I love following the polls. They make you feel like you might be able to see into the future. But they can also be misleading.
People here and elsewhere have been trying to use the polls to guess who the 2020 Democratic nominee is. At various points Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg and Harris seemed to be on a path to the top, but all have also been dismissed as dead-enders. Other than Harris, all are still very much in the fight. So what can we say at this point?
Nothing much, it turns out. Let’s look at three previous primary presidential campaigns. In both 2008 and 2016 there were no incumbents to bias the race on either side. I won’t include the 2016 Democratic primary campaign, because with only two substantial candidates it is hard to compare to the current one. Here’s the Republican electorate in 2008, picking the candidate who would follow Bush Jr. The vertical blue line marks the same date as today, December 5th:
Where the blue line is, was where we are today. Everything beyond it was still the unknown future. Rudy Giuliani, America’s Mayor, Mr. Nine Eleven, was coasting on at the top of the heap, as he had for months before. Dark horse Fred Thompson, a tough-guy actor turned politician, had been at number 2 for awhile but now was declining. Sen. McCain, who’d looked promising in the spring, was apparently continuing his slow fall to irrelevance. Folksy theocrat Mike Huckabee was surprisingly rallying his way to the top, perhaps at Giuliani’s expense.
Could anyone have predicted from the polls alone, on that December 5th, that Giuliani would crash and burn by Iowa, and that McCain would easily claim the nomination?
Here are the Democratic primaries from the same year:
Not as many candidates, so not as much action. On December 5th, Hillary Clinton, Senator and former first lady, an experienced politician and favorite, had been coasting along, fairly near the 50% mark. The left flank had been split between firebrand progressive John Edwards and the more centrist Senator Barack Obama, but even put together they barely matched Clinton. Obama alone was 15% behind Clinton.
However, after lackluster results in his home state of South Carolina, Edwards quit the race. Following a tough primary season, Obama won the nomination.
The 2016 Republican primaries, like the 2020 Democratic ones, started out with quite a lot of candidates:
By December 5th it was already looking like it was going to come down to djt, Cruz, and Rubio. The only one who ever got close to djt was, of all people, Ben Carson. In the end only djt, Cruz and Kasich were left, and it wasn’t until later in the spring that the djt won.
A few things are common in crowded elections. Early frontrunners may coast on familiarity, until closer attention brings out their favorables or unfavorables. Giuliani’s corruption (R ‘08) and Thompson’s (R ‘08) and Carson’s (R ‘16) incompetence brought them down. Obama’s skill under pressure became evident during the campaign and pushed him to the top.
Some things are different between the present Democratic primaries and the Republican primaries of 2016. You got the impression that in 2016 most Republicans found most candidates unexciting. djt was an anomaly, in that half of Republicans found him very exciting indeed, while the others found him anywhere between disturbing and horrifying (they all learned to pledge their undying love, in any case.)
In contrast, most of us find most of the Democratic candidates to be good, interesting, and in many cases inspiring. It comes down to having to choose from among a great number of them. I personally don’t think any of the current top five are 100% perfect, but I’d sleep easy with any of them in the White House. I believe many Democrats share my feelings.
So what could happen in the next few months?
- With fewer candidates, more scrutiny could fall on Biden and his positions, which either pulls him up to a quick victory or pulls him down toward a prolonged primary season with uncertain results.
- Warren could remain where she is without recovering, or could pull herself back up. I would be skeptical anyone could pull back from such a steep decline in the polls, but she has pulled herself back nicely from the Cherokee mess, too. She might be able to do it again.
- Harris’s voters all move toward some other candidate, giving them a boost in buzz and reputation.
- Buttigieg peaks before Iowa and then fades away, or he proves to be teflon-coated and persistent, and like Obama climbs to the top.
- Sanders… I wish something would happen with his campaign, but I can’t imagine what it would be. He’s inspiring, but so is Julian Castro. That alone does not get you votes.
- 30% of the current primary votes go to the minor candidates or to “Don’t Know”. They could break toward one of the candidates unexpectedly.