The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Independent Expenditures: With Election Day three weeks away, we're rolling out our newest tool to help keep tabs on the large playing field that will determine control of the House: a spreadsheet that sums up the independent expenditures made prior to Monday by the four largest outside groups involved in House races—the DCCC and House Majority PAC for Democrats, and the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund for Republicans. With this data, you can see which contests the major players think are competitive, and how much money they've devoted to each one, so far.
Campaign Action
In total, these groups have spent almost $183 million on 58 different contests, and it's split very evenly: 29 of these seats are held by Democrats and 28 by Republicans, with Republican-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash's seat also targeted by both parties. (One of the GOP's "targets," however, is just a stunt: Nancy Pelosi.) To date, the GOP has spent $92 million and Democrats $90 million, but this doesn't account for the huge financial advantage that Democratic campaigns themselves have overall.
Assigning all vacant seats to the party that previously controlled them, Republicans have 201 seats in the House, meaning they'd need to make a net gain of 17 in order to win the 218 seats necessary for a majority. While that might not seem like a large number, especially given than 30 Democrats sit in districts Donald Trump carried in 2016, Republicans are playing as much defense as offense, making flipping the House a very tall order.
We explain more about how this tracker works—and what it does and doesn't include—in our introductory post, or you can just dive right into the data. We'll be issuing updates every week through the election.
3Q Fundraising
● KS-Sen: Barbara Bollier (D): $13.5 million raised, $7.6 million cash-on-hand
● SC-Sen: Jaime Harrison (D): $57 million raised
● AK-AL: Alyse Galvin (I/D): $1.8 million raised
● TX-21: Chip Roy (R-inc): $1.46 million raised, $2.4 million cash-on-hand
Senate
● GA-Sen-B: Both the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and the Republican pollster Landmark Communications, working on behalf of WSB-TV, are out with new surveys of the Georgia Senate special that show pastor Raphael Warnock firmly in first place in the all-party primary. First up is PPP, with its June results in parentheses:
- Pastor Raphael Warnock (D): 41 (20)
- Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 24 (21)
- Rep. Doug Collins (R): 22 (23)
- Businessman Matt Lieberman (D): 3 (11)
- Former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver (D): 0 (3)
The sample also has Joe Biden edging out Donald Trump 47-46.
Next is Landmark, which is releasing numbers in this contest for the first time:
- Warnock (D): 36
- Loeffler (R-inc): 26
- Collins (R): 23
- Lieberman (D): 3
Landmark shows Tarver, whose support also rounded down to 0%, behind five additional candidates. Respondents favor Trump 49-47.
Until recently, most polls showed Loeffler in first place while Warnock and Collins were in a tight race for the second spot in an all-but-assured January runoff. However, several other surveys released in late September and early October have also found Warnock, who picked up an endorsement late last month from Barack Obama, in first as Loeffler and Collins battle it out for the second place runoff spot. And while Lieberman has been in fourth place for a while in most surveys, recent polls, including PPP and Landmark's, have also put his support in the single digits.
Warnock is also up with a new commercial that tells voters how to find him on the ballot in the 21-person(!) race. Warnock, who is first shown standing in line for lunch in an elementary school cafeteria and later donned in graduation robes, tells the audience, "When your last name begins with the letter 'W,' you get used to being at the end of the line. And just like I was at graduation, this election finds me there again."
The camera then shows a ballot as Warnock explains, "In the special election for U.S. Senate, the names on the ballot are listed in alphabetical order. So you have to look all the way down there to find Warnock." The candidate concludes, "I may be near the end of the alphabet and the ballot, but I'll always put Georgia first."
● MT-Sen: Senate Majority PAC has a new commercial tying Republican Sen. Steve Daines to China, a country he has spent months attacking in his own commercials. "Daines lived in China for years working for efforts to move factories and jobs to the tune of having 4,000 American workers laid off," a rancher identified as Cliff says, adding, "He's doing the bidding of China and they're calling him China's cheerleader in the United States Senate."
● NC-Sen: Politico reports that the NRSC has reserved an additional $3 million here.
● SC-Sen: Democrat Jaime Harrison is running digital ads ostensibly attacking former Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe, but his real goal is to increase Bledsoe's name recognition to give right-leaning voters an alternative to his true opponent, Republican Lindsey Graham. The far-right Bledsoe in fact dropped out of the race earlier this month and endorsed Graham, but his name will still appear on ballots. That's why Harrison is "criticizing" him as "Too Conservative" while also noting that he's "100% Pro-Trump, Pro-Gun, Pro-Life."
Bledsoe has generally earned just 2-3% when he's been tested in polls, but that could be enough to swing a close race. Similar efforts regarding Libertarian candidates have helped Democrats win several close races in Montana, but those have always been orchestrated by third-party groups. However, Harrison's record-shattering $57 million fundraising haul in the third quarter is allowing him to campaign in ways that few Senate hopefuls are ever able to.
