This is a companion / appendix piece for Presidential Primary Mathematics related diaries, includes a few generic FAQs about the primary as well. Will keep adding as and when more things need adding. The main sources will be published at https://www.dailykos.com/blogs/DelegateMathematics2020
1. What is this Three Tier Caucus System people hard on about?:
This applies only to states that select delegates through caucus method. Most caucus states use a three tier/stage system to elect delegates. Each stage elects delegates to next stage who in turn elect to next stage. The three stages being precint level, county level, and finally congressional district level. Statewide are at same stage at Cd levels. The caucus happens just a few housr prior top state caucus.
2. This State delegate equivalent stuff? This applies to states that hold caucuses. In a caucus process which happens in three different stages as three different calendar events, it is hard to predict the final stage delegates. Those will depend on if anyone misses their duty to show up on subsequent stages of caucus. So initial results are calculated to indicate how many state delegates to national convention are predicted based on stage 1 (precint) results. The final number might vary by one or two.
3. Delegate distribution at congressional district level and at-large delegates, what on earth are these?
Democratic Party uses a "fair apporptionment method" also sometimes known as "Fair Reflection of Preferences". This is where the number of delegates a candidate is awarded is based on the proportion of their share of votes (or caucus participants).
Each state is allocated a basic number of deletages (votes) in national convention. This number is based on cumulative average proportion of states popular votes for Democratic Candidate in the last three presidential election and the states share of electoral college clout.
It also rewards states according to their share of popular votes for a Democratic candidate in presidential election.
The allocations are calculated separately for each CD (Congressional District) and separately for the two state-wide categories. Roughly 25% of delegates are selected from statewide results and 75% distributed between congressional districts.
This allows for delegates to be distributed across congressional districts and at the same time being fair to candidates whoose support might be concentrated in specific geography within the state.
4. Why do different districts have different number of delegates? why are they not equal?
Within a state the distribution of delegates in congressional districts are based on,
- how many people voted for Democrat in the last two Presidential election
- how many people voted for Democrat in the last presidential and governors election
- How many people voted for Democrat in the last presidential election and number of registered/enrolled Democrats.
While most congressional districts within a state are roughly of same population size, the number of votes for Democrats and Democratic Party strength will not be same in each district.
This allocation in effect rewards districts that have higher Democratic Party strength, as reflected by votes and registration/enrollment. The extra boosts for a district comes from the votes for President and Governor. So we have different number of delegates from different districts.
You can also tell just from the number of delegates allocated a district, which ones are Demoratic Party strongholds. This is more visible in for example South Carolina where allocations range from 3 delegates for CD3 to 8 for CD6
5. What is this PLEO stuff?
PLEO (aka Party Leaders and Elected Officials), these are a category of national convention delegates. As the name states only Party Leaders and Elected Offcials are able to compete for a slot in the state delegation party allocated to this grouping. They still have to confirm who they will vote for at the National Convention. They still have to contest their spot and gather enough supporters to be elected as delegate. It is a mechanism for ensuring that the operating backbone of local party has a representation and participation at the National Convention. (Mayors, Party Chairs/Vice Chairs, party officials, etc etc).
These are selected based on statewide results of primary.
On top of the base state delegate (vote) allocated to a state, an extra 15% of the basic delegate are awarded to a state to be used to provide spots for delegates from this group.
6. So PLEO (aka the establishment) can steal the election?
No. No. and one more No.
PLEOs will still be fully pledged to vote for a particular candidate. They are not free to just vote willy nilly. They have to declare beforehand who they will vote for. And they will get selected based on the proportion of the states primary result that aligns with their declared intention and promise to vote for president at the convention.
The "free agents" see item below.
7. Automatic delegates: These are delegates to national convention who get there by virtue of their current or past office. This includes the following
- Current members of the DNC (Democratic National Committee)
- Past and current Democrat Presidents, Vice-Presidents, Chairs of DNC, Leaders of the Senate, Speakers of the House, Minority leaders of House
- Current (sitting) Democrat members of US House of Representatives, US Senators
- Current (sitting) Democrat Governors of States, Mayor of DC
None of them will cast a vote at the first round of Presidential nomination at the convention. So they only come ionto play if the first round fails to nominate the Democratic Presidential candidate.
8. What is this delegate threshhold and trigger business?
Due to "fair reflection" calculations there are certain percentage threshholds which results in a cadidate receiving a delegate. The percentages are based on total number of delegates available in a delegate allocation unit (the polity for which delegates are allocated).
In order for a candidate to achieve an extra delegate, the candidate would have to perform at the next higher level opf primary vote support for it to translate into a delegate.
1. In a district with 1 delegate, it is simple. The candidate who crosses 50% gets that 1 delegate.
2. In a district with 2 delegates the first delegate is awarded at 25% of the primary votes. The next delegate is triggered at 75%. The steep climb from 25% to 75% amkes it harder and thus districts with 2 delegates are mostly uncompetitive.
3. In a district with 3 delegates first delegate achieved is triggerred at 16.7% and next at 50% and then another at 83.3%.
for districts with 4 or more delgates the minimum point has been set at 15%.
4. In a district with 4 delegates they get triggerred at 15%, 37.5%, 62.5%, and 86% respectively.
5. In a district with 5 delegates, the trigger percentages are 15%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 85%
With each of the states, as and when I write up their primary election diary, I will be sure to include this data for each district.
The threshhold/trigger is an effect and the information it provides can be seen in a few different ways
- the more delegates there are from a district, the smaller the increment in votes needed to gain a delegate.
- In districts with higher number of delegates second delegate is cheaper (more easy) to achieve.
- While theoretically possible, getting all delegates is extremely hard
- Where detailed data regarding level of support is internally available, it can highlight the potential districts where extra delegates can be picked up cheaper than others
Depending on the number of competting candidates, different districts become more important in providing that extra delegate who will separate a candidate from others.
in a two candidate contests, Districts with odd number of delegates are the places where advantages are accrued.
In a three candidate contest, districts with (3x+1) that is multiple of 3 plus one delegates provide that edge, while districts with (3x-1) delegates punish the lagger.
In a four candidate contests, districts with 1, 2 or 3 candidates go towards weeding the the one with lower support. Districts with (4x+1) will give advantage to who ever is marginally ahead.
Where candidates should focus their effort depends on their internal polling level and decide which districts offer a better chance of crossing a trigger/threshhold that awards them extra delegate.