andy” Pressley.
Andy is young and ambitious in an election year full of political newcomers.
Everyone tells Andy "Don’t be a fool—don't challenge Mike the Incumbent, he’s a 20-year House member. The party machine won’t be able to help you. All the current elected officials will endorse Mike, and the big donors will too—you’ll never raise enough cash. You will just embarrass yourself and waste a lot of time and money; why make powerful people angry? You're a rising star, people have noticed your talent, but if you do this you will piss off the very people most likely to help you in the future. You're young. Wait your turn."
Andy has the gonads to run anyway.
His slogan echoes other long shot candidacies people remember fondly: Change Can't Wait.
He travels all over the district, using old school community organizing techniques. Going to senior centers, barber shops, block parties. Asking small businesses to put signs in the window. Engaging with people at bus stops, in parks, on basketball courts. Raising small dollar donations by speaking at house parties in modest homes. Standing to corners where the incumbent would not be recognized if he walked into the Dunkin’ Donuts. Going to neighborhoods where a lot of older voters haven't known their Congressman's name since Joe Kennedy II stepped down, and a lot of voters blank that line because the race is always unopposed.
Andy's public speaking style is authentic and compelling, with bold vision expressed in simple, accessible language. He talks to people who feel forgotten and tells them he has not forgotten them and will never forget them. His upbringing resonates with theirs, and they can see for themselves he has overcome a lot of youthful hardship to get close to the halls of power. When he says he wants to be their voice, they believe him. When he says “the people closest to the pain should be the closest to the power”, the people closest to the pain say “Damn right!”
Months go by before Mike the Incumbent realizes this is a real primary challenge. Up until then everyone around him was saying “This kid Andy is nothing serious. His City Council campaigning experience will not translate to the CD level. He doesn’t know to compete in this district. How can he possibly beat you? Most of the people don't even know Andy's name. This district is never going to vote for anyone who looks like him, or with a background like his.”
Andy keeps running hard anyway. Andy knows the polls don't measure the high level of anger toward DJT in the district, or the groundswell of newly-woke/newly-registered voters radicalized by the current events who are just figuring out they better start paying attention to politics if they want to push back on Rcon evil. Polls don't measure the electric hush in the room as he tells his personal story and people lean forward to hear his every word, or the fist pumping and applause and exclamation in the room every time he tears Trump and the Republicons a new one without ever mentioning any names. And polls don't measure the way he excites the "I usually don't bother voting" demographic.
Mike the Incumbent is a workhorse who votes the right way and gets all the right things done, but in twenty years no one can ever remember him giving voice to the Resistance—not while Romney was governor, not while Dubya was president, not while Baker was governor, not while DJT was president—and 2018 is a year when the Resistance is desperate to be heard. The district doesn't want quiet behind the scenes power in the age of Trump. The big blue wave in Massachusetts wants to crash against the shore and make the kind of splash that gets noticed.
When summer comes Mike realizes with a jolt that maybe he's the one who doesn't know how to compete in the district. He hasn't run in a primary since 1998, when he won with a plurality of only 23% in a field of ten candidates, mostly drawing on his loyal base of support as Mayor of Somerville. And he has had the luxury of not facing a Republican challenger in the general for nine election cycles. In short, he hasn't had a contested race in 20 years.
The only two official polls show Mike the Incumbent safely ahead by double digits. But the incumbent is shocked, expecting polls would show a lead much larger, and no lead is safe in Fenway. Boring 20th century ads listing all the affinity groups who have endorsed the incumbent start running on TV, on the soap operas and The Price Is Right and the local news programs.
Andy can't afford a big TV ad buy, but is using social media very well, inspiring young voters who see themselves in him. Andy is also using community-based media well, getting good word of mouth in the neighborhoods, inspiring older voters who see him as a child or grandchild living the dream they always dreamed for themselves. Andy posts great ads on YouTube and Twitter and the resulting peer-to-peer sharing is effective at reading persuadable voters.
As the campaign continues, Andy stays patient with the endless “Why are you challenging a good man doing a good job? Aren't you hurting the party by going up against such a reliable vote with all that seniority? Why can’t you leave well enough alone. Why are you DOING this?" questions. Some of us would have long ago snapped back with “Who TF are you to imply I shouldn’t do this??? You’d best check any and all elements of your privilege that tell you I don’t have as much right to run for this seat as anyone else!”
After AOC wins NY-14, pundits start looking around for other races that could offer a similar surprise. Suddenly all eyes are on MA-07 and the national press starts sniffing around. In the final weeks press coverage and money pour in and momentum builds...
When Andy wins the primary Mike the Incumbent's supporters are furious. Our guy did an OK job—better than OK! He deserved to be set for life and keep that seat as long as he wanted it.
Who does this Andy think he is?
Now, seriously. Are you telling me that if race and gender were not a factor, this fresh faced “Andy” candidate wouldn’t sound good to you?
Are you denying the lived experience of people in the district who say that while race and gender and the opportunity to make history are important, they have additional reasons for being highly motivated to vote for change?
Are you satisfied with static leadership for a generation even as the needs and demographics and concerns of the district (and the country) are in a state of unprecedented turbulence?
Do you think a candidate who won twenty years ago when 77% of the district wanted someone else, should have lifetime tenure and the privilege of coasting basically unopposed for as long as he wants the seat?
If “Andy” were a young fresh faced white male progressive insurgent, most of you would be extremely excited about “bold, visionary, activist leadership”.
Yes, Capuano did yeoman duty for a generation. He could always be counted on to vote the right way. I have no particular complaints about him.
I have no particular praise for him either. And this historic district deserves someone more exciting than Mr. Cellophane.
My mom used to say that real equality would arrive when black people no longer needed to have outrageously extraordinary ability to be considered worthy to compete with white people of merely above-average ability.
We’re not there yet. Because Ayanna is outrageously extraordinary.
And I am certain that most of the people here getting on her case for having the audacity of hope, would be cheering her on with enthusiasm if they identified with her social location.
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Link to previous entries in the True Blue Report series