More traditionally, Harrison has also unveiled a new TV ad aimed at his own supporters narrated by the celebrated actress Viola Davis, herself a Palmetto State native. "Something's happening in South Carolina," she says. "Hope that things can get better, faith that we can elect new leaders who put country before party, belief that elections shouldn't be about right versus left but about right versus wrong." The minute-long spot features a well-crafted segment 10 seconds in which a woman places a Harrison yard sign on her lawn, then glances cautiously upward, hoping for acceptance from her neighbor—who rewards her with his own cautious smile, which she returns.
● Polls:
- AZ-Sen: Trafalgar Group (R): Mark Kelly (D): 47, Martha McSally (R-inc): 45
- GA-Sen-A: Landmark Communications (R) for WSB TV: David Perdue (R-inc): 47, Jon Ossoff (D): 46, Shane Hazel (L): 2 (49-47 Trump)
- GA-Sen-A: Public Policy Polling (D): Ossoff (D): 44, Perdue (R-inc): 43, Hazel (L): 4 (47-46 Biden) (Aug.: 44-44 tie)
- IA-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Theresa Greenfield (D): 47, Joni Ernst (R-inc): 43 (49-49 presidential tie)
- MI-Sen: Baldwin Wallace University: Gary Peters (D-inc): 48, John James (R): 42 (50-43 Biden) (Sept.: 46-41 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Peters (D-inc): 43, James (R): 42 (48-40 Biden) (June: 41-31 Peters)
- MI-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Peters (D-inc): 47, James (R): 44 (52-46 Biden)
- MT-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D): Steve Bullock (D): 48, Steve Daines (R-inc): 48 (52-46 Trump) (July: 46-44 Bullock)
AZ-Sen: Trafalgar, which usually gives Donald Trump some of his friendliest numbers anywhere, also polled Arizona's presidential race this month. However, the presidential poll was in the field Oct. 6-8 while the Senate survey was done Oct. 6-9, so these aren't the same samples of voters.
MI-Sen: While Baldwin Wallace University finds Sen. Gary Peters doing about as well as Joe Biden, both YouGov and especially Siena find the incumbent running well behind the top of the ticket. The NYT writeup of its poll from Siena says, "Part of Mr. Peters's weakness is that he has thus far failed to match Mr. Biden's tallies among nonwhite voters, who disproportionately remain undecided."
It's possible that James, who would be Michigan's first Black senator, could win considerably more support from voters of color than Republicans usually get, though that's far from guaranteed. According to CNN's 2018 exit polls, James lost nonwhite voters 78-19 when he challenged Sen. Debbie Stabenow last cycle, which was slightly worse than GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Schuette's 77-19 deficit with this demographic.
House
● CA-50: Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar's newest ad goes after Republican Darrell Issa's history of wrongdoing, with a narrator kicking things off by saying that the former congressman "has a long record... a criminal record." The voiceover continues: "Issa pled guilty to an illegal weapons charge, and was arrested with tear gas and firearms. He's been charged with grand theft auto, suspected of arson, and even demoted in the military."
"And last year, Republicans held up Issa's bid for a Trump administration job after his FBI file raised concerns," the spot concludes, a post the Senate never confirmed him for thanks to his unsavory past.
● CO-03: A new DCCC ad goes hard at Republican Lauren Boebert over her many run-ins with the law, both criminal and civil. "Some people say rules are meant to be broken," the narrator begins. "Lauren Boebert really means it." The ad goes on to describe how Boebert "defied pandemic restrictions to keep her restaurant open," has "been arrested three times," and "was a no-show when summonsed to court." It concludes, "Now this law breaker, wants to be a lawmaker? C'mon." We've previously delved deep into Boebert's arrest history and her failings as a restaurateur.
● MI-06: The Congressional Leadership Fund is running another ad attacking Democrat Jon Hoadley over a blog he maintained in college in 2004 and 2005, using remarks that LGBTQ activists have said were taken out of context. The Victory Fund, which has endorsed Hoadley, has also called the ads homophobic (Hoadley is gay) and criticized Republican Rep. Fred Upton for not condemning the attacks.
● VA-05: In an unexpected move, the DCCC has begun advertising in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, a Republican-held seat that hadn't previously appeared in any media reports about the committee's TV ad reservations. The spot features two dudes wrestling as a narrator says, "Bob Good's been wrestling with some radically bad ideas," including "a tax scheme that adds $1.9 trillion to the debt and puts Social Security and Medicare at risk." (As you've probably figured out by now, Good himself was a wrestler and coach.) "During these tough times," the ad concludes, "Virginia can't afford another body slam from Bob Good."
