In WNY we used to get them happening from around Feb 1st
to perhaps mid February or later..
We appear to be having one now, as it's been 40o f and higher
(AGW is perhaps exacerbating them....?)
NOAA temperature records for WNY:
weather.gov/...
❄️
January thaw
is a term applied to a thaw or rise in temperature in mid-winter found in mid-latitude North America.
en.m.wikipedia.org/…
.January thawing progresses later in the month as one travels eastward across Canada - eg, January 16-23 in Edmonton, 18-24 in Winnipeg, 19-27 in Montréal, 21-28 in Charlottetown and 25-28 in St John's. This eastward progression of warming during the third and fourth weeks is consistent with similar events in the US.
www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/…
- For five days around January 25, temperatures are usually significantly warmer than predicted by the sinusoidal estimate, and also warmer than neighboring temperatures on both sides.[citation needed]
During this "thaw" period, usually lasting for about a week, temperatures are generally about 6 °C (10 °F) above normal. [2] This varies from year to year, and temperatures fluctuate enough that such a rise in late-January temperature would be unremarkable; what is remarkable (and unexplained) is the tendency for such rises to occur more commonly in late January than in mid-January or early February, which sinusoidal estimates have to be slightly warmer.en.m.wikipedia.org/...
The January thaw is believed to be a weather singularity. A possible physical mechanism for such phenomena was offered in the 1950s by E.G. Bowen: he suggested that some "calendaricities" (as he called them) might be explicable in terms of meteoric particles from cometary orbits acting as ice nuclei in terrestrial clouds;[3][4][5] his theory then received some support from several sources.[6] However, Bowen’s ideas later fell out of favour with the development of atmospheric dynamic modelling techniques, although one of his rainfall peaks does seem to correspond with the date of the January thaw.[3][7]
en.m.wikipedia.org/…
❄️
(The Daily Bucket is a nature refuge.
We amicably discuss animals, weather, climate, soil, plants, clouds ,rocks, waters, the Earth-
and note life’s patterns.
We invite you to note what you are seeing around you in your own part of the world, and to share your observations in the comments below.)
❄️
The causes of the foehn effect in the lee of mountains. Adapted from [1].
A föhn or foehn (UK: /fɜːn/,[2][3] US: /feɪn/) is a type of dry, warm, down-slope wind that occurs in the lee (downwind side) of a mountain range.
A strong föhn wind can make snow one foot (30 cm) deep almost vanish in one day.where the Canadian Prairies and Great Plains meet various mountain ranges, although the original usage is in reference to wet, warm coastal winds in the Pacific Northwest.
en.m.wikipedia.org/…
❄️
Chinooks are most prevalent over southern Alberta in Canada, especially in a belt from Pincher Creek and Crowsnest Pass through Lethbridge, which get 30–35 Chinook days per year, on average. Chinooks become less frequent further south in the United States, and are not as common north of Red Deer, but they can and do occur annually as far north as High Level in northwestern Alberta and Fort St. John in northeastern British Columbia, and as far south as Las Vegas, Nevada, and occasionally to Carlsbad, in eastern New Mexico.
en.m.wikipedia.org/...
Föhn can be initiated when deep low-pressure systems move into Europe, drawing moist
Mediterranean air over the
Alps.
It is a rain shadow wind that results from the subsequent adiabatic warming of air that has dropped most of its moisture on windward slopes (see orographic lift). As a consequence of the different adiabatic lapse rates of moist and dry air, the air on the leeward slopes becomes warmer than equivalent elevations on the windward slopes. Föhn winds can raise temperatures by as much as 14 °C (25 °F)[4] in just a matter of minutes. Central Europe enjoys a warmer climate due to the Föhn, as moist winds off the Mediterranean Sea blow over the Alps.
en.m.wikipedia.org/...
Though they are a verified weather phenomenon, January Thaws don’t happen every year. In order for a singularity like the January Thaw to be recognized, it only has to appear slightly more than 50 percent of the time.
