Today I “conducted” a very informal focus group type exercise among 5 retired women in a upper middle class suburb of St. Louis MO about 2020 Dem. candidates. All 5 had voted for Hillary in 2016. None had anything positive to say about Trump although most were worried about his continuing hold on “the base.” This is not a representative sample of anything but white women over 70 but all are reliable Dem. primary voters.
When asked about 2020 no one had made a firm decision. When prompted about impressions, if any, of announced and potential candidates the candidates were in three groups. Tier one is simply those candidates with high name recognition and generally positive impressions — Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Eliz Warren, in that order. Biden, especially, gets credit for experience/loyalty to Obama and longevity without scandal. Tier 2 consists of “heard ofs” and “I like her/him”: in no order Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, and (barely) Cory Booker and J. Castro. The “never heard ofs” are the rest. No one wanted Hillary to run. Three of the 5 said they preferred a woman but two of them would have no problem with Biden. No one wanted a billionaire although one seemed open to “another choice.”
None of this is very surprising but even those with a preference are very fluid at this point. Also, it’s really just a supposition, but given the standard that Trump has set I think negative campaigning will be less of a factor on the Dem side in 2019 and 20. It will take a “real” scandal to make an impression, at least with these senior women. Rumors of a past affair or pot/drinking problem won’t be enough to sink most Democrats with any sort of identity. It’s hard to imagine a scandal on the Dem side that might cause any of these women to side with Trump.