According to a source who tracks Democratic media buys, the DCCC has laid out $140,000 to run this ad for the coming week. To date, the NRCC and CLF have spent $712,000 to boost Good.
● Polls:
- CA-01: Lake Research Partners (D) for Audrey Denney: Doug LaMalfa (R-inc): 49, Audrey Denney (D): 45 (June: 46-41 LaMalfa)
- FL-15: DCCC Analytics (D): Scott Franklin (R-inc): 42, Alan Cohn (D): 39 (46-45 Trump)
- FL-16: Change Research (D) for Margaret Good: Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 48, Margaret Good (D): 45 (50-46 Trump)
- FL-16: Data Targeting (R) for Vern Buchanan: Buchanan (R-inc): 52, Good (D): 37 (early Oct.: 53-37 Buchanan)
- NC-08: DCCC Analytics (D): Pat Timmons-Goodson (D): 42, Richard Hudson (R-inc): 39 (47-43 Biden)
CA-01: This is the first survey we've seen of the contest for this rural Northern California seat since Audrey Denney released her last internal. Trump won 56-37 here in 2016, while LaMalfa beat Denney 55-45 last cycle.
FL-15: The only other poll we've seen here was an early September internal for Alan Cohn from GQR that showed Scott Franklin up 49-42. There has been no serious national party spending on either side in this central Florida seat, which backed Trump 53-43 four years ago, though this DCCC internal shows the committee is keeping an eye on this race.
FL-16: This is the second week in a row we have dueling polls of this Sarasota-based seat, which supported Trump 54-43 in 2016. Margaret Good recently released an internal from GSG that showed Rep. Vern Buchanan and Trump up 49-43 and 49-47, respectively; Buchanan fired back with a Data Targeting survey that had him ahead 53-37. Neither of Buchanan's releases included presidential numbers.
NC-08: This DCCC poll is a bit better for Pat Timmons-Goodson than her late September internal from Brilliant Corners, which showed Rep. Richard Hudson and Trump ahead 44-42 and 47-44, respectively.
Republicans haven't released any numbers of their own from this 53-44 Trump seat, which includes Fayetteville and some of Charlotte's suburbs. Team Red is acting like this race is competitive, though, and the Congressional Leadership Fund has already spent over $540,000 against Timmons-Goodson.
Legislative
● Special Elections: There are four runoff special elections in Mississippi on tap for Tuesday. Special elections in Mississippi are officially nonpartisan so candidates are not identified by their party affiliation. Additionally, Mississippi is one of the most difficult to wrangle data from so we do not have past presidential results for these districts, although for state House races we do have results from 2019’s statewide slate.
MS-SD-15: This Republican seat that contains Starkville, home to Mississippi State University, became vacant when former Sen. Gary Jackson resigned in June. Educator Joyce Meek Yates will face businessman Bart Williams: In the first round of voting, Williams outpaced Yates 34-28. This seat has been solidly Republican in the past as Jackson had little trouble routinely winning re-election, including an unopposed run in the last election in 2019.
MS-SD-39: This Republican district in southern Mississippi became vacant when former Sen. Sally Doty was appointed to lead the Mississippi Public Utilities Staff. Attorney Jason Barrett is taking on Bank of Brookhaven chairman Bill Sones: Sones narrowly led Barrett 26-23 in the first round of voting. Like SD-15, this district is strongly Republican, and Doty, like Jackson, was unopposed in 2019.
The makeup of this chamber is 34-16 in favor of Republicans with these two seats vacant.
MS-HD-37: This Republican district just north of Starkville became vacant when former Rep. Gary Chism resigned in June. Former Lowndes County School District superintendent Lynn Wright is facing businessman David Chism, who is the cousin of the former representative. Wright nearly won a majority in round one, besting Chism 49-32.
This is a firmly Republican district that GOP Gov. Tate Reeves carried 64-35 on his way to a 52-47 statewide win. Gary Chism had little trouble winning re-election in this district, including 2019 when he faced no Democratic opposition and turned back Libertarian Vicky Rose 72-22. Interestingly, Rose ran in the first round of voting here this year and finished with 19%.
MS-HD-66: This district just south of Jackson is the only Democratic-held seat of the lot, and it became vacant when former Rep. Jarvis Dortch resigned in July. Former teacher Bob Lee Jr. is facing off against Jackson City Councilman De’Keither Stamps: Stamps led Lee 40-26 in the first round. Dortch was unopposed in both his 2015 and 2019 runs here, and Democratic candidates dominated in all of the statewide races in 2019, with Jim Hood prevailing by 71-28 for governor.
The makeup of this chamber is 73-45 in favor of Republicans, with one independent member and three seats (one in addition to these two) vacant.
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