❄️
The January Thaw, like Indian Summer, is more than just another piece of fanciful weather lore. Annual averages really do show a slight temperature increase, and subsequent dip, during the final week of January. On average, January 23 is the coldest day of the year in much of the Northern Hemisphere. Almost exactly six months later sits July 24, the warmest day of the year, on average. Between those two dates, average daily temperatures show a fairly predictable rate of increase. While there may be deviations from that pattern during any given year, the model holds true when looked at over a period of several years.
Though predictable, the climb from cold weather to warm and back again, is not completely smooth. Small “blips” in the overall pattern reveal noticeable fluctuations that can be observed from year to year. These blips are called singularities in weather lingo. Indian Summer, a period of unseasonably warm weather that usually appears in mid-October, is one such blip. The January Thaw is another.
During the January Thaw, which usually lasts for about a week, temperatures rise an average of 10° F higher than the previous week, then drop back down in time for February’s arrival. Though it’s called a “thaw,” the January Thaw doesn’t necessarily melt away snow and ice during its stay. In areas where winter weather is exceptionally cold, temperatures during the thaw may not even rise above freezing. More temperate regions, however, may even experience what could be described as a “false spring.”
.
Sometimes called a "January thaw", it brings a respite from the often-intense freezing cold, a gift from New England's quirky climate to the snow-clad landscape.
During a mid-winter thaw, temperatures may rise into the 60°s F (15° C), or even the low 70°s F (20° C) in southern New England for a few days, melting snow and ice, bringing people out of doors to sit in the sun, and generally lightening the load of cold in a winter of New England's climate.
But there is no guarantee that any particular winter will have a mid-winter thaw. It may or may not happen—which is what makes it such a precious interlude when it does.newenglandtravelplanner.com/…
.
Jan 21, 2010 · perceived, occasional warming in mid-winter known as the January thaw. This is defined ... Certainly the highly variable nature of winter weather in New England ensures that ..
Pdf
❄️
The frequent midwinter thaws in Great Plains Chinook country are more of a bane than a blessing to gardeners. Plants can be visibly brought out of dormancy by persistent Chinook winds, or have their hardiness reduced even if they appear to be remaining dormant. In either case, they become vulnerable to later cold waves. Many plants which do well at Winnipeg (where constant cold maintains dormancy all winter) are difficult to grow in the Alberta Chinook belt; examples include basswood, some apple, raspberry and Saskatoon varieties, and Amur maples. Trees in the Chinook-affected areas of Alberta are known to be small, with much less growth than trees in areas not affected by Chinooks. This is once again caused by the 'off-and-on' dormancy throughout winter.en.m.wikipedia.org/…
January thaw, or bonspiel thaw as it is called on the Prairies, is a climatic phenomenon of unseasonably warm weather that tends to occur at about the same time every year, usually within about 10 days after the middle of January. Generally, the January thaw is gradual and temporary, lasting anywhere from a few hours to a week. Specifically, a "pronounced thaw" consists of at least 2 consecutive days with a maximum temperature of 2° C or more.www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/…
Toronto only once in 150 Januaries has had no thaw period, whereas Halifax has never had a thawless January. On the other hand, Winnipeg experiences a January thaw in slightly more than half of the years and a pronounced thaw in fewer than a quarter of them.www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/...
❄️
Links:
Windy
www.windy.com/...
"SPOTLIGHT ON GREEN NEWS & VIEWS"
EVERY SATURDAY AT 3:00 PM PACIFIC TIME ON THE DAILY KOS FRONT PAGE.
IT'S A GREAT WAY TO CATCH UP ON DIARIES YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED. BE SURE TO RECOMMEND AND COMMENT IN THE DIARY.
(Link at):
dailykos.com
*
What's up in your natural environment?
to join us go to:
.dailykos.com/…
❄️
El Niño (/ɛl ˈniːn.joʊ/; Spanish: [el ˈniɲo]) is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called "La Niña" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, cause global changes of both temperatures and rainfall.[1]
]en.m.wikipedia.